Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Stocks Mixed into Final Hour as Positive Earnings Offset Economic Worries

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Internet longs, Restaurant longs and Computer longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The overall tone of the market is mildly negative today as the advance/decline line is slightly lower, sector performance is mixed and volume is above average. Energy shares are lower, even when oil was rising earlier in the day, which could be routine profit-taking or investors anticipating a significant top in the commodity, similar to the ones seen during prior Mid-east conflict fear-spikes. The Fed's Beige Book report was more dovish than I had expected. Fed fund futures now imply a 58% chance for a cut at the upcoming meeting, up from 38% yesterday. The 10-year yield is at session lows, falling 10 basis points to 4.55%. Stocks are rebounding a bit. Market leaders are gaining some upside traction. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on bargain-hunting, rising fed rate cut odds and short-covering.

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