Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Central Bank Hopes, Euro Bounce, Short-Covering, Metals&Mining/Drug Sector Strength
Broad Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: About Even
- Sector Performance: Mixed
- Volume: Slightly Below Average
- Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
- ISE Sentiment Index 75.0 -22.68%
- Total Put/Call .89 -24.58%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 79.79 +.87%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 155.61 +6.1%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 83.41 +1.1%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 283.45 +1.55%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 16.75 +.5 bp
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.75 +.5 bp
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% unch.
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $111.90/Metric Tonne +1.36%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -22.60 -8.2 points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.19 unch.
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating -131 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating +35 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my retail sector longs and emerging markets shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
1 comment:
On Monday, June 3, 2013, Turkey, TUR, plummeted, Japan, EWJ, and Japan Small Caps, JSC, and the Philippines, EPHE, traded lower, as the intraday chart of the S&P 500, SPY, manifested a parabolic rise, as Risk Assets, in particular the Small Cap Pure Value Stocks, RZV, such as the Junior Gold Miners, GDXJ, the Junior Gold Miners, GDXJ, Apparel Retailers DEST, CTRN, NWY, BEBE, BODY, BKE, PSUN, MW, WTSL, EXPR, GES, CBK, the Automobile Retailers, LAD, SAH, KMX, Recreational Vehicles, DW, WGO, and the Financial Services, such as WRLD, EEFT, ENV, GFIG, FXCM, rose, on higher Major World Currencies, DBV, and higher Emerging Market Currencies, CEW, as the US Dollar, $USD, UUP, traded lower, ignoring the WSJ report Weak signs for US output: Factories suffer worst slump since end of recession. US factories in May posted their worst month since the end of the recession, as weakness overseas overwhelmed a still-shaky manufacturing recovery at home.
Three signs of a stock market top.
1) Risk Assets peaking out. The rise in the Small Cap Pure Value Stocks, RZV, relative to the Small Cap Pure Value Stocks, RZV:RZG, has risen to a two year and six month high
2) Screencast reports that the SentimenTrader Smart/Dumb Money Index is now the lowest that it has been in more than two years meaning that lots of "smart money" has been getting out of the market and lots of "dumb money" has been pouring in.
3) Market Oracle reports Margin debt on the New York Stock Exchange has set a new all-time high. Margin debt is the amount of money borrowed to purchase stocks reached its all-time high in April 2013. Margin debt on the NYSE registered at $384.3 billion as the key stock indices hit new record highs. The highest margin debt ever reached prior to this was in July of 2007, when it stood just above $381.0 billion.
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