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Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Tuesday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 12:34 AM
Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:
  • Tsipras Seeks Greek Opposition Backing in Stalled Talks. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras sought to rally a consensus in parliament for his effort to secure bailout funds after his proposals to bolster the nation’s finances failed to satisfy his European creditors. “I want to address the political parties of the opposition: Will you back the national negotiating strategy to put an end to austerity?” Tsipras asked lawmakers in Athens on Monday, in an extraordinary debate to discuss the country’s stalled bailout review. Europe’s most-indebted state is locked in talks with euro-area countries and the International Monetary Fund over the terms attached to its 240 billion-euro ($260 billion) rescue. The standoff, which has left Greece dependent upon European Central Bank loans, risks leading to a default within weeks and its potential exit from the euro area.
  • Debt Could Derail China's Ambitions. China's Xi Jinping made a lot of grand promises over the weekend, pledging a new order where China and Chinese-led institutions such as the new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank would promote prosperity across the region. But he was on shaky ground -- literally. The Boao Forum where Xi spoke took place in Haikou, capital of China's island province of in Hainan, whose local government, it seems, may not be able to pay its debt this year.  
  • China Rongsheng Reports Negative Sales on Order Cancellations. China Rongsheng Heavy Industries Group Holdings Ltd., once the country’s largest private shipbuilder and now quickly running out of cash, reported negative revenue last year as it prepares to sell its shipbuilding business and buyers cancel orders. Sales fell 3.8 billion yuan ($612 million) into the red last year, compared with a positive 1.3 billion yuan in revenue the previous year. Net losses narrowed to 7.75 billion yuan, down from 8.69 billion yuan in 2013.
  • Asian Stocks Set for Best Quarter Since 2012; Oil Slumps. Asian stocks headed for their biggest quarterly advance since 2012 and the dollar strengthened against most peers amid speculation that central bank stimulus globally will continue to support asset prices. Crude oil fell for a third day. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.5 percent by 11:16 a.m. in Tokyo. 
  • Oil Set for Third Quarterly Drop as Deadline in Iran Talks Looms. Oil headed for a third quarterly loss as Iranian and Western diplomats worked toward a nuclear deal that may lead to the OPEC member increasing crude exports and worsening a global supply glut. Futures dropped as much as 1.7 percent in New York, falling for a third day. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov left the talks in Switzerland and will only return if an agreement is in sight, signaling negotiations may continue into the final hours leading to Tuesday’s deadline. U.S. crude stockpiles probably expanded further from a record last week, a Bloomberg survey showed before government data Wednesday.  
  • Cheap Oil Unlikely to Slow Growth of Renewables, Citigroup Says.
  • Iron Ore Sinks to 10-Year Low as Rio Rebuts Fortescue’s Cap Call. Iron ore is headed for the biggest quarterly loss since at least 2009 as surging low-cost supplies from Australia and Brazil swamp the global market, spurring a glut as demand from China slows. Ore with 62 percent content at Qingdao, China, sank 26 percent since the start of the year, according to daily data from Metal Bulletin Ltd. The raw material retreated to $52.69 a dry metric ton on Monday. That’s the lowest since 2004-2005, based on data from Metal Bulletin and annual benchmarks compiled by Clarkson Plc, the world’s largest shipbroker.
  • Fed’s Fischer Says Regulators Must Keep Watch on Shadow Banking. Regulators must better monitor and consider new rules for the growing proportion of lending being done by non-bank financial firms, the Federal Reserve’s second highest official said on Monday. “Non-bank firms and activities can pose the same key vulnerabilities as banks, including high leverage, excessive maturity transformation, and complexity, all of which can lead to financial instability,” Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said in the text of remarks prepared for delivery at a financial markets conference in Stone Mountain, Georgia.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • As China Expands Its Navy, the U.S. Grows Wary. Washington is divided over whether Beijing should be viewed as naval partner or potential adversary.
  • The Capitulationist. The Obama administration refuses to negotiate openly, lest the extent of its diplomatic surrender to Iran be prematurely and fatally exposed. 
Fox News: 
  • Commencing jihad: ISIS tweets photos of military 'graduation'.
MarketWatch.com:
  • Four things you need to know about ‘China’s World Bank'. 
Zero Hedge:
  • Japan "Wakes Up," Joins China-led Development Bank (And Then Backs Out).
  • Steve Keen: The Deliberate Blindness Of Our Central Planners. (video)
  • Summing Up The Total Chaos That Reigns In Greek "Negotiations".
  • Wages & Lowflation (Or Why Rick Santelli Is Right). (video)
  • JP Morgan Has A "Problem" With Emerging Markets. (graph)
  • The Fed's Startling Student Debt Numbers That Every Young Person Should See.
  • Just One Chart. (graph)
Business Insider:
  • Hedge funder Steve Cohen is starting a venture capital fund.
Evening Recommendations 
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are unch. to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 110.5 -2.5 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 60.5 -.75 basis poi5nt.
  • S&P 500 futures -.18%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.09%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (CONN)/.64
  • (MOV)/.20
  • (DCO)/.29 
Economic Releases
9:00 am EST
  • ISM Milwaukee for March is estimated to rise to 51.5 versus 50.32 in Febuary.
  • S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA in January is estimated to rise +.65% versus a +.87% gain in December.
9:45 am EST
  • The Chicago Purchasing Manager for March is estimated to rise to 51.8 versus 45.8 in February.
10:00 am EST
  • Consumer Confidence for March is estimated at 96.4 versus 96.4 in February.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's George speaking, Fed's Lacker speaking, Fed's Mester speaking, German retail sales report, weekly US retail sales reports, (APD) investor day and the (MOS) analyst day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

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