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Wednesday, March 18, 2015

Wednesday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 12:05 AM
Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:  
  • Greeks Lining Up for Social Services Feel Cash Crunch Biting. While Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras grapples with cash reserves that risk running out this month, concern is growing over how his seven-week-old government will find the money to pay about 1.5 billion euros ($1.59 billion) in monthly wages and pensions without a deal with European partners. Tsipras says there’s no chance Greeks won’t be paid, and also told creditors like the International Monetary Fund that they’ll be reimbursed.   
  • What Would Capital Controls Mean for Greece? (video)
  • Russians See Most Nations Accepting Crimea Takeover, Poll Says. Most Russians believe that other countries will accept Crimea as part of Russia within a few years, despite international sanctions imposed in response to the takeover, a poll showed. Seventy percent of Russians think a majority of countries will recognize President Vladimir Putin’s annexation of the Black Sea peninsula from Ukraine during the next few years, while 8 percent say it will never happen, according to the survey to be published on Wednesday by the state-run All-Russia Center for the Study of Public Opinion, known as VTsIOM. Fifteen percent think recognition will come after a decade or more.
  • China Home Prices Fall in More Cities Amid Economic Slowdown. China’s home prices dropped in more cities last month as an economic slowdown weighed on demand even after the government removed property curbs and reduced borrowing costs. New-home prices fell in 66 of the 70 cities tracked by the government from a month earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday, compared with 64 in January. Prices rose in two cities and were unchanged in another two.
  • Which Countries Are Most Vulnerable to a China Slowdown? (video)
  • Wall Street Traders Run for Cover as Brazilians Take the Streets. Finance Minister Joaquim Levy’s attempt to restore investor confidence in Brazil is being undermined by deepening political turmoil and public dissatisfaction. Traders pushed up the cost to insure the nation’s debt to an almost six-year high on Monday, one day after more than a million Brazilians took the streets to protest government corruption, higher taxes and President Dilma Rousseff’s handling of the economy. The credit-default swaps have risen faster this year than those for Russia, India and China, the three others that make up the BRIC group of nations.  
  • Asian Stocks Little Changed as Investors Await Fed Statement. Asia’s benchmark equities gauge was little changed before a Federal Reserve meeting at which officials will assess the economy and debate the timing of the first U.S. interest-rate increase since 2006. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined less than 0.1 percent to 144.80 as of 9:00 a.m. in Tokyo, ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision and policy statement due Wednesday.
  • Oil Bonds Lose Investors $7 Billion in 10 Days. Investors lured back into junk-rated energy bonds by their juicy yields are getting burned. Oil prices have fallen more than 15 percent since March 4 to a six-year low of $43.5, wiping out $7 billion of market value of high-yield debt issued by energy companies. Prices on $1.45 billion of notes sold less than two weeks ago by Energy XXI Ltd., an oil producer that was being squeezed by its lenders, have fallen by as much as 10 percent. Comstock Resources Inc.’s $700 million of securities have declined by more than 7 percent since March 6.
  • Iron Ore Price Outlook Cut by Australia as Global Supplies Surge. Australia, the world’s biggest iron ore exporter, lowered its outlook for prices this year as rising shipments expand a global glut. Rates will average $60 a metric ton this year, the Department of Industry and Science said in a report. That compares with $63 forecast in December and $88 in 2014, it said.
  • Apple(AAPL) Is Out to Blow Up the Cable TV Model. After years of complaining about having to pay for obscure TV channels they never watch, American consumers might finally be getting their way. The industry buzzword is “skinny bundles,” or Web services from providers such as Dish Network Corp. and Apple Inc. that offer just a few popular channels at a lower price. 
Wall Street Journal:
  • Israeli Election Too Close to Call. Netanyahu has an edge in coalition building. The Israeli election was too close to call after exit polls showed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his top challenger in a virtual tie, but smaller parties were expected to give the conservative leader an edge in building a ruling coalition. Mr. Netanyahu declared victory for his Likud party over Isaac Herzog’s Zionist Union before the release of any official results in a race marked in its final hours by the prime... 
  • Fed to Markets: No More Promises. Move away from explicit interest-rate guidance could unnerve investors used to some measure of clarity. The Federal Reserve is about to inject uncertainty back into financial markets after spending years trying to calm investors’ nerves with explicit assurances that interest rates would remain low. Ahead of their policy meeting that ends Wednesday, Fed officials have signaled they want to drop the latest iteration in a succession of low-rate promises—a line in their policy statement pledging to be “patient” before deciding to raise...
  • Congress Deserves a Vote on Iran by Joseph I. Lieberman. Large bipartisan majorities in the legislature created the sanctions. Ending them warrants legislative review.
Fox News:
  • State Department: No record of Clinton signing 'separation' form. (video)
CNBC:
  • A hidden bear market in Dow threatens all stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has a hidden bear market going. A third of the members of the blue chip barometer have hit new 52-week lows this year. By no coincidence, the Dow briefly turned negative for 2015 Tuesday.
  • Quicksilver Resources files for Chapter 11 protection. Quicksilver Resources and its U.S. units filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Tuesday, adding to a list of oil and gas producers who have folded amid low oil prices. The company listed assets of $1.21 billion and liabilities of $1.35 billion in its bankruptcy petition in a Delaware court.
  • Dalio: We're 'cautious' ahead of Fed move. (video) The manager of the world's biggest hedge fund is playing it safe ahead of looming interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
Zero Hedge:
  • Hedge Fund Manager Fears "Sudden, Pervasive Loss Of Faith" In Markets; Says "It's A Truly Scary Time".
  • Europe's Haves & Have-Nots: Greek Bulls "Throw In The Towel... They've Gone Plain Nuts".
  • Greek PM To Meet With Putin Amid Cash Crunch.
  • Big Data Algos 'Are' The Singularity & They're Coming To A Stock Market Near You.
  • The Price Instability Mandate? Over 2000 Dow Point Swings In 6 Days. (graph)
  • Stocks Give Up "Fed Hope" Gains 'Despite' Economic Data & Crude Collapse. (graph)
  • WTI Plunges To $42 Handle On Massive API Inventory Build. (graph)
  • The Much-Touted Growth Prospects Of BRICS Is Nothing More Than A Commodity-Boom-Fuelled Mirage.
  • Energy Credit Risk Soars Most In 2015 As Bankruptcies, Liquidations Loom. (graph)
  • The End Is Kind Of Nigh. (graph) You can’t solve a debt problem with more debt. That’s what the Fed is offering. And that is what the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are offering too. They are committed to this policy of providing more and more credit to a world that is already drowning in it. For example, what is 1.1% yield on a Spanish 10-year government note if not an invitation for trouble? Or how about a 10-year German government note with a yield of 0.2%? It’s impossible to know what will happen exactly. But someone is going to lose money. These yields are unnatural. And downright dangerous.
Business Insider:
  • One chart makes clear why the next year of retail sales will be a big disappointment. (graph)
  • Adobe(ADBE) slides 4% because fewer people subscribed to its software than expected.
  • China came THIS close to another massive property developer default.
  • Alibaba(BABA) is about to open the floodgates for insiders holding 437 million shares.
  • Health insurer Premera Blue Cross hacked — 11 million customers' information compromised.
  • Oracle(ORCL) has another solid quarter with its cloud business growing well.
Financial Times:
  • IMF fears emerging markets instability. The head of the International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday that emerging markets are set to face a renewed period of economic instability when US interest rates rise this year, forecasting a repeat of 2013’s damaging “taper tantrum” episode of capital flight and rapid currency depreciation.
Welt:
  • EU's Moscovici Criticizes Greece for 'Misuse' of the Past. EU Economic Commissioner Pierre Moscovici says serves no purpose to distort the past for present political purposes by mixing demands for war reparations with discussions over a new bailout, citing interview. Doesn't exclude a Greek pullout from the euro, won't keep Greece in the euro zone "at any price" or unless strict conditions acceptable to both sides are met.
Evening Recommendations 
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 106.0 unch.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 65.75 -.5 basis point.
  • S&P 500 futures +.02%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.04%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (FDX)/1.88
  • (GIS)/.67
  • (CTAS)/.78
  • (GES)/.57
  • (MLHR)/.34
  • (JBL)/.44
  • (WSM)/1.52
Economic Releases
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +4,111,110 barrels versus a +4,512,000 barrel increase the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -866,670 barrels versus a -187,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -922,220 barrels versus a +2,527,000 barrel gain the prior week.
2:00 pm EST
  • The FOMC is expected to leave the benchmark Fed Funds rate at .25%.
Upcoming Splits
  • (V) 4-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Yellen speaking, Fed Policy Update and Econ. Projections, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report and the JPMorgan Insurance conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by real estate and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

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