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Wednesday, March 18, 2015

Thursday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 11:40 PM
Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • ECB Said to Grant Greece Less Emergency Liquidity Than Requested. The European Central Bank raised the maximum amount of emergency liquidity available to Greek lenders by 400 million euros ($435 million), less than the Greek central bank requested, people familiar with the decision said. The increase was approved by the ECB’s Governing Council on Wednesday, the people said, asking not to be identified as the council meeting was private. Greece requested about 900 million euros, one of the people said. 
  • Merkel-Tsipras Talks: What's at Stake for Greece? (video)
  • Why the Yen’s Slide Isn’t Bringing Japan’s Factories, Jobs Back. Crows circle around the tract of cleared land that was once Hoya Corp.’s Pentax camera plant in Mashiko. All that’s left is a sign directing employees to a dormitory and gymnasium, both pulled down years ago when a strong yen was driving manufacturers abroad. This was once part of Japan’s industrial heartland, a place that shows little sign of benefiting from Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s success in weakening the currency and battling deflation. While a 36 percent tumble in the yen has stoked record profits at big exporters like Toyota Motor Corp., the jobs lost here have yet to return.  
  • Emerging Currency Rout Signals Stocks Are Next: Chart of the Day. (graph) The currency market has often served in the recent past as an early-warning system for emerging-market stock investors. Right now, it’s flashing red.
  • Asia Bonds, Stocks, U.S. Futures Jump on Fed; Dollar Down. Asian bonds and stocks outside of Japan climbed with U.S. index futures after the Federal Reserve signaled interest rates will rise at a slower pace than previously forecast. The dollar tumbled, while gold rose. Yields on 10-year debt from Australia to Japan slipped at least three basis points by 10:01 a.m. in Tokyo, with Treasury rates at a six-week low. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index jumped 0.8 percent, set for a six-month high, even as Japan’s Topix index dropped amid gains in the yen. 
  • Gold Extends Rally as Fed Signals Slower Pace of Rate Increases. Gold extended a rebound from the lowest price in three months after the Federal Reserve indicated that interest rates may rise at a slower pace than estimated. Gold for immediate delivery added as much as 0.9 percent to $1,177.96 an ounce in Singapore and was at $1,171.29 by 9:31 a.m. in Singapore, according to Bloomberg generic pricing. The metal climbed 1.6 percent on Wednesday, the most since January, after slumping to $1,142.92 on March 17, the lowest since Dec. 1, amid speculation the Fed would soon boost borrowing costs.
  • Fed Bid to Decouple From Global Easing Hampered by Dollar's Rise. Federal Reserve officials are finding it harder than they first thought to decouple U.S. monetary policy from the rest of the world. While policy makers opened the door to an interest-rate increase later this year, Fed Chair Janet Yellen suggested they were in no hurry and said the pace of tightening, once begun, would be slower than previously anticipated.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Low Inflation Argues for Fed Patience. If today’s low inflation persists, fighting the next recession will be hard. The U.S. economy will be better-positioned for the next recession if interest rates are higher when the downturn starts. Paradoxically, the best way to achieve that may be to keep rates lower now. As the Federal Reserve meets today, the case for lifting rates from zero looks solid. 
  • Banks Struggle to Unload Oil Loans. Citigroup(C), Goldman(GS), UBS and others face losses as investors balk at riskiness of energy sector. Citigroup Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., UBS AG and other large banks face tens of millions of dollars in losses on loans they made to energy companies last year, a sign of investor jitters in a sector battered by the oil slump. 
  • Investors Raise Alarm Over Liquidity Shortage. Regulators also worried falling trading volumes could disrupt markets. Central banks across the world have turned on the money-supply taps, but investors and regulators are increasingly worried about a shortage of liquidity that they say could lead to severe disruption in financial markets.
  • ObamaCare for Arms Control. The Iran nuclear deal has the same political weaknesses as the Affordable Care Act. The Iran nuclear deal is going to be the ObamaCare of arms-control agreements—a substantive mess undermined by a failure to build adequate political support. Next Tuesday is the deadline for completing the “political” terms of an agreement with Iran. “Technical” details arrive in June. From news reporting on the negotiations, it appears the agreement is turning into a virtual Rube Goldberg machine, a patchwork of fixes that its creators will claim somehow limits Iran’s nuclear breakout period to “a year.”
Fox News:
  • New rift opens between Obama, Netanyahu after election victory. (video) After staying mum on Israeli issues in the run-up to the election, the White House on Wednesday broke its silence -- answering Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's victory with fresh criticism and making clear that a new rift has opened between U.S. and Israeli leaders, this time over Palestinian statehood.
MarketWatch.com:
  • Why the American Dream is unraveling, in 4 charts.  (graph)
Zero Hedge:
  • Here Is Why The Fed Can't Hike Rates By Even 0.25%. (graph)
  • Greek Bank Deposit Outflows Spike As Capital Controls Concern Spreads. (graph)
  • "A Chaotic Balance Of Terror" - The Greek Government's Four Scenarios.
  • Just One Chart. (graph)
  • Fed Growth Cut Unleashes Panic Buying Of Everything; Dollar Plunges Most Since 2009. (graph)
  • Pushing On A String: The Fed's Spectacular Failure To Stimulate Housing. (graph)
  • "Bulletproof" Fortescue Pulls $2.5 Billion Offering Amid Slumping Iron Ore Prices.
  • Obama Administration Sets New Record For Censoring & Denying-Access-To Government Documents.
Business Insider:
  • Yahoo(YHOO) just pulled out of China and axed at least 200 employees.
  • Putin just made a huge decision that may explain his strange disappearance.
  • A Russia-Ukraine peace plan just hit another snag. A peace plan to end the conflict in eastern Ukraine came under renewed strain on Wednesday, with Ukraine and Russia clashing publicly over the next steps and further Ukrainian military casualties from rebel attacks testing a fragile ceasefire.
Reuters:
  • Target(TGT) to lift minimum wage to $9 an hour, matching rivals. Target Corp next month will raise the minimum wage for all of its workers to $9 an hour, matching moves made by rivals including Wal-Mart Stores Inc and TJX Cos, a source familiar with the matter said. The move comes in the face of pressure from labor groups and allies calling for a "living wage" at retailers and fast-food companies across the country, as well as the lowest unemployment rate in more than six years. Target shares fell 1 percent in extended trade. The company has said it does not disclose wage levels.
Evening Recommendations 
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.0 -4.0 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 63.5 -2.25 basis points.
  • S&P 500 futures +.20%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.25%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (LEN)/.45
  • (MIK)/.74
  • (TECD)/2.03
  • (VNCE)/.27
  • (CTRP)/.09
  • (MFRM)/.48
  • (NKE)/.84
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Current Account Deficit for 4Q is estimated at -$104.1B versus -$100.3B in 3Q.
  • Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to rise to 293K versus 289K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2400K versus 2418K prior. 
10:00 am EST
  • The Philly Fed Business Outlook Index for March is estimated to rise to 7.0 versus 5.2 in February.
  • The Leading Index for February is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in January.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Tarullo speaking, Swiss trade balance data, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, Bloomberg Economic Expectations Index for March and the (TSLA) Range Press Conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and real estate shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

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