Bloomberg:
- Russian Opposition in Despair After Nemtsov as Putin Era Endures. Russia’s liberal opposition is in despair after the Friday night slaying of Nemtsov in the Kremlin’s shadow. While the murder elicited international condemnation and sparked the largest opposition gathering since the protests of 2011-2012 against President Vladimir Putin’s rule, rank-and-file activists say the Russian leader looks stronger than ever.
- Japan Public Debt is Keeping BNP's Chief Credit Analyst Awake at Night. For most of her career, Mana Nakazora has taken a pre-dawn train to work regardless of whether she arrived home just hours earlier. Her colleagues describe BNP Paribas SA’s Tokyo head of investment research as a powerhouse, and she was Japan’s No. 1 bond picker from 2010 to 2012 and No. 2 for the last two years in Nikkei Veritas newspaper polls. Making it to the top in an industry whose corporate bond sales exceeded $70 billion last year can be tough.
- Macau Analyst Who Predicted Stock Drop Says Worst Is Yet to Come. The worst is yet to come for Macau casinos after February gaming revenue plunged the most on record, according to one of the few analysts who correctly predicted the stocks would fall this year. Gaming revenue will keep sliding through mid-year and dividends will get cut as the cost of new capacity eats into free-cash flow, leaving share valuations too expensive, said Jamie Zhou, an analyst at Macquarie Securities in Hong Kong. Zhou was one of just two analysts tracked by Bloomberg with sell ratings on Sands China Ltd. and Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd. when he started covering the shares in December.
- Rajan Cuts India Rates in Unscheduled Move After Modi Budget. India’s central bank lowered interest rates in an unscheduled move for the second time this year, a sign of approval for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first full-year budget. Governor Raghuram Rajan cut the benchmark repurchase rate to 7.5 percent from 7.75 percent, the Reserve Bank of India said in a statement on Wednesday. The RBI will seek to bring the inflation rate “to the mid-point” of the inflation target of 4 percent plus or minus 2 percent by the end of a two-year period starting in the fiscal year through March 2017, Rajan said.
- Asian Stocks Retreat on Yen as Aussie Bonds Decline. Asian stocks fell, dragging down the regional benchmark index from an almost six-month high, as a strengthening yen weighed on Japanese exporters. Australian bonds fell after economic growth data, while crude oil traded above $50 a barrel. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.4 percent by 11:12 a.m. in Tokyo, while Japan’s Topix lost 1 percent and Nissan Motor Co. sank 2.2 percent.
- Here's the Latest Sign the Oil-Price Plunge Is Hitting the Job Market. (graph) As investors prepare for the release of the February U.S. employment data on Friday, we're getting more inklings of how the shakeout in the oil industry will impact the jobs market, and it doesn't look great: Demand for workers in energy-related occupations is plunging.
- Yellen Says Fed Seeks to Avert ‘Capture’ by Banks It Oversees. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, countering criticism from members of Congress, said the central bank is trying to avoid being too cozy with the Wall Street firms it supervises and wants to ensure that regulators aren’t afraid to confront the financial industry. “The risk of regulatory capture is something the Federal Reserve takes very seriously and works very hard to prevent,” Yellen said in remarks prepared for a speech in New York on Tuesday night. “It is important that anyone serving the Fed feel safe speaking up when they have concerns about bias toward industry, and that those concerns be addressed.”
- Shelby Says He Will Seek Bipartisan Legislation Aimed at Fed. The head of the powerful Senate Banking Committee signaled he wants to work with two Democratic critics of the Federal Reserve to fashion legislation aimed at the Fed after a hearing in which lawmakers of both parties attacked the central bank’s record. “I do see some interests that might be put together hopefully in a legislative package,” Richard Shelby, Republican of Alabama, said Tuesday in a brief interview in Washington. “What we’re going to do is continue hearings and see what we can fashion or bring together.”
- Netanyahu’s Bet: Congress Will Emerge Dominant in Iran Debate. Israeli leader turns to lawmakers to toughen and broaden nuclear agreement. In appealing to U.S. lawmakers to steer away from the emerging international nuclear deal with Iran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is betting he can use Congress to either circumvent the White House’s diplomacy or at least significantly toughen and broaden the terms of any deal.
- Insurers’ Biggest Fear: A Health-Law Death Spiral. Supreme Court decision on tax credits could drive up premiums in some states. As the Supreme Court hears arguments on Wednesday in the latest challenge to the Affordable Care Act, health insurers are struggling to prepare for a decision that could unravel the marketplaces created by the law.
- Jeff Immelt’s Overhaul of GE(GE) Impeded by Falling Oil Prices. CEO’s rebuilding of General Electric still hasn’t satisfied many investors, and now there’s this oil business.
- Pro-Growth, Pro-Family Tax Reform. by Mike Lee and Marco Rubio. Cut the corporate rate to 25%.For individuals and families, reduce the current seven brackets to two: 15% and 35%. Six years after the Great Recession officially ended, most Americans can sense that the U.S. economy is still operating below its full potential. Far too many Americans remain unemployed, underemployed or stuck in jobs with stagnant wages and narrow horizons. Many are beginning to wonder: Is this the new normal? We don’t believe it is.
- The Clinton Rules. Foreign donors and private email show how Bill and Hillary work. Hillary Clinton hasn’t even begun her expected presidential candidacy, but already Americans are being reminded of the political entertainment they can expect. To wit, the normal rules of government ethics and transparency apply to everyone except Bill and Hillary.
- Ex-Iranian hostages agree with Bibi: Tehran can't be trusted. They dealt with the Iranian regime first-hand more than three decades ago, when it was founded in an act of war against the U.S., and several survivors of the hostage crisis say the idea of the U.S. negotiating with an unrepentant Tehran makes their blood boil.
- Western leaders hint at more Russian sanctions over Ukraine. (video) U.S. President Barack Obama and European leaders on Tuesday warned Russia that they were ready to step up sanctions if there were further violations of a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine, officials said. The threats came in statements issued after a video conference that brought together Obama and the leaders of Britain, France, Germany and Italy, as well as the head of the European Council.
- Crude Parallels: A River Of Denials. (graph)
Quartz:
- The latest signs China’s trillions in debt are getting tricky to handle. The rate cuts highlight the underlying worry that money is dangerously scarce—and that insolvent companies could easily run out of cash. Here’s a breakdown of the problem:
- CBO: U.S. cash may last until November with no debt limit hike. The Congressional Budget Office said on Tuesday that if the U.S. federal debt limit is not raised, the U.S. Treasury Department will exhaust all of its borrowing capacity and run out of cash by October or November, slightly later than a previous forecast.
- Only mass default will end the world's addiction to debt. As global debt rises off the scale, creditors stand to take a huge hit in a threatened tsunami of defaults.
- Eurozone faces first regional bankruptcy as debt debacle stalks Austria's Carinthia. Fitch has stripped Austria of its AAA rating, adding that 'within a short space of time the debt dynamics of Austria have deteriorated significantly'.
- None of note
- Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 101.0 +3.0 basis points.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 61.50 +1.5 basis points.
- S&P 500 futures -.11%.
- NASDAQ 100 futures -.06%.
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (ANF)/1.16
- (AEO)/.34
- (BF/B)/.86
- (PETM)/1.38
- (TSL)/.13
- (CTRIP)/-.10
- (HRB)/-.13
8:15 am EST
- The ADP Employment Change for February is estimated to rise to 219K versus 213K in January..
- Final Markit US Services PMI for February is estimated at 57.0 versus versus a prior estimate of 57.0.
- ISM Non-Manufacturing for February is estimated to fall to 56.5 versus 56.7 in January.
- Bloomberg
consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of
+3,887,500 barrels versus a +8,427,000 barrel gain the prior week.
Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,762,500 barrels versus a
-3,118,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate supplies are
estimated to fall by -2,187,500 barrels versus a -2,711,000 barrel
decline the prior week.
- Fed's Beige Book.
- None of note
- The Fed's George speaking, Fed's Fisher speaking, Fed's Evans speaking, Eurozone Services PMI, weekly MBA mortgage applications report, UBS Consumer Conference, (FAST) Feb. sales release, (XOM) analyst meeting, (CAB) investor day and the (HON) investor conference could also impact trading today.
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