Bloomberg:
- Russia to Bury Slain Opposition Leader as Allies Seek Momentum. (video) Russians prepared for the funeral of slain opposition leader Boris Nemtsov as his allies tried to galvanize supporters for a new wave of protests against President Vladimir Putin. Nemtsov’s funeral was due to take place at Moscow’s Troekurovskoe cemetery on Tuesday. He was shot four times in the back while walking on a bridge just steps from the Kremlin last week before he was slated to lead a protest against Putin.
- Conspiracies Swirl Over Moscow Murder. The contract-style murder last Friday night of Boris Nemtsov, a vocal critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin, has led to accusations of Kremlin complicity but also to a slew of competing theories involving everything from the CIA to Islamic militants and Ukrainian nationalists. Many of the as many as 50,000 people protesting Nemtsov’s death at a rally on Sunday implicated the government in the murder. A political cartoon reproduced as a poster by some attendees showed a picture of the Kremlin bristling with security cameras that were in fact pistols. But Putin supporters have been just as active in offering their theories.
- Exxon’s(XOM) Russia Exposure Surges as Long View Outweighs Sanctions. Exxon Mobil Corp. shook off the chill of sanctions and has continued to snap up oil drilling rights in Russia, giving it larger exploration holdings in Vladimir Putin’s backyard than in the U.S. Taking the long view, Exxon boosted its Russian holdings to 63.7 million acres last year from 11.4 million at the end of 2014, according to data from U.S. regulatory filings. That dwarfs the 14.6 million acres of rights Exxon holds in the U.S., which until last year was its largest exploration prospect.
- Goldman Partner Who Called Japan's Demise Sees Similarities With China. Forecasts for China to surpass the U.S. as the world’s main economic power are misplaced. So says an observer who foresaw Japan’s eventual demise a year before its land-price bubble began to burst. “The vulnerabilities in China today are very similar to the vulnerabilities in Japan,” said Roy Smith, 76, who was a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. partner when he wrote a column saying Japan’s rise as a financial hegemon was done. “Nobody agrees with me. But they didn’t agree with me in 1990, so at least I have one right.” Among the risks: bad loans, overpriced stocks and a frothy property market are flashing danger for China’s economy and putting pressure on a fragile financial system -- similar to conditions that triggered Japan’s fall, said Smith, a finance professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business. A further parallel is the burden of an aging population, with mounting pension and health-care costs, he says.
- RBA Keeps Key Rate Unchanged as Currency Decline Eases Pressure. The Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly kept interest rates unchanged as a weaker currency helps ease pressure on an economy grappling with tumbling commodity prices. The overnight cash rate target was held at 2.25 percent, Governor Glenn Stevens said in a statement Tuesday following a board meeting in Melbourne. The decision was predicted by 11 of 29 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, while 18 saw a cut. Markets had priced in about a 60 percent chance of a reduction.
- Asian Stocks Follow U.S. Shares Higher on Consumer Spending, Yen. Asian stocks rose after U.S. equities climbed to records as rising consumer spending signaled strength in the world’s largest economy. Japanese shares gained after the yen weakened. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.1 percent to 146.31 as of 9:02 a.m. in Tokyo. The Topix index added 0.4 percent.
- L-Shaped Oil Recovery Flattens V-Shaped Market Optimists. Get ready for an L-shaped oil recovery. A growing consensus is emerging from the likes of BP Plc, the International Energy Agency, shale wildcatters and even the Saudis that a near-term recovery to $100-a-barrel crude isn’t in the cards. Instead, expect a range of $50 to $60 for at least the next few years. When oil prices plunged sharply in 2008, they rebounded almost as quickly. Several months ago, industry and government touted the same U or V-shaped recovery this time out. On closer examination, a new factor in the marketplace -- shale oil -- has changed their minds.
- U.S. Steers Clear of Tikrit, Cites Iran Role in Support of Iraqis. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fighters were on the ground with Iraqi units, U.S. official says. Iraq’s latest push to retake the Sunni city of Tikrit from Islamic State extremists has thrown a new spotlight on the role being assumed by Iran in assisting Baghdad in its fight to regain control of the country. U.S. officials said Iran is supporting the offensive to retake Tikrit, supplying artillery, rocket fire and aerial drones.
- Inside Alibaba, the Sharp-Elbowed World of Chinese E-Commerce. Merchants use fake orders, shell storefronts to gain prominence on Alibaba’s marketplaces.
- Foreign Banks Brace for Fed Stress Tests. Firms hire staff, overhaul operations to meet tougher requirements. The Federal Reserve’s growing scrutiny of global banks has set off a scramble among foreign firms as they staff up and revamp operations to meet the central bank’s rising expectations. The Fed’s stress tests are expected to find shortcomings in risk management at the U.S. units of some foreign banks, including Deutsche Bank AG and Banco Santander SA.
- Israel and the Democrats. Chuck Schumer and other liberal fence-sitters will have their reputations stained forever if they let this Iran deal pass. The Democratic Party is on the cusp of abandoning the state of Israel. That’s a shame, though less for Israel than it is for the Democrats. The Democrats’ historic support for the Jewish state has always been what’s best about the party. The understanding not only that Jews are entitled to a state, but also that a liberal democracy is entitled to defend itself—robustly and sometimes pre-emptively—against illiberal enemies, is why the...
- Fed has 'golden' chance to tighten: Druckenmiller. (video) To avoid wreaking havoc on markets, the Federal Reserve should raise interest rates sooner rather than later, Stanley Druckenmiller said on Monday.
- The Problem With The Forward EPS Hockeystick: Millions Of Americans Are About To Lose Their Jobs. (graph)
- A Who's Who Of Awful Times To Invest. (graph)
- Retirement At The End Of A Rope. (graph)
Evening Recommendations
- None of note
- Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 98.0 -.25 basis point.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 60.0 +.75 basis point.
- S&P 500 futures -.08%.
- NASDAQ 100 futures -.03%.
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (AZO)/6.37
- (BBY)/1.35
- (DKS)/1.22
- (NAV)/-1.17
- (CECO)-.24
- (SWHC)/.12
9:45 am EST
- ISM New York for February.
- IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism for March is estimated at 47.5 versus 47.5 in February.
- Total Vehicle Sales for February are estimated to rise to 16.7M versus 16.56M in January.
- (NJR) 2-for-1
- (HBI) 4-for-1
- The Fed's Yellen speaking, China HSBC Services PMI, weekly US retail sales reports, Canadian GDP report, Pac Crest Emerging Tech Summit, JPMorgan Aviation/Transport/Industrials Conference, BofA Consumer/Retail Conference, (TGT) investor meeting, (JNPR) analyst update and the (ADP) investor day could also impact trading today.
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