Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines 

Bloomberg:

• Macquarie: Emerging Markets Are Not Facing a 1997-Style Crisis—They're Facing Something Worse. Instead of sharp heart attack (a la 1997), it is far more likely that EM economies and markets would face an extended period that can be best described as a “chronic disease”, with limited (if any) cures or exits, punctuated by occasional significant flare-ups (short of an outright heart attack). In many ways it is likely to be a far more painful and insidious process. In the meantime, any signs of significant strain (either at a country or corporate level) could easily freeze up the emerging market universe. The crux of their argument is that despite the difficulties of 1997, its effects were mitigated by rising global leverage, liquidity, and trade shortly thereafter. This time around, those factors might not be there.

• Hedge Fund Returning 107% Sees More China, Emerging-Market Pain. (video) Bakhramov finally got his wish in July and August, as did a handful of managers who made multi-year wagers that emerging-market stocks and currencies would begin to tumble, starting with a downturn in China. Forum’s main fund notched a 24 percent gain in July and jumped 60 percent the following month, fueled by short positions in the Chinese yuan and the Taiwanese and Singapore dollars, according to a letter to investors obtained by Bloomberg. All told, the fund has soared 107 percent this year through August. "We’re basically long volatility," Bakhramov, who previously structured asset-backed securities at Credit Suisse Group AG, said in an interview last week. "We’ll have a lot of tremors and then a big shakeout. This is just the first."

• Japan's Exports Add to Abe's Woes as China Slowdown Saps Demand. Japan’s export growth slowed for a second month, signaling waning overseas support for an economy that’s already beset by weakness at home. The value of shipments rose 3.1 percent in August from a year earlier, compared with estimates compiled by Bloomberg for a 4.3 percent increase. Imports dropped 3.1 percent, leaving a deficit of 569.7 billion yen ($4.7 billion), according the figures released by the finance ministry Thursday. Exports to China fell 4.6 percent as a market rout and economic slowdown in Japan’s biggest trading partner sapped demand. Disappointing data in recent months has raised concern on the outlook for economic growth after a contracted last quarter and an inflation rate that’s slid back to zero. 

• Asian Stocks Advance Second Day as Materials Shares Lead Gains. Asian stocks rose on the final stretch of the countdown to the Federal Reserve’s policy decision as material shares led gains. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index increased 0.5 percent to 129.12 as of 9:02 a.m. in Tokyo, advancing for a second day.

• Ray Dalio: We Will Have a Worrisome Downturn. (video)

Wall Street Journal:

• Wall Street Has Doubts About Fed Lifting Interest Rates. Skepticism reflects concerns about the economy and the state of the markets. Wall Street is skeptical that the Federal Reserve has room to raise short-term interest rates Thursday, underscoring persistent doubts about the health of the global economy and financial markets following seven years of easy policy. 

• Republican Presidential Debate — Live Blog.

• Higher Rates a Risk for Emerging-Economy Debt. Funding conditions could tighten just as growth is slowing. Borrowing costs in emerging markets are ticking up, a further blow to economies hit by slowing growth, weak exports and high debt. The rising costs come at a challenging time. Yields will likely rise further if the U.S. Federal Reserve raises interest rates over the next few months, as expected. That means funding conditions at home and in international markets will tighten just as growth is slowing in these economies.

• Doubts Emerge Over Abenomics. Economists increasingly question Japan leader’s growth strategy.

• Tech Firms Venture Into New Territory: Lending. Armed with financial data on small businesses, Intuit, PayPal and Square ramp up loan offerings. 

• GM(GM), Justice Department Near Criminal Settlement Over Defective Ignition Switch. U.S. expected to enter deferred prosecution agreement with auto maker.

• The Joy of Madness. Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders and the mad-as-hell American electorate. Frustration, anger, despair. Allow life’s negatively charged emotions to run free long enough and they all arrive at the same place—madness. We are there.

Fox News:

• Round 2: GOP rivals hammer Trump from outset of debate. Donald Trump and his Republican rivals tangled from the outset of the second GOP presidential primary debate, with Carly Fiorina calling the GOP front-runner an “entertainer” and Sen. Rand Paul calling him “sophomoric.” Asked whether fellow candidates would be comfortable with Trump in charge of America’s nuclear weapons, Fiorina did not answer directly but said: “I think Mr. Trump is a wonderful entertainer.” She said “judgment” and “temperament” will be revealed “over time and under pressure” in the race.

• Commander admits size of US-trained Syrian fighting force at ‘4 or 5’. (video) The top U.S. military commander for the Middle East admitted Wednesday that only "four or five" U.S.-trained fighters remain on the battlefield in Syria, leading to accusations from lawmakers that the program is a "joke" and "total failure." Gen. Lloyd Austin, commander of the U.S. Central Command, addressed the state of the so-called "train and equip" mission in testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee.

MarketWatch.com:

• Five things to listen for during Janet Yellen’s press conference.

CNBC:

• Altice to buy Cablevision(CVC) for $17.7B including debt: Source.

• Gundlach: I like bonds more than a month ago.

• Chart: How well buffered are EMs now?

Zero Hedge: 

• China Injects More Liquidity, Strengthens Yuan As Foreigners Dump Record Amount Of Japanese Stocks. (graph)

• In China 1300 Hedge Funds "Did Not Fight The Central Bank" And Are Now Liquidating.

• Beijing's South China Sea Military Buildup Continues: The Dramatic Visual Evidence.

• Will They Or Won't They? Five Fed Scenarios & The Market Impact. (graph)

• Massive 8.3 Magnitude Quake Shakes Chile, Tsunami Waves Arrive, Copper Jumps. (graph)

• How Underfunded Are US Corporate Pension Plans? (graph)

• The Fed's Pain-Relieving Policies "Have Made The System More Vulnerable To A Crash".

• Refugees Vs Riot Police: A Photo Album From The Frontlines Of Europe's Migrant Crisis. (pic)

• China Liquidated A Record $83 Billion In Treasurys In July. (graph)

• "Trust Me". (cartoon)

• The Hillary Clinton Death Cross. (graph)

• Fed "Up" - Stocks Squeezed To 'Black Monday' Highs, Crude Rips, Bonds Dip. (graph)

Business Insider:

• A massive earthquake just shook Chile — and now Hawaii is on tsunami watch.

• This skyscraper looks like a reason to be worried about Canada.

• Sweden is making a bunch of war pacts amid ominous warnings from Russia.

• GUNDLACH: When the Fed starts hiking rates, 'GET OUT' of this asset class. (graph)

• Bill Gurley explains why he keeps shouting about the tech bubble.

Reuters:

• Oracle(ORCL) revenue forecast disappoints as license sales continue falling. Oracle Corp's sales fell more than expected in the first quarter, hurt by a strong dollar and a continued drop in licensed software sales and the company warned revenue could fall in the current quarter even on a constant currency basis. Oracle's shares fell as much as 2.8 percent in extended trading on Wednesday.

Financial Times:

• Doubts rise over China’s official GDP growth rate. The view that China is growing far slower than official figures show is increasingly going mainstream.

Evening Recommendations 

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 129.0 -1.75 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 80.25 -2.25 basis points.

• S&P 500 futures -.13%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.17%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

• (RAD)/.05

• (ADBE)/.50

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The 2Q Current Account Deficit is estimated at -$111.5B versus -$113.3B in 1Q.

• Housing Starts for August are estimated to fall to 1160K versus 1206K in July.

• Building Permits for August are estimated to rise to 1159K versus 1119K in July.

• Initial Jobless Claims are estimated at 275K versus 275K the prior week.

• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2258K versus 2260K prior.

10:00 am EST

• Philly Fed Business Outlook Index for September is estimated to fall to 5.9 versus 8.3 in August.

2:00 pm EST

• The FOMC is expected to leave the benchmark Fed Funds Rate at 0.00-.25%.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Yellen speaking, Fed EconChina August Property Price report, UK Retail Sales report, Bloomberg Economic Expectations Index for September, EIA weekly natural gas inventory report, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, Stifel Nicolaus Consumer conference, (PGR) August Sales release, Deutsche Bank Tech conference, Morgan Stanley Healthcare conference, (INTU) investor day and the (SNPS) investor day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.