Thursday, December 03, 2015

Stocks Falling Substantially into Final Hour on Terrorism Fears, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Surging Long-Term Rates, Biotech/Transport Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.86 +18.54%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.24 +2.52%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.70 -.09%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 57.87 +1.58%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 76.0 +18.75%
  • Total Put/Call 1.11 +6.73%
  • NYSE Arms .65 -43.09
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 83.77 +2.25%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,292.0 +1.29%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 71.12 +6.95%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 17.36 +.52%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 68.67 +.70%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 342.13 +4.85%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 123.91 -.11%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.0 +1.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 21.75 +1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -34.25 -17.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.76 +.75%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .20% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 137.0 +13.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $40.75/Metric Tonne -.92%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -21.80 -4.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 17.70 -3.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 10.2 -.3 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.64 +5.0 basis points
  • # of Months to 1st Fed Rate Hike(Morgan Stanley) 1.64 -.17
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -464 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -253 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -125 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

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