Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg: 

• Hong Kong Property Market in `Free Fall': Hayman's Bass. Kyle Bass, the hedge-fund manager who’s wagering on a slowdown in China’s economy, said Hong Kong’s property market is in “free fall” and the credit expansion in Southeast Asian emerging markets will unravel. “Hong Kong’s in a worse position than it was in prior to the ’97 crisis today,” Bass said at the SkyBridge Alternatives Conference in Las Vegas on Wednesday. He said credit in Asian emerging markets has grown “recklessly,” citing Malaysia and Thailand. Hong Kong property prices have declined and sales are hovering near a 25-year low as the city grapples with the repercussions of a slowing Chinese economy. Home prices have dropped about 13 percent from a peak in September, according to data compiled by Centaline Property Agency Ltd.
• Investors Fleeing $9 Trillion of Negative Yields Fuel Bond Binge. There’s no shortage of demand in the $100 trillion market for global debt, as investors crowd into corporate and long-term sovereign obligations to steer clear of negative yields. Yield-hungry bidders are snapping up government bonds. Auctions of long-term debt by the U.S., Spain and Portugal all drew strong demand Wednesday, with the Treasury sale seeing unprecedented appetite from one class of investors. Buyers are also clamoring for company bonds, in a week that may be the busiest this year for corporate borrowing in the U.S. and Europe.
• Chinese Stocks Slump to Two-Month Low as Industrial Shares Sink. Chinese stocks fell to their lowest levels in more than two months, led by industrial and consumer companies, as investors awaited the release of economic data. The Shanghai Composite Index lost 1.7 percent. A gauge of industrial shares slid the most among company groups, taking its loss this year to 26 percent. Data on new loans and money supply may be released as early as today, while reports on industrial production and retail sales are also due this week. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index headed for its lowest close since March 2.
• Asian Stocks Head for First Decline in Three Days on Earnings. Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index heading for its first decline in three days, following losses in U.S. shares amid growing pessimism over corporate earnings. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.5 percent to 127.16 as of 9:09 a.m. in Tokyo. Japan’s Topix index fell 0.9 percent, with Toyota Motor Corp. slumping 3.7 percent after forecasting its first annual profit drop in five years due to a stronger yen. With pessimism over the global outlook and concern over central banks’ firepower already keeping investors on tenterhooks, the mixed corporate earnings season has provided another dampener for equity markets, which lost more than $1 trillion in value last week.
• Why the High-Yield Rally May Be a Little Overdone. (video)
• Romney Warns of Possible ‘Bombshell’ in Trump’s Hidden Taxes. “It is disqualifying for a modern-day presidential nominee to refuse to release tax returns to the voters, especially one who has not been subject to public scrutiny in either military or public service,” Mitt Romney writes in post to verified Facebook page.

Wall Street Journal:

• Brussels Attacks Could Have Been Much Worse, Investigators Say. Luck, police work and disarray inside the terror cell lessened the carnage in suicide bombings; one bomb fell off luggage cart, another was abandoned.
• EPA Ready to Issue Methane Limits for New Oil and Gas Wells. Regulations, to be released Thursday, aim to cut emissions for first time.
• Macy’s(MA) Reignites Retail Worries. Department-store chain posts worst quarterly sales since recession; stock plunges 15%.
• In Brazil, Senators Line Up to Unseat President Dilma Rousseff. Impeachment trial would center on budget laws, but concerns on economy and corruption figure large.
• The Hiroshima Speech Obama Won’t Give. How we arrived at the dawn of a new and more dangerous nuclear age. The White House said this week that President Obama will visit Hiroshima during his visit to Japan later this month, setting off speculation about what he would say in the city where America used the atomic bomb to end World War II without an invasion. Here’s the speech we don’t expect Mr. Obama to give—though he’s more than welcome to it.

Fox News:

• Comey rebuffs Clinton claim FBI only conducting ‘security inquiry’ on emails. (video) Hillary Clinton for months has downplayed the FBI investigation into her private email server and practices as a mere “security inquiry.” But when asked Wednesday by Fox News about Clinton's characterization of the bureau's probe, FBI Director James Comey said he doesn’t know what "security inquiry" means -- adding, “We’re conducting an investigation. … That’s what we do.”

MarketWatch:

• Threatening head-and-shoulders pattern may be forming in the S&P 500. (graph)

CNBC:

• This so-called safe trade may now be very dangerous. (video)
• Disney(DIS), Apple(AAPL) may not stop the bleeding: Traders. (video)

Zero Hedge:

• In China, Nobody Wants To Be A Bagholder. 
• 11 Signs That The U.S. Economy Is Rapidly Deteriorating Even As The Stock Market Soars.
• Central Banks And The Rise Of Extremism.
• A Central Banker Officially Loses It: "We Are Magic People".
• Obamacare Rules Change Opens Door For State Bailouts.
• Big Test Looms For Oil Stock Rally.
• Peter Boockvar Warns "If Central Bankers Get Their Way, The Global Bond Market Will Blow Up".
• Bill Ackman Releases Ghastly Portfolio Update; Defends Valeant, Other Money-Losing Investments.
• Stocks Dump, Bonds Jump As Retail Wreckage Trumps Crude Spike. (graph)

Business Insider:

• The art market is a 'catastrophe'.
• Here's why a higher minimum wage is a bad idea.

Financial Times:

• The pain and gain in chasing the junk bond rally. The US junk bond market has snapped back in recent months, handing investors who kept the faith some juicy returns. But disquiet over the extent and strength of the rally is mounting.

Telegraph:

• Official pro-European Union campaign is part-funded by Goldman Sachs, CitiGroup and Morgan Stanley and France’s Airbus and Eurostar, Electoral Commission figures show.
• Italy must choose between the euro and its own economic survival. Italy is running out of economic time.  Seven years into an ageing global expansion, the country is still stuck in debt-deflation and still grappling with a banking crisis that it cannot combat within the paralyzing constraints of monetary union.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to unch. on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 143.75 +.75 basis point. 
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 53.25 unch.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.17 -.04%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.10%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.01%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate 

• (KSS)/.37
• (PRTY)/.03
• (RL)/.83
• (DDS)/2.57
• (JWN)/.45
• (NVDA)/.41
• (SHAK)/.05
• (SYMC)/.22

Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST

• The Import Price Index MoM for April is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.2% gain in March.
• Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 270K versus 274K the prior week. 
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2120K versus 2121K prior.     

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's George speaking, Fed's Rosengren speaking, Fed's Mester speaking, BoE rate decision, BoE inflation report, $15B 30Y T-Bond auction, Bloomberg May US Economic Survey, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, (DOW) annual meeting, (RIG) annual meeting, (NSC) annual meeting, (VLO) annual meeting and the (FLEX) analyst meting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.