Tuesday, May 10, 2016

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Central Bank Hopes, Yen Weakness, Oil Gain, Financial/Commodity Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.80 -5.22%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.88 +.80%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.06 +.36%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 53.30 -1.26%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 69.0 -32.35%
  • Total Put/Call 1.12 -1.75%
  • NYSE Arms .73 -46.98% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 80.49 -4.30%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 999.0 -1.24%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 98.63 -1.49%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 26.21 +.77%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 52.59 -3.43%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 289.22 -2.67%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 127.76 +.14%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 13.5 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 40.0 -4.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.75 +.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 71.92 +.18%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .24% +3.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 103.0 -1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $55.26/Metric Tonne +.49%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -34.60 +2.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -8.7 -3.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 8.60 +.1 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.63% +3.0 basis points
  • 17.3% chance of Fed rate hike at July 27 meeting, 30.5% chance at September 21 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +215 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +5 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +19 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my medical/tech/biotech sector longs 
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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