Tuesday, May 31, 2016

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Fed Rate-Hike Worries, Oil Reveral Lower, Yen Strength, Energy/Defense Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: About Even
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Light
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.87 +13.34%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 128.53 +.65%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.36 -1.33%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.95 +5.23%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 88.0 -3.30%
  • Total Put/Call .95 +5.56%
  • NYSE Arms 1.04 +2.87
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 77.58 +1.35%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 891.0 -.08%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 89.82 +.04%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 24.97 -2.33%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 52.72 +.07%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 303.76 +1.76%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 128.88 +.09%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 15.0 +1.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 37.25 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -29.5 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.48 -.25%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .29% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 96.0 +2.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $51.15/Metric Tonne -.24%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -18.60 +4.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 4.80 -.5 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.5 +2.5 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.58% -4.0 basis points
  • 51.4% chance of Fed rate hike at July 27 meeting, 58.2% chance at September 21 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +179 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -152 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -21 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

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