Monday, July 31, 2017

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Oil Gain, Deregulation Hopes, Economic Optimism, Financial/Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 10.56 +2.62%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.07 +.26%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.53 +.4%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 30.0 +5.86%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 76.0 unch.
  • Total Put/Call .89 +8.54%
  • NYSE Arms .91 -35.77%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.37 -.35%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 436.0 +.61%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 50.33 +.39%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 4.90 +8.53%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 19.04 -4.61%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 190.80 -.15%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 140.55 +.04%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 24.75 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 23.75 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -27.50 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 74.02 +.16%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.07% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 94.0 unch.
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $73.70/Metric Tonne +7.23%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -43.10 +1.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 19.10 +3.0 basis points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 16.30 +.5 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.82 unch.
  • 19.5% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 1 meeting, 48.4% chance at Dec. 13 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +10 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +46 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -25 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/biotech/retail sector longs 
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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