Sunday, August 20, 2017

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
  • China's Debt Swaps Surpass $100 Billion. (video) Almost a year after China rolled out steps to rein in soaring corporate leverage, concerns are rising that undeserving companies are benefiting while households are getting saddled with risks. China unveiled guidelines for debt-to-equity swaps in October, part of measures to trim the world’s biggest corporate debt loads. The idea was that healthy firms would use the program to cut interest-bearing borrowings, while bloated companies would be shunned. But it hasn’t always worked out that way, even as the total value of swaps reached 776 billion yuan ($116 billion) in the second quarter when volumes jumped to a record, according to Natixis SA.
  • Japan Stocks Set to Rise; Yen Falls, Oil Advances. (video) Japan’s Topix index and South Korea’s Kospi index were modestly lower, while Australia’s declined 0.6 percent. U.S. stocks rallied on Friday from session lows -- though they still ended the day lower -- after the White House announced that Steve Bannon would be leaving his job as chief strategist. Investors remain on edge after a terror attack in Barcelona and amid simmering tensions on the Korean peninsula. Oil held onto gains and the yen fell. Japan’s Topix index was down less than 0.1 percent, as was South Korea’s Kospi index. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index dropped, with BlueScope Steel Ltd. tumbling 18 percent after the company reported disappointing earnings. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.2 percent Monday.
  • Brent Oil Steals the Show as Hedge Funds Leave U.S. Crude Aside. Hedge funds decreased their WTI net-long position -- the difference between bets on a price increase and wagers on a drop -- by 2 percent to 274,441 futures and options in the week ended Aug. 15, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission show. Longs slipped 2.2 percent and shorts fell 2.6 percent.
  • Yellen, Draghi Head to Jackson Hole Amid Inflation Unease. As the world’s top central bankers gather in Wyoming this week, their relief about a stronger global economy will be tempered by a growing unease that inflation remains inexplicably low. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will be among the officials addressing this year’s installment of the annual conference hosted by the Kansas City Fed. The summit, held at a Jackson Hole mountain retreat, comes as central banks in advanced economies creep toward the policy exit after years of unprecedented easing, even with outlooks are clouded by stubbornly tepid inflation.
  • Sempra(SRE) Is Said to Be Near Deal to Acquire Oncor Electric. Sempra Energy is nearing a agreement to buy Oncor Electric Delivery Co. for about $9.3 billion, according to people familiar with the matter, potentially putting itself in line to scoop up the Texas utility that’s also being pursued by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. and Paul Singer’s Elliott Management Corp.
  • Stock Dividends Climb to Record High as Global Markets Rally. Income-oriented investors are benefiting as dividend payments joined equity indexes at record highs last quarter, and more gains may be coming. Worldwide stock dividend payments in the second quarter rose 5.4 percent from a year earlier to $447.5 billion, according a report released Monday by Janus Henderson Group Plc. The financial and technology sectors were among those showing strong growth. Dividends are forecast to reach a record $1.21 trillion for all of 2017, up 3.9 percent from a year ago. About half of long-term returns from stocks come from dividends, assuming they’re reinvested and add to compounded growth, according to Alex Crooke, the report’s author and head of global equity income at the London-based fund company.
Wall Street Journal:
MarketWatch.com:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 83.75 +1.5 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 21.5 unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.80 +.02%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.06%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.11%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • None of note
Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST
  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for July.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The UK Public Finance report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

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