Wednesday, August 09, 2017

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Geopolitical Concerns, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Yen Strength, Hospital/Retail Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.28 +12.59%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.63 -.48%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.76 +4.16%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 34.35 +10.27%
  • ISE Sentiment Index n/a
  • Total Put/Call 1.09 +17.2%
  • NYSE Arms .92 -10.9%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.83 +1.72%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 437.0 +1.14%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.62 +3.70%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 5.08 +.40%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 20.70 +7.25%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 188.33 +1.80%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 140.82 +.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 26.50 +1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 26.75 -1.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.25 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.55 -.26%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.04% unch.
  • Yield Curve 91.0 -1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $75.46/Metric Tonne n/a
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -29.70 +1.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 13.20 +2.6 basis points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 14.20 -.2 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.83 unch.
  • 19.5% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 1 meeting, 46.7% chance at Dec. 13 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -18 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -2 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -9 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my retail/biotech sector longs 
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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