Thursday, April 26, 2018

Stocks Surging into Close on Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Optimism, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.51 -7.5%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.79 -.57%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.56 -.7%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 40.7 +5.8%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 109.0 +19.8%
  • Total Put/Call .83 -13.5%
  • NYSE Arms 1.07 +34.24%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.62 -1.83%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 409.0 -1.17%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.99 -2.51%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 115.5 +1.25 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 12.37 -2.79%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 142.45 -.81%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 149.27 +.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 26.0 -1.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 53.25 +2.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.25 -2.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.43 +.01%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.81% -4.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 50.0 -4.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 67.20 USD/Metric Tonne +1.01%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 39.30 -2.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -84.40 +.2 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 9.1 +.4 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.18 unch.
  • 92.0% chance of Fed rate hike at June 13 meeting, 92.5% chance at August 1 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +111  open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +116 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +63 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/retail/medical/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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