Thursday, April 12, 2018

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Diminishing Trade War Fears, Earnings Optimism, Oil Gain, Transport/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.7 -7.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.65 +.09%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.39 -.59%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.1 -3.6%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 101.0 -10.6%
  • Total Put/Call 1.02 +7.4%
  • NYSE Arms .71 -35.46%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.08 -2.0%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 437.0 +.08%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.13 -2.1%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 130.0 -.5 basis point
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 12.55 +.92%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 139.27 -1.33%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 149.11 +.16%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 31.0 +1.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 61.0 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -7.75 -2.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 74.58 -.01%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.74% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 48.0 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 64.28 USD/Metric Tonne +.31%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 28.30 -3.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -89.20 -1.0 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 17.6 -1.5 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.13 +2.0 basis points
  • 87.2% chance of Fed rate hike at June 13 meeting, 87.9% chance at August 1 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +170 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +110 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +7 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/tech/industrial/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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