Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• U.S. ‘Winning’ Trade War After Reviving China Talks, Trump Says. 

• Investors See Trade Truce Giving Risk Assets Short Reprieve.

• Trump's DMZ Summit Shows How Little Kim Has Conceded on Nukes.

• The Fed Typically Kills Expansions. Now It Must Save This Record Upswing.      

• BIS Starts FinTech Hub as Central Banks Look Into Crypto.

• Haven Currencies Drop as Yuan Rallies in Wake of Trump-Xi Truce.

• Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt Stress Readiness to Quit the EU Without a Deal.

• U.S.-China Truce May Give Traders Reason to Ease Rate-Cut Bets.  

• Trump Goes to North Korea: In Pictures.  

• U.S. Stock Futures Rise With Yuan on Trade Truce. U.S. equity-index futures surged with the yuan, while the yen slumped after the American and Chinese presidents reached a truce in the trade war and agreed to resume talks. Futures on the S&P 500 climbed 1% and China’s offshore yuan was up 0.6% against the dollar in early trading Monday. The deal between Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump validated investor hopes after mixed signals heading into Saturday’s meeting. Treasury futures declined. Oil rose as Russia struck a deal with Saudi Arabia to extend the OPEC+ agreement at current production levels for the rest of this year and potentially into early 2020. Futures on the S&P 500 Index climbed 1% as of 7:30 a.m. in Tokyo. The underlying gauge advanced 0.6% on Friday. Futures on the Nikkei 225 were up 1.6%.

• Banks Exposed to Possible Leveraged-Loan Market Tumult, BIS Says.  

• Australia's Iron Ore Exports to Drop for First Time in 18 Years.

Wall Street Journal:

• U.S., North Korea Agree to Restart Nuclear Negotiations.

• The Troubles Beneath the Surface of California’s Comeback.

• Walmart Turns to Virtual Reality to Pick Middle Managers.

• As Stocks Hover Near Records, Growth Worries Linger.

• U.S.-China Trade Talks Are Back on, but Obstacles Remain.  

• Gray Wave Gives Slow-Growing World a Boost.

MarketWatch.com:

• These are the first genetically modified animals approved for U.S. consumption.

• Russia and Saudi Arabia agree to extend OPEC oil output cuts by 6-9 months.

Fox News:

• 2020 Dem puts foot in mouth with ‘gay waiter’ comment at Pride weekend fundraiser.

• EXCLUSIVE: Trump tells Fox News he's optimistic in China trade talks.

• TUCKER CARLSON: President 'towered' over 'wheezing' North Korean dictator at DMZ.

CNBC:

• Trump has not granted Huawei a general amnesty as part of trade war truce, Kudlow says.

• Trump shook hands with Kim Jong Un in the Demilitarized Zone — here are photos and video.

• ‘It’s a temporary timeout’: Trump and Xi agree to talks, but offer no clear path to end trade war.

• Telemedicine apps are thriving because working moms love the convenience of their smartphones.

Zero Hedge:

• BIS Warns "Slowdown Is Worsening And Spreading" As Central Banks Run Out Of Ammo.

• "All-Out Brawl": Trump's Press Secretary Roughed Up During Scuffle With NK Guards.

• Multiple Expansion Accounted For 90% Of The Historic June Rally: This Is Bad News For Q2 Earnings Season.

• "Wealthy" Chicago Households On Hook For $2 Million In Debt Each Under 'Progressive Solution' To Pension Crisis.

• Nothing Was Resolved Between The US And China, Meanwhile Global CapEx Has Ground To A Halt.

• Hedge Fund Closures Exceed Launches For The Third Straight Quarter.

• Trump Makes History As First US President To Enter North Korea; Announces Restart Of Nuclear Talks.

• Ceasefire: US, China Trade Talks "Back On Track" After Trump Folds On Huawei.

• US Military Races To Develop And Deploy Laser Guns Before Next Conflict.

• Recreational Drug Use Surges Worldwide.

• 40 Lessons To Teach Your Kids Before They Leave Home.

• Everyone's Got A "Surveillance Score" And It Can Cost You Big Money.

• Hypocrisy At The Border: Trump Villified For Obama's Immigration Policy.

• Second Highest Number Of S&P 500 Companies Issuing Negative Guidance On Record.

• "The Broke And Beautiful Life": Millennials Now Use High-Interest Loans To Pay For Weddings.  

• Mass Surveillance: The Pentagon Can Now ID You By Your Heartbeat With A Laser.

• Trump's Border Billions Blocked By Obama-Judge Who Donated Tens Of Thousands To Former Prez.

• Is China Running Out Of Retaliatory Ammunition In The Trade War?

• The Great Transformation: Robots Will Displace 20 Million Jobs By 2030.

• Powell Capitulation Sparks S&P's Best Start To A Year In 22 Years.

Telegraph:

• Robots replace pharmacists as online drugs orders will be processed almost entirely by machine.

• Further rate cuts are counter-productive and increasingly dangerous, warns BIS watchdog.

• Mountains of debt, stubborn deflation and sluggish growth: post-Brexit Britain must learn from Japan's downfall.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are +.5% to +1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.0 -.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 42.75 -1.0 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.63 +.01%.

• FTSE 100 futures +.4%.

• S&P 500 futures +.87%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +1.36%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (AZZ)/.67

After the Close:

• None of note

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• ISM Manufacturing for June is estimated to fall to 51.0 versus a reading of 52.1 in May.

• ISM Prices Paid for June is estimated to fall to 52.8 versus 53.2 in May.

• Construction Spending for May is estimated unch. versus unch. in April.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The OPEC meeting, Eurozone PMI report, Eurozone Unemployment Rate report and the China Manufacturing PMI report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.