Friday, June 21, 2019

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Iran Tensions, Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Profit-Taking, Homebuilding/Telecom Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.6 -.47%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.71 +.66%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.18 -1.68%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 37.16 +2.79%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 108.0 -25.5%
  • Total Put/Call .77 -2.5%
  • NYSE Arms .83 +12.2%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.86 +1.33%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 604.0 -3.73%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 67.20 -.56%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 243.5 -3.25 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.85 +.21%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 176.28 +1.98%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 163.75 +.10%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 1.5 -1.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 26.0 +3.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.25 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.27 -.13%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.1% -2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 28.50 +1.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 109.80 USD/Metric Tonne -1.52%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -62.40 -.8 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -1.3 +14.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -31.20 unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.74 -1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate cut at Sept. 18th meeting, 100.0% chance of cut at October 30th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +17 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -43 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -47 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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