Thursday, June 20, 2019

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Hopes, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Oil Gain, Commodity/Technology Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.6 +2.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 125.82 -.19%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.39 +.6%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 35.73 -6.1%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 146.0 +128.1%
  • Total Put/Call .82 -6.8%
  • NYSE Arms .73 -34.2%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.32 -2.53%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 621.0 -1.88%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 67.58 -.18%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 246.75 +2.75 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.04 -7.37%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 171.60 -2.61%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 163.57 -.09%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 2.75 unch.
  • TED Spread 23.0 +.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.75 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.37 +.66%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.12% -5.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 27.0 +.25 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 111.73 USD/Metric Tonne +2.9%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -61.60 -1.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -15.3 +.1 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -31.20 +.3 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.75 +7.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate cut at Sept. 18th meeting, 100.0% chance of cut at October 30th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -32 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +36 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +10 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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