Tuesday, July 02, 2019

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Concerns, Global Growth Worries, Oil Plunge, Energy/Transport Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.5 -4.3%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.54 -.45%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.87 -2.0%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 33.43 -4.02%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 73.0 -20.0%
  • Total Put/Call .81 -7.95%
  • NYSE Arms 1.22 +25.8%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.57 -1.01%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 610.0 +1.36%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.30 -2.96%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 220.5 -11.75 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 61.45 -1.34%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 163.09 +1.53%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 164.25 -.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 4.25 -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 17.25 -7.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -16.0 -.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.59 -.09%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.17% +5.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 21.25 -3.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 117.0 USD/Metric Tonne -2.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -59.30 -.1 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -4.6 +1.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -34.10 +1.4 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.66 -4.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate cut at Sept. 18th meeting, 100.0% chance of cut at October 30th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -100 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -146 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +1 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/medical/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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