Wednesday, July 10, 2019

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines
  • Asian Stock Gains Muted; Dollar Slips on Powell. Asian stocks posted modest gains, following their U.S. counterparts, after comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell cemented market bets for a rate cut this month. Treasuries rose with the yen and the dollar retreated. Shares climbed in South Korea and ticked higher in Japan and Australia. U.S. futures were little changed. Earlier, the S&P 500 briefly topped 3,000 for the first time after Powell signaled a willingness to lower rates, citing a slowing global economy and trade issues. Minutes from the Fed’s June meeting confirmed an inclination among officials to ease policy soon. But stocks came off their highs, with financial shares leading the pullback. S&P 500 futures rose 0.1% as of 9:45 a.m. in Tokyo. The S&P 500 rose 0.5% Wednesday. Topix Index rose 0.2%. Kospi Index rose 0.1%. S&P/ASX 200 was up 0.3%.
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.25 -1.25 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 40.5 -2.0 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  67.64 +.04%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.12%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.15%.
Morning Preview Links 

Earnings of Note 
Before the Open:
  • (DAL)/2.28
  • (FAST)/.37
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST
  • The CPI MoM for June is estimated unch. versus a +.1% gain in May.
  • The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for June is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in May.
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated at 221K versus 221K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1683K versus 1686K prior. 
  • Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY for June.
2:00 pm EST
  • The Monthly Budget Statement for June is estimated at -$7.9B versus -$207.8B in May.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Powell testimony to Congress, Fed's Quarles speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, German CPI report, $16B 30Y T-Note auction, White House Summit on Social Media, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (BKE)/(CATO) sales updates could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

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