Monday, July 15, 2019

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Profit-Taking, Oil Decline, Earnings Jitters, Energy/Financial Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.7 +2.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.16 -.13%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.96 -2.79%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 33.6 +4.0%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 77.0 +5.5%
  • Total Put/Call .98 +10.1%
  • NYSE Arms 1.45 +49.5%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.27 -.22%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 605.0 +.12%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.38 -1.06%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 190.0 -14.25 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.25 -1.0%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 159.65 -1.48%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 165.11 +.07%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 3.25 +1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 19.0 +7.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -16.5 -4.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.79 +.14%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.13% -5.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 26.25 +3.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 118.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.33%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -44.40 +11.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -7.60 +1.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -31.20 +3.4 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.78 +3.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate cut at Sept. 18th meeting, 100.0% chance of cut at October 30th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -90 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -27 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -7 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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