Friday, May 01, 2020

Stocks Substantially Lower into Final Hour on Global Recession Fears, Earnings Worries, Technical Selling, Energy/Transport Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 39.1 +14.4%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 121.59 -.09%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.82 +7.4%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 77.68 -.55%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 57.0 -66.0 points
  • Total Put/Call 1.16 +19.6%
  • NYSE Arms 1.64 +34.4%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 89.80 +3.41%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 1,360.12 -.47%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 105.97 +4.89%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 235.25 unch.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 117.61 +2.53%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 349.60 +4.85%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 163.64 +.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 13.0 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 47.75 -19.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 6.0 -2.0 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  105.0 +2.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.32 -.45%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% unch.
  • Yield Curve 43.0 +.75 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 80.19 USD/Metric Tonne -.30%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -128.0 +16.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -267.0 +1.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 9.0 -1.2 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.05 -3.0 basis points
  • n/a chance of no change at July 29th meeting, n/a chance of no change at Sept. 16th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -90 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -665 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -10 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

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