Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:     

• Cracks in China’s Growth Put Risk-Market Rally on Shaky Ground.  
• With Economies on the Brink, Southeast Asia Chooses to Reopen.
• Here’s What the Next Six Months of the Pandemic Will Bring. One key danger is if a vaccine-resistant variant develops, although it is not the only risk ahead.  
• U.K. Business Warns Tax Hikes Risk Strangling Economic Growth.
• Israel Eyes Fourth Dose; U.K. Drops Vaccine Passes: Virus Update.  
• Stocks Set to Dip on Concern About Slower Recovery: Markets Wrap.
  
• Oil Extends Advance as U.S. Supply Is Slow to Return After Ida.
• Back-to-School Season Has Stock Sellers Tapping Market in Droves.
• The World’s Shippers Are Earning the Most Money Since 2008.
• Fewer Pediatricians, More Cooks Seen in Dismal U.S. Jobs Outlook.
• Kansas City Southern to Accept CP Rail Offer, Rebuffing CN.
• Epic Games Files Notice of Appeal in Case Versus Apple.
• House Democrats Consider 26.5% Corporate Tax Rate.
  

Wall Street Journal:

• Some Chinese Property Bonds Suffer as Evergrande Struggles.
• Stocks Face Possible Autumn Pullback, Analysts Warn.
• Libor Transition Stokes Sales of Risky Corporate Debt.
• Secret to Apple’s iPhone Sales Boom: 5G Deals From Wireless Carriers.
• Shipping Options Dry Up as Businesses Try to Rebuild.
• California Recall Puts Governor’s Pandemic Leadership to the Test.
• Costs From Extended Covid-19 Border Closures Accumulate.
• Short-Lasting Inflation Depends on Long-Lasting Goods.
• Chip Shortage Drives Tech and Car Industries Closer.  
• El Salvador Runs a Bitcoin Scam.  
• Those Still Left Behind in Afghanistan.

Fox News:  

• Liberal justice reveals true feelings on court packing, term limits as some Dems call for resignation.
• GOP governor torches 'pretty ignorant' Biden for vax mandate. 
• America’s top doc puts vaccine exemptions on notice as outrage over Biden’s controversial move grows.

CNBC:

• Sen. Joe Manchin says there’s no way to pass $3.5 trillion budget bill by September 27.
• Markets brace for hot consumer inflation report in the week ahead.
• Top Wall Street analysts remain bullish on these five stocks.
• Kansas City Southern picks Canadian Pacific’s $31 billion bid for railroad.
• A Medicare trust fund faces insolvency in 2026 yet Democrats want to expand coverage.

Zero Hedge: 

• "Extreme Cover-Up" - Scientists Who Penned Lancet Letter To Bat Down Lab Theory Have Links To China.
• "Americans Are Tired Of All The Lies" - General Mike Flynn Warns Nation Being Overtaken By Small, Powerful Group Of Marxists. 
• Navy SEAL Who Shot Bin Laden Says Internal Division Now Biggest Threat To America.
• North Korea Reportedly Test-Fires New Long-Range Cruise Missile.
• California Medical Ethics Prof With Natural Immunity Sues University Over Vaxx Mandate.
• "F**k Joe Biden" Chants Heard Across US College Football Stadiums. 
• Hedge Fund CIO: "We Have Entered The Most Uncertain Period Of Our Lifetimes".
• Al Qaeda Leader Appears In New Video Marking 9/11, Despite Death Rumors.
• Two Years Ago Today: Wuhan Bat Lab Mysteriously Scrubbed Database With 22,000 Specimens.
• Harvard's $42 Billion Endowment Says It Will Stop Investing In Fossil Fuels.
• Morgan Stanley: Countries Will Transition Toward Acceptance Of COVID As An Endemic Problem They Must Live With. 
• DeSantis Responds To Biden's Vaccine Mandate: "In Florida, We Will Fight Back".
• Members Of Congress, Staff Exempt From Biden Vaccine Mandate.
• Boston Suburb Attempts To Limit Gun Stores With New Zoning Proposal.
• In Surprising Reversal, England Drops Vaccine Passport Plan.
• FBI Declassifies 9/11 Memo After Biden Executive Order: "Puts To Bed Any Doubts About Saudi Complicity".
• These Dangers Loom Over The Fragile US Economy In The Next 12 Months.
• "Something's Not Matching Up": Manchin Refuses To Support $3.5 Trillion Spending Plan.
• 5 Divergences In The Stock Market To Keep An Eye On This Fall.
• American Workers No Longer Want To Work Into Their 60s.
• Europe Is Subsidizing Its Way Into Electric Vehicle Leadership.
• Reporters May Face 14 Years In Prison For 'Embarrassing' UK Government Officials.

Reuters:

• U.S.-bound migrants fill Colombia town as COVID-19 border closures lifted. (Aug. 11)
  
• Colombia has administered at least 35,750,492 doses of COVID vaccines so far. (graph) Assuming every person needs 2 doses, that’s enough to have vaccinated about 35.5% of the country’s population.
• COVID-19 infections are decreasing in Colombia, with 1,959 new infections reported on average each day. That’s 6% of the peak — the highest daily average reported on June 27.
• South Africa loosens COVID curbs as third wave eases.
• South Africa has administered at least 14,670,161 doses of COVID vaccines so far. Assuming every person needs 2 doses, that’s enough to have vaccinated about 12.5% of the country’s population.

 Jerusalem Post:

• COVID-19: New 'Mu variant' from Colombia could be vaccine resistant - WHO.

Nature: 

• Why US coronavirus tracking can’t keep up with concerning variants. (April 7) Laboratories supported by the US government have doubled the rate at which they are sequencing SARS-CoV-2 genomes over the past two months. Still, the number of genomes that the country shared in the online genome repository GISAID in March represented only 1.6% of its positive COVID-19 cases that month.

Newsweek:

• Mu COVID Variant, Which Could Be Resistant to Vaccines, Now in Almost Every State.
  

NewsMax:

• Sen. Joe Manchin Won't Vote for $3.5T Bill: 'What's the Urgency?'
• Dershowitz: Courts Will Rule Against Biden on Mandate Penalties.
• Nebraska Gov. Ricketts: Biden Vax Mandates an 'Egregious Outreach'.
  

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• EXCLUSIVE: Large Sections of the Border Wall Have Been REMOVED and Left WIDE OPEN Along Heavily Trafficked Drug Route in Southern Arizona.
• Kentucky Health Care Workers Refused to Comply With Vaccine Mandate, Forced Hospital to Fire Them (VIDEOS).
• WEIRD: Last Night FBI Releases Heavily Redacted Records from Secret Probe “Operation Encore” into 9-11 Hijackers Support Network Inside US.
• Software Company Salesforce Offers to Relocate Texas Employees Over State’s Abortion Law.
• Republicans in SoCal Have Trouble Casting Recall Ballots – Many Told ‘They Already Voted’ – Even Though They Had Not.
• Putin’s Puppet: Russians Are Now Barking Orders at Joe Biden – They Are Against Any US Base in Central Asian Region.
• WATCH: Bill Maher Says the Race-Obsessed Left is ‘Embarrassing’ Him.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.75 -.25 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 32.75 -.75 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.13 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,913.0 +1.0 point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.44 -3.2%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.1%.
• S&P 500 futures +.36%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.32%

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• (ORCL)/.97

Economic Releases

2:00 pm EST

• The Monthly Budget Statement for Aug. is estimated to widen to -$225.0B versus -$200.0B in July.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Australia Home Price report, Barclays Financial Services Conference, Citi Tech Conference, HC Wainwright Investment Conference, JPMorgan Gaming/Lodging/Restaurant/Leisure Forum, Credit Suisse Basic Materials Conference, BofA Media/Communications/Entertainment Conference, (PANW) analyst day and the (ZM) financial analyst briefing could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.