Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Tax Hike Worries, US Dollar Strength, Commodity/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.4 +1.3%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,077.0 -16.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.57 -.19%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.61 +.58%.

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.0 +.8%

• ISE Sentiment Index 101.0  -9.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .86 +3.6%

• NYSE Arms 1.31 +79.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 46.84 -.87%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 396.07 +.42%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 51.90 -.11%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 108.0 unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.16 +1.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 153.41 +.63%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 38.41 +.21%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.25 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 7.75 -.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.5 -.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  73.0 +.5 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.5 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.08 -.52%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 114.0 unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 130.70 USD/Metric Tonne -2.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -61.6 -2.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -10.9 +6.0 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 10.9 -3.6 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 +2.0 basis points
• 98.3% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 98.3% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 289 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +42/100K people
• 62% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) +8.0 percentage points
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -290 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -60 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +21 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/medical sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long