Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Policy-Induced Labor/Supply Shortages, Less Dovish Fed Commentary, Dollar Strength, Retail/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 23.2 +3.0%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,869.0 -28.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.03 -.74%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.9 -.45%.

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 57.6 -.05%

• ISE Sentiment Index 65.0  -37.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.05 +12.9%

• NYSE Arms .92 -14.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.62 +.9%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 377.84 +.48%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.47 +.36%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 106.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.0 -1.9%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 181.52 +.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 36.84 +.14%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 10.0 +1.5 basis points
  

• TED Spread 10.25 unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.25 +1.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  70.75 -1.5 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.75 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.63 +.01%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 122.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 116.85 USD/Metric Tonne -3.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -33.2 +1.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -58.6 +.2 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.7 +3.0 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 unch.
• 99.5% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting, 97.1% chance of no change at Jan. 26th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 242 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) -4/100K people
• 45% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) -1.0 percentage point
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +28 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -37 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -4 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some of them
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long