Stocks Modestly Higher into Afternoon on US Economic Soft-Landing Hopes, Loosening US Financial Conditions, Diminished European Debt Angst, Commodity/Transport Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.7 -1.5%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .52%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 55.4 +4.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 152.2 +.47%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.5 -1.0%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 32.7 +.28% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 115.0 +13.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .87 -16.4%

• NYSE Arms .79 +11.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 76.8 -1.98%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 370.1 -2.2%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 380.0 -45
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 99.8 -4.7% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 396.1 -4.3%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 184.0 basis basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 130.1 -1.8%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 237.9 -1.9%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.89 +.09%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 32.0 basis points -1.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 21.75 basis points -22.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.5 +3.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 165.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 691.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 86.0 -7.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.7 +.2%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.95% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 118.4 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 43.7 euros/megawatt-hour +1.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 29.7 -.6 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 52.0 -.3 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 21.6 -3.9 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 226.10 +.05:  Growth Rate +1.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.2 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.29% unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.03 +4.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.01 +6.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -62.5 basis points (2s/10s) -3.25 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.17% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.60% unch.: CPI YoY +5.22% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 14th FOMC meeting: 68.9%(-1.1 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 26th meeting: 44.6%(-.2 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +191 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +50 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +167 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my industrial/medical/utility sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long