Stocks Rising into Afternoon on US Economic Soft-Landing Hopes, Dollar Weakness, Short-Covering, Tech/Gambling Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.1 -5.0%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .85%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 54.7 +1.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 153.07 +.12%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.2 -1.8%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 32.8 -2.9% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 82.0 -34.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .76 -20.8%

• NYSE Arms .99 -38.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 75.2 -2.3%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 368.0 -2.4%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 356.0 -9
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 96.4 -.96% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 380.9 -1.4%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 185.0 basis basis points unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 125.7 -1.0%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 230.9 -1.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.95 unch.

• 2-Year Swap Spread 31.5 basis points +.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 34.5 basis points +11.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -16.5 -1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 155.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 693.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 96.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.0 +.44%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.94% -3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 116.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.1 euros/megawatt-hour -1.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 28.4 -.8 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 49.60 -1.1 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.7 +8.5 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 225.91 -.15:  Growth Rate +1.6% unch., P/E 18.1 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.27% -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.03 +5.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.11 -7.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -52.75 basis points (2s/10s) +4.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.17% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.58% unch.: CPI YoY +5.12% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 -3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 14th FOMC meeting: 63.3%(-3.8 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 26th meeting: 50.4%(-.5 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +233 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +79 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +151 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long