Stocks Reversing Lower into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Rising Rate-Hike Odds, Regional Bank Contagion Worries, Regional Bank/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.9 +.5%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.01%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 57.4 +4.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 153.5 +.30%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.2 +.09%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 33.0 +2.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 92.0 +4.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .83 -5.7%

• NYSE Arms .82 -10.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 74.2 -1.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 359.9 -1.2%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 367.0 +11
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 94.7 -1.7% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 363.4 -4.5%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 186.0 basis basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 124.5 -.8%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 231.7 +.76%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.95 -.27%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 30.0 basis points -1.5 basis points
  

• TED Spread 24.75 basis points -9.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -16.5 +1.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 162.0 +7.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 694.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 95.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.9 -.23%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.0% +6.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 114.5 USD/Metric Tonne -1.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 41.1 euros/megawatt-hour -2.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 31.0 +1.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 48.40 -1.2 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 27.8 -2.9 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 225.83 -.08:  Growth Rate +1.5% -.1 percentage point, P/E 18.4 +.3
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.26% -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .17 +14.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -3.96 +15.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -57.75 basis points (2s/10s) -5.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.17% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.58% unch.: CPI YoY +5.12% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 +3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 14th FOMC meeting: 63.9%(-.7 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 26th meeting: 47.7%(+17.3 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -100 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -42 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +108 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long