Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
- Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
- Volume: Below Average
- Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 17.9 +.5%
- DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.01%
- Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 57.4 +4.1%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 153.5 +.30%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.2 +.09%
- CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 33.0 +2.7%
- ISE Sentiment Index 92.0 +4.0 points
- Total Put/Call .83 -5.7%
- NYSE Arms .82 -10.9%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 74.2 -1.7%
- US Energy High-Yield OAS 359.9 -1.2%
- Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 367.0 +11
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 94.7 -1.7%
- Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 363.4 -4.5%
- Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 186.0 basis basis points +1.0 basis point
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 124.5 -.8%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 231.7 +.76%
- China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.95 -.27%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 30.0 basis points -1.5 basis points
- TED Spread 24.75 basis points -9.25 basis points
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -16.5 +1.5 basis points
- MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 162.0 +7.0 basis points
- Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 694.0 +1.0 basis point
- Avg. Auto ABS OAS 95.0 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.9 -.23%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.0% +6.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 114.5 USD/Metric Tonne -1.7%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 41.1 euros/megawatt-hour -2.2%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 31.0 +1.6 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 48.40 -1.2 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 27.8 -2.9 points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 225.83 -.08: Growth Rate +1.5% -.1 percentage point, P/E 18.4 +.3
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.26% -1.0 basis point
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .17 +14.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -3.96 +15.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve -57.75 basis points (2s/10s) -5.0 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.17% unch.
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.58% unch.: CPI YoY +5.12% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 +3.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for June 14th FOMC meeting: 63.9%(-.7 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 26th meeting: 47.7%(+17.3 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -100 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -42 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +108 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
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