Wednesday, April 30, 2025

Thursday Watch

Around X:

  • @ElonMusk
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @MarioNawful
  • LINDA YACCARINO: 𝕏 COMMUNITY NOTES IS A MEGAPHONE FOR TRUTH—LEGACY MEDIA IS JUST A WHISPER. "Community Notes is global collective intelligence—fact-checking in real time at scale. We now have 1 million noters across 200 countries. If you interact with a post that gets noted, you're 60% less likely to share it. Authors are 80% more likely to delete it. Legacy media fact-checks with a whisper—X does it with a megaphone." (video)
  • TESLA OPTIMUS EYED FOR $5 TRILLION ROBOT TAKEOVER. Morgan Stanley sees a $5 trillion humanoid robot market by 2050—and Tesla’s Optimus is in prime position. With up to 1 billion robots projected by mid-century, analysts say companies controlling the brains and branding will win big. Elon expects to build 10,000 to 12,000 Optimus units this year, calling it “a legion of robots.” Even 5,000, he says, is “the size of a Roman legion. Tesla isn’t just building machines—it’s building history. 
  • LINDA YACCARINO: 𝕏 IS NOW THE WORLD’S MOST POWERFUL CULTURE SIGNAL—EVERY VOICE IS WELCOME. "In my old gig at NBCUniversal, I saw the power of Twitter. Now, 𝕏 is the world’s most powerful culture signal—the global town square where ideas collide, truth rises, and every voice is welcome. Biden dropped out on 𝕏, Brady retired on 𝕏, Beyoncé announced her tour on X. If it’s happening, it’s happening on 𝕏." (video)
  • GOOGLE’S TRAINING ELECTRICIANS SO AI DOESN’T MELT THE POWER GRID. AI is eating so much electricity that Google’s now throwing $10 million at training 100,000 new electricians — because robots need juice, and the grid is already crying. Turns out, when your data centers slurp power like it’s Mountain Dew, you need more than just tech bros in hoodies — you need actual humans who know what wires do. Google’s also trying nuclear, geothermal, and a bunch of nerdy policy hacks to stop the lights from going out mid-prompt. Reminder: your favorite AI doesn’t run on magic — it runs on outlets.
  • TESLA STACKS HUNDREDS OF CYBERCAB CASTINGS—ROBOTAXI TAKEOVER IN SIGHT. Tesla looks ready to shift its Robotaxi fleet from Model Y to Cybercab, with drone footage showing hundreds of castings piled up at Giga Texas. Though the Austin pilot will start with Model Ys, the Cybercab—Tesla’s two-seater autonomous vehicle—is clearly being prepped for scale. Tesla’s VP of Engineering confirmed builds are underway, sealing, crash-testing, and prepping full integration. While not in the June rollout, Cybercab is looming. 
  • APPLE BREAKS COURT ORDER—NOW IT’S GETTING REFERRED TO THE FEDS. Apple tried to play lawyer with a federal judge—and lost. A U.S. court ruled the tech giant violated an order to loosen its grip on the App Store, and now Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers is kicking the case to federal prosecutors for criminal contempt. She didn’t mince words: “This is an injunction, not a negotiation.” Apple’s workaround? Slap on a new 27% fee and scare users off non-Apple payments. The judge called it out. Epic sued. Apple stonewalled. Now the feds may knock. 
  • @TheTranscript
  • $MSFT CFO: "We delivered a strong quarter with Microsoft Cloud revenue of $42.4 billion, up 20% (up 22% in constant currency) year-over-year driven by continued demand for our differentiated offerings". (graph)
  • $MSFT Microsoft Q3 FY25 revenue growth by product line [Constant Currency YoY] —Microsoft Cloud: +22% —Azure & other cloud services: +35% —Server products & cloud services: +24% —Microsoft 365 Commercial: +15% —Microsoft 365 Consumer: +12% —Dynamics 365: +18% —LinkedIn: +8% —Xbox content & services: +9% —Search & news ads (ex-TAC): +23% —Windows OEM & Devices: +3%. (table)
  • $META CFO hikes their capex guidance for FY 25: "We anticipate our full year 2025 capital expenditures, including principal payments on finance leases, will be in the range of $64-72 billion, increased from our prior outlook of $60-65 billion". (graph)
  • Meta CEO: "We continue to make good progress on AI, glasses, and the future of social media. I'm excited to see these efforts scale further in 2025." (table)
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 97.0 +2.25 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 61.5 +2.5 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 96.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.73%
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.80 -.01%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 -.04%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 57.6 -1.0%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.19% +2.0 basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.4 -2.5%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a. 
  • S&P 500 futures +1.0%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +1.5%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Technical Selling, Energy/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 25.2 +4.4%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing 1.58 +31.2%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 56.6 -4.9% 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.83 +.03%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 182.1 +.10%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.6 unch.
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 35.6 +5.8% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 101.0 -22.0
  • Total Put/Call .83 -4.6%
  • NYSE Arms 1.24 -15.1%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$143.6M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 68.1 +1.7%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 491.9 +5.5%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 279.0 +4.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 73.2 +2.9%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 165.2 +3.3%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 113.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 97.1 +2.8%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 198.4 +1.9%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 105.9 +3.4%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.6 -.34%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -24.0 basis points unch.
  • 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -6.0 basis point +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.5 +.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 160.0 +2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 642.0 +3.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 77.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.97 -.07% 
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.18% +1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.29% +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 96.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.83%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.3 euros/megawatt-hour +1.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -8.6 -2.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -15.7 +3.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 18.8 +5.3 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(254 of 500 reporting) +13.6% -1.5 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.57 -.10:  Growth Rate +12.1% -.1 percentage point, P/E 20.0 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.40% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 10 reporting) +43.2% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 421.62 +.23: Growth Rate +21.9% unch., P/E 29.0 -.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.19 +5.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.02 +4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 10.8 +.1
  • US Yield Curve 55.75 basis points (2s/10s) +4.25 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast -2.4% +30.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 47.5% +1.7 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.61% +7.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.34% -1.0 basis point
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.13 -8.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24 +1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 63.7% (+3.9 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 59.4%(+6.6 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +105 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -28 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +230 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my utility/tech/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value -1.2%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service -3.1% 2) Alt Energy -3.1% 3) Energy -2.6%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • BXP, LOGI, TWO, EQNR, EME, COLD, NSP, OSK, TECK, LECO, SMLR, FIBK, SOFI, ENVA, SBUX, HIMS, NXT, FOUR, NCLH, EIX, FSLR, HI, TENB, GRMN, ETSY, CSGP, AVT, SMG, ATRC, SON, WERN, LINE, SMCI, CWH, BLCO, SHEN and WGS
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) REGN 2) WGS 3) WAY 4) MTCH 5) IP
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) WGS 2) SMCI 3) SNAP 4) ZYXI 5) ETSY
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XOP 2) IYF 3) XBI 4) IYJ 5) XLB

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value -.8%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Biotech +.9% 2) Video Gaming +.9% 3) Foods +.7%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • RGC, ODD, CEP, WING, CLW, SIMO, QRVO, STX, KC, TT, FSS, COCO, VMC, BBIO, WDC, GIL, CECO, EXLS, NMIH, XPO, QURE, CHEF, MDLZ, DAN, SNN, OI, DFIN, SPOT, GTES, KNSA, GEHC, KALV, PPG, REGN, MLM and BULL
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) CWH 2) WB 3) WGS 4) PRMW 5) CSGP
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) WING 2) COCO 3) TT 4) STX 5) FSS
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLF 2) XLE 3) SOXX 4) XLV 5) SIL
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (AGCO)/.04
  • (APD)/2.83
  • (APTV)/1.53
  • (BAX)/.48
  • (BDX)/3.28
  • (BIIB)/2.92
  • (CCJ)/-.13
  • (CAH)/2.17
  • (CARR)/.58
  • (CHD)/.90
  • (CNH)/.09
  • (CVS)/1.70
  • (D)/.75
  • (LLY)/3.26
  • (ESAB)/1.20
  • (EL)/.31
  • (GWW)/9.48
  • (HOG)/.78
  • (HSY)/1.94
  • (HWM)/.78
  • (HUBB)/3.72
  • (H)/.33
  • (IDXX)/2.85
  • (ICE)/1.70
  • (IDCC)/2.99
  • (IRM)/1.16
  • (ITT)/1.44
  • (K)/1.01
  • (MA)/3.58
  • (MCD)/2.66
  • (MRNA)/-3.12
  • (PH)/6.72
  • (PWR)/1.67
  • (RBLX)/-.40
  • (SHAK)/.16
  • (SO)/1.20
After the Close: 
  • (ABNB)/.23
  • (AMZN)/1.37
  • (AMGN)/4.27
  • (AAPL)/1.62
  • (TEAM)/.90
  • (BZH)/.27
  • (XYZ)/.97
  • (CUZ)/.70
  • (LOCO)/.19
  • (GDDY)/1.38
  • (IR)/.73
  • (CART)/.38
  • (JNPR)/.39
  • (LYV)/-.38
  • (MHK)/1.41
  • (RRR)/.47
  • (RDDT)/.02
  • (SYK)/2.71
  • (TWLO)/.96
  • (X)/-.49
  • (OLED)/1.09
  • (ED)/2.24
  • (EOG)/2.80
  • (EXC)/.88
  • (MNST)/.46
  • (MYGN)/-.05
  • (NRG)/1.75
Economic Releases

7:30 am EST

  • Challenger Job Cuts YoY for April.

8:30 am EST

  • Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to rise to 224K versus 222K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1865K versus 1841K prior.

10:00 am EST

  • ISM Manufacturing for April is estimated to fall to 48.0 versus 49.0 in March.
  • ISM Prices Paid for April is estimated to rise to 73.0 versus 69.4 in March.
  • Construction Spending MoM for March is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.7% gain in Feb.

Afternoon

  • Wards Total Vehicle Sales for April is estimated to fall to 17.15M versus 17.77M in March.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 update, Dallas Fed PCE for March, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (RTX) annual meeting, (OXY) annual meeting, (DUK) annual meeting, (ISRG) annual meeting, (WWW) annual meeting, (PZZA) annual meeting, (GLW) annual meeting, (BSX) annual meeting and the (KMB) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +3.5% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 16.5 -18.9
  • 10 Sectors Declining, 1 Sector Rising
  • 18.9% of Issues Advancing, 79.7% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.06 -27.4%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$201.7M
  • 13 New 52-Week Highs, 23 New Lows
  • 28.4% (-9.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 52.3 -2.4
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 57.9 -2.7%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 226.5 -1.1%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,043.0 -.5%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 32.0 (FEAR) -4.0
  • 1-Day Vix 21.4 -3.3%
  • Vix 26.0 +7.6%
  • Total Put/Call .78 -10.3%

Tuesday, April 29, 2025

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

  • @ElonMusk
  • Last week, Treasury went live with its first automated payment verification system. In total, $334 million in improper payment requests were identified and rejected due to: -Missing budget codes -Invalid budget codes (i.e. the payment was not linked to the budget) -Budget codes with no authorization (i.e. the budget had already been fully spent). This is a big deal.
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @MarioNawful
  • THE INVISIBLE PUPPET MASTERS: AI'S DISTURBING NEW ROLE IN SHAPING MINDS. The revelation that University of Zurich researchers secretly deployed AI bots to manipulate Reddit users' opinions should chill anyone who values authentic human discourse. These weren't merely passive observers—they were digital persuaders that analyzed users' personal histories, fabricated identities, and crafted arguments specifically designed to change minds. Most troubling? 
  • TRUMP: PUTIN SAW WHAT HAPPENED WITH AFGHANISTAN AND WENT FOR UKRAINE. "I think if it weren't for me, he'd want the whole country. When I left, there was no chance this would happen. Biden got involved, and the war started. Putin saw Afghanistan—how incompetently others handled it. One of the greatest embarrassments in U.S. history." (video) 
  • TRUMP ON DOGE: WE FOUND A LOT OF FRAUD AND ENDED IT... SAVED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS. “We also found tremendous waste, fraud and abuse. As you know, we found a lot of fraud. There was a lot of fraud, fraudulent things were taking place, and we ended that, and those people are gonna be suffering because of it.” (video)
  • TRUMP: WE HAVE THOUSANDS OF MURDERERS WHO CAME IN ILLEGALLY. “I can't have a trial — a major trial — for every person that came in illegally. We have thousands of murderers that came in. They're gonna murder people. They already have murdered people in our country.” (video)
  • TRUMP: 11,888 MURDERERS CAME IN — SOME KILLED MORE THAN ONCE. “They were allowing people to come in from prisons, as you know, and you've heard me say it, but you've heard a lot of people say it. Prisons, mental institutions, gang members, murderers. We had many murderers—11,888. They think some murdered more than one person.” (video)
  • TRUMP: IN JUST THREE MONTHS, I’VE ALREADY STARTED FIXING BIDEN’S UNSUSTAINABLE TRADE DISASTER. "I've been here for three months. I've taken a trade deficit down to a number that's starting to get really good. What Biden did to this country—with open borders and every country ripping us off on trade—was not sustainable." (video)
  • TRUMP: WE WERE LOSING $5B A DAY ON TRADE—TARIFFS FIXED IT WITHOUT INFLATION. "This is what I campaigned on. We were losing $3 to $5 billion a day on trade—$1.5 to $2 trillion a year. I could’ve left it that way, but it would’ve led to an implosion. We had the best economy, no inflation, and took hundreds of billions from China in tariffs. We had to fix it." 
  • TRUMP: NO CUTS TO MEDICARE, SOCIAL SECURITY, OR MEDICAID — WE’RE INVESTING MORE. “We will always protect Medicare and Social Security for our great seniors with no cuts, and we will defend Medicaid for those great people who are in need. House Republicans are working to invest more money in Medicaid than we spend today.” 
  • TRUMP: NVIDIA, TSMC, AMAZON ARE POURING HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS INTO THE U.S. "My friend Jensen from Nvidia — they're spending, you know what Nvidia is? They're spending $500 billion. TSMC, the biggest chipmaker in the world by far from Taiwan — they're spending $200 billion in the United States. Amazon, $21 billion. Johnson & Johnson, $55 billion. The Mac, $20 billion. Merck, General Motors are putting in billions and billions of dollars, and many other companies.” (video)
  • @mercoglianos
  • @catturd
  • New Canadian PM Mark Carney: "We have an enormous opportunity to bring climate change into the heart of every financial decision." "We can deliver the net zero world that you've demanded, and that our future generations deserve." An entire country about to be destroyed over a hoax. (video)
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @Liz_Churchill10
  • @VigilantFox
  • @goddeketal
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 94.75 +1.0 basis point. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 59.0 -1.25 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 98.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.06%
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.83 +.02%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 -.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 59.8 +.4%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.16% -1.0 basis point.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.6 +.8%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.06%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.39%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.59%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on US Global Trade Deal Hopes, Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Pharma/Transport Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 23.9 -4.9%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .83 -46.4%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 60.8 +2.2% 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.82 -.75%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 181.8 -.12%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.6 -.2%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 33.5 -3.0% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 127.0 +2.0
  • Total Put/Call .91 +7.1%
  • NYSE Arms 1.36 +58.1%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$206.9M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.0 -.4%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 466.2 +2.8%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 275.0 +18.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 71.1 +.9%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 160.0 -3.0%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 111.0 basis points unch.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 94.6 +.8%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 195.2 -.2%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 102.4 +1.4%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.7 -.16%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -24.0 basis points -.75 basis point
  • 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -6.5 basis point -3.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.75 +.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 158.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 639.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 77.0 -3.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.99 +.06% 
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.17% -3.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.28% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 98.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.06%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.9 euros/megawatt-hour -1.7%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -6.2 -7.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -19.3 -7.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 13.5 +.2 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(216 of 500 reporting) +15.1% -2.4 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.67 -.09:  Growth Rate +12.2% unch., P/E 20.1 +.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.40% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 10 reporting) +43.2% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 421.39 +.44: Growth Rate +21.9% +.2 percentage point, P/E 29.2 +.3
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.24 -3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .98 +1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 10.7 +.1
  • US Yield Curve 51.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -2.7% -20.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 45.8% +2.5 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.54% unch.: CPI YoY +2.35% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.21 -5.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.23 -3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 57.2% (unch.) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 49.3%(+3.0 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +370 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -21 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +210 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my utility/tech/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges 
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long