Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, US Election-Related Short-Covering, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.0 -.9%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 68.9 -1.1% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .34 -2.0 basis points
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .15 unch.
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 73.9 +.6% 
• Emerging Market CDS Index 167.7 -.8% 
• Israel Sovereign CDS 59.6 +1.7% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .5 +.1
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 84.9 +1.7

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 63.7 +12.3

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 5.8 -.5

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 40.9 +2.1
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(342 of 500 reporting) +29.0% -.3 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 414.91 +.61:  Growth Rate +26.6% +.2 percentage point, P/E 18.3 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.35% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +34.9% -6.3 percentage points
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 1,101.14 +.24: Growth Rate +64.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 15.9 -.2
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .64 -10.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 33.5 basis points (2s/10s) +2.5 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 171.5 -2.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 93.5 euros/megawatt-hour -1.5%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 12.7% +.1 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +3.7% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.95% +4.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 -1.0 basis point

• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 27th FOMC meeting: 64.5% (+3.5 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for March 17th meeting: 45.9%(+3.4 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +110 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -50 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +11 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +38 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/biotech sector longs and emerging market shorts 
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long