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Monday, April 10, 2006
Sunday, April 09, 2006
Monday Watch
Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The US economy has plenty of room to add jobs without stretching the workforce and fueling inflation, St. Louis Fed Bank President Poole said.
- The US may use “bunker-buster” tactical nuclear bombs to put an end to Iran’s nuclear weapons program, citing the New Yorker magazine.
- British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw said he is “certain” that neither the US nor Britain would preemptively attack Iran.
- The US dollar rose for a third straight week against the yen and gained versus the euro as a strengthening US job market added to speculation the Fed will raise rates twice more this year.
- President Bush said Democratic Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid is responsible for the collapse of an immigration overhaul compromise this week, and asked him to “end his blocking tactics” and allow the bill to move forward.
- Comcast Corp.(CMCSA), Time Warner(TWX) and two other US cable-tv providers will begin selling mobile-phone services in the second half, heating up competition with phone companies including Verizon Communications(VZ).
- China’s yuan may fall 2.3% by the year-end because economic growth will slow, said chief economist Jim Walker at CLSA Ltd., the Asian investment banking arm of France’s biggest lender by assets, Credit Agricole SA.
Wall Street Journal:
- Dunkin’ Brands Inc., which franchises Dunkin’ Donuts outlets, is attempting to attract customers from Starbucks Corp.(SBUX) without alienating lower-income, working-class clients.
Investment Dealers' Digest:
- Ethanol companies are lining up for IPOs.
Financial Times:
- Venture capital trusts raised a record $1.27 billion from investors in the financial year ended April 5.
- A larger than forecast increase in Internet advertising and the forthcoming World Cup finals in Germany have helped boost global spending on advertising.
- International Business Machines(IBM) will reveal technology that improves security for handheld devices including mobile phones, citing the head of security and privacy at IBM Research.
Canadian Broadcasting Corp.:
- It’s impossible for Canada to meet anti-pollution targets set by the Kyoto accord and the nation must set more realistic goals to cut the emission of greenhouse gases, citing Environment Minister Rona Ambrose.
El Mundo:
- Novartis AG Chairman Daniel Vaseslla said the company invests in research centers in the US and Asia because Europe lacks business drive.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Had positive comments on (JBX), (HET) and (GS).
- Had negative comments on (DRI).
Night Trading
Asian indices are -.50% to unch. on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.05%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.07%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (AA)/.51
- (GY)/-.15
- (JBHT)/.31
- (MU)/.06
- (SCHN)/.71
- (SGR)/.37
Upcoming Splits
- (ATW) 2-for-1
- (SLB) 2-for-1
- (CTRP) 2-for-1
- (MTW) 2-for-1
Economic Releases
- None of note
Bloomberg:
- The US economy has plenty of room to add jobs without stretching the workforce and fueling inflation, St. Louis Fed Bank President Poole said.
- The US may use “bunker-buster” tactical nuclear bombs to put an end to Iran’s nuclear weapons program, citing the New Yorker magazine.
- British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw said he is “certain” that neither the US nor Britain would preemptively attack Iran.
- The US dollar rose for a third straight week against the yen and gained versus the euro as a strengthening US job market added to speculation the Fed will raise rates twice more this year.
- President Bush said Democratic Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid is responsible for the collapse of an immigration overhaul compromise this week, and asked him to “end his blocking tactics” and allow the bill to move forward.
- Comcast Corp.(CMCSA), Time Warner(TWX) and two other US cable-tv providers will begin selling mobile-phone services in the second half, heating up competition with phone companies including Verizon Communications(VZ).
- China’s yuan may fall 2.3% by the year-end because economic growth will slow, said chief economist Jim Walker at CLSA Ltd., the Asian investment banking arm of France’s biggest lender by assets, Credit Agricole SA.
Wall Street Journal:
- Dunkin’ Brands Inc., which franchises Dunkin’ Donuts outlets, is attempting to attract customers from Starbucks Corp.(SBUX) without alienating lower-income, working-class clients.
Investment Dealers' Digest:
- Ethanol companies are lining up for IPOs.
Financial Times:
- Venture capital trusts raised a record $1.27 billion from investors in the financial year ended April 5.
- A larger than forecast increase in Internet advertising and the forthcoming World Cup finals in Germany have helped boost global spending on advertising.
- International Business Machines(IBM) will reveal technology that improves security for handheld devices including mobile phones, citing the head of security and privacy at IBM Research.
Canadian Broadcasting Corp.:
- It’s impossible for Canada to meet anti-pollution targets set by the Kyoto accord and the nation must set more realistic goals to cut the emission of greenhouse gases, citing Environment Minister Rona Ambrose.
El Mundo:
- Novartis AG Chairman Daniel Vaseslla said the company invests in research centers in the US and Asia because Europe lacks business drive.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Had positive comments on (JBX), (HET) and (GS).
- Had negative comments on (DRI).
Night Trading
Asian indices are -.50% to unch. on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.05%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.07%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (AA)/.51
- (GY)/-.15
- (JBHT)/.31
- (MU)/.06
- (SCHN)/.71
- (SGR)/.37
Upcoming Splits
- (ATW) 2-for-1
- (SLB) 2-for-1
- (CTRP) 2-for-1
- (MTW) 2-for-1
Economic Releases
- None of note
BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. My trading indicators are giving mostly bullish signals. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.
Thursday, April 06, 2006
***Alert***
I will be unable to post through the weekend due to a scheduling conflict. Sorry for the inconvenience. I will post the Monday Watch late Sunday evening.
Stocks Mostly Lower Heading into Final Hour as Oil and Rates Rise
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is substantially higher into the final hour on gains in my Semi longs, Internet longs, Networking longs and Computer longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is slightly negative as the advance/decline line is modestly lower, sector performance is mixed and volume is above average. Over the last couple of days, volume soared on Ciena (CIEN) as the stock corrected. I expect a lot of the weak hands were shaken out. I am still long Ciena and expect it to trade substantially higher by year-end. The pullback makes for a good long entry point, in my opinion. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, stabilizing long-term rates and optimism in the tech sector.
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
- InfoSpace Inc.(INSP) CEO Jim Voelker said he expects growth in ring tone sales as more mobile-phone users buy new handsets and become interested in a broader range of music.
- Microsoft Corp.(MSFT) said it would add 15 games by summer to the 25 currently available for its Xbox 360 in Japan as it exploits the delayed debut of Sony’s(SNE) PlayStation 3 console.
- Cisco Systems(CSCO) CEO Chambers is taking aim at Internet-based television services.
- Oracle Corp.(ORCL) is starting to see the payoff from $18 billion in acquisitions because offering a wider variety of software is helping the company win customers, President Charles Phillips said.
- Retailers posted the worst sales gains of the year in March as cold weather, higher gas prices and a late Easter limited spending.
- Former NYC Mayor Rudolph Giuliani testified at Zacarias Moussaoui’s sentencing trial that he remembers every day the sight of two people jumping hand-in-hand form the World Trade Center after the Sept. 11 attacks.
- US Treasuries are falling on concern the Fed will keep raising interest rates amid robust employment growth and an increase in commodity prices.
Wall Street Journal:
- Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez probably isn’t headed towards outright nationalization of the oil industry.
- US regulators are close to the final stages of a crackdown on brokerages that allegedly collect improper payments to promote favored mutual funds.
- Shares of Celgene Corp.(CELG) have risen 200% in two years and may have trouble rising much higher.
- US office vacancy rates have fallen to the lowest in five years as improved demand boosts rents.
- Federated Dept. Stores(FD) will probably say today its Macy’s division will start an exclusive line of Martha Stewart-branded(MSO) home furnishings.
- Apple Computer(AAPL) personal computers that use software to enable them to run Microsoft’s(MSFT) Windows operating system function well and operate much faster, Walter Mossberg said.
USA Today:
- The number of teens in the US using drugs declined, with the Midwest and South showing the biggest decreases, citing a national survey on drug and alcohol use that’s to be released today.
NY Post:
- NYC’s pension funds sued Take-Two Interactive Software(TTWO) after the funds lost $3.2 million amid backlash against hidden pornographic images in the company’s “Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas” video game.
NY Times:
- Sales from Canadian online pharmacies to US consumers, considered by some a cheaper option than buying drugs within the country, have declined in the past year due in part to a new Medicare insurance plan.
- A US voucher program that promotes school choice by allowing children to opt for charter and private schools is winning the support of minority parents.
- The number of NYC residents collecting welfare benefits fell to 402,281 last month, the lowest number in more than 40 years, and down about 67% from the 1995 peak.
- US Senators Tom Harkin and Lisa Murkowski are among those in Congress who are expected to introduce legislation to ban the sale of fatty and sugary foods in schools.
CNBC:
- Citigroup(C) CEO Prince may consider buying Washington Mutual(WM) as part of his plan to add retail-banking operations in the western US.
- Motorola(MOT) is “close” to releasing its new Q handset, CEO Zander said.
San Jose Mercury News:
- California state senators will debate a proposal that would require schools to teach students about the contributions that lesbians and gays have made to society throughout history.
Business Week:
- Apple Computer(AAPL) incorporated a firm called Braeburn Capital in Nevada to handle investments.
Handelsblatt:
- ThyssenKrupp AG may build a new steel plant in the US to expand in North America after it failed to take over Canadian steelmaker Dofasco Inc.
- InfoSpace Inc.(INSP) CEO Jim Voelker said he expects growth in ring tone sales as more mobile-phone users buy new handsets and become interested in a broader range of music.
- Microsoft Corp.(MSFT) said it would add 15 games by summer to the 25 currently available for its Xbox 360 in Japan as it exploits the delayed debut of Sony’s(SNE) PlayStation 3 console.
- Cisco Systems(CSCO) CEO Chambers is taking aim at Internet-based television services.
- Oracle Corp.(ORCL) is starting to see the payoff from $18 billion in acquisitions because offering a wider variety of software is helping the company win customers, President Charles Phillips said.
- Retailers posted the worst sales gains of the year in March as cold weather, higher gas prices and a late Easter limited spending.
- Former NYC Mayor Rudolph Giuliani testified at Zacarias Moussaoui’s sentencing trial that he remembers every day the sight of two people jumping hand-in-hand form the World Trade Center after the Sept. 11 attacks.
- US Treasuries are falling on concern the Fed will keep raising interest rates amid robust employment growth and an increase in commodity prices.
Wall Street Journal:
- Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez probably isn’t headed towards outright nationalization of the oil industry.
- US regulators are close to the final stages of a crackdown on brokerages that allegedly collect improper payments to promote favored mutual funds.
- Shares of Celgene Corp.(CELG) have risen 200% in two years and may have trouble rising much higher.
- US office vacancy rates have fallen to the lowest in five years as improved demand boosts rents.
- Federated Dept. Stores(FD) will probably say today its Macy’s division will start an exclusive line of Martha Stewart-branded(MSO) home furnishings.
- Apple Computer(AAPL) personal computers that use software to enable them to run Microsoft’s(MSFT) Windows operating system function well and operate much faster, Walter Mossberg said.
USA Today:
- The number of teens in the US using drugs declined, with the Midwest and South showing the biggest decreases, citing a national survey on drug and alcohol use that’s to be released today.
NY Post:
- NYC’s pension funds sued Take-Two Interactive Software(TTWO) after the funds lost $3.2 million amid backlash against hidden pornographic images in the company’s “Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas” video game.
NY Times:
- Sales from Canadian online pharmacies to US consumers, considered by some a cheaper option than buying drugs within the country, have declined in the past year due in part to a new Medicare insurance plan.
- A US voucher program that promotes school choice by allowing children to opt for charter and private schools is winning the support of minority parents.
- The number of NYC residents collecting welfare benefits fell to 402,281 last month, the lowest number in more than 40 years, and down about 67% from the 1995 peak.
- US Senators Tom Harkin and Lisa Murkowski are among those in Congress who are expected to introduce legislation to ban the sale of fatty and sugary foods in schools.
CNBC:
- Citigroup(C) CEO Prince may consider buying Washington Mutual(WM) as part of his plan to add retail-banking operations in the western US.
- Motorola(MOT) is “close” to releasing its new Q handset, CEO Zander said.
San Jose Mercury News:
- California state senators will debate a proposal that would require schools to teach students about the contributions that lesbians and gays have made to society throughout history.
Business Week:
- Apple Computer(AAPL) incorporated a firm called Braeburn Capital in Nevada to handle investments.
Handelsblatt:
- ThyssenKrupp AG may build a new steel plant in the US to expand in North America after it failed to take over Canadian steelmaker Dofasco Inc.
Job Data Top Estimates
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week fell to 299K versus estimates of 305K and 304K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims fell to 2440K versus estimates of 2483K and 2462K prior.
- Continuing Claims fell to 2440K versus estimates of 2483K and 2462K prior.
BOTTOM LINE: First-time applications for unemployment insurance in the US unexpectedly dropped and the total number of people on benefit rolls fell to a five-year low, Bloomberg reported. The four-week moving average of claims dropped to 308,500 from 311,250 the prior week. The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits, which tracks the US unemployment rate, remained at 1.9%. I continue to believe the job market will remain healthy over the intermediate-term without generating substantially unit labor cost increases. Tomorrow’s job report will likely exceed estimates.
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