Stocks Finish Near Session Highs, Led Again by Cyclicals

Indices
S&P 500 1,313.21 +.61%
DJIA 11,416.45 +.64%
NASDAQ 2,309.84 +.22%
Russell 2000 767.61 +.85%
Wilshire 5000 13,278.38 +.57%
S&P Barra Growth 609.15 +.40%
S&P Barra Value 702.06 +.82%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 610.76 +.23%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 862.61 +1.09%
Morgan Stanley Technology 543.31 +.27%
Transports 4,728.80 +1.26%
Utilities 403.44 +2.39%
Put/Call .86 -3.37%
NYSE Arms .77 -24.86%
Volatility(VIX) 12.02 -4.15%
ISE Sentiment 153.00 -14.53%
US Dollar 85.82 -.17%
CRB 357.02 +.52%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 74.60 -.01%
Unleaded Gasoline 217.64 +.06%
Natural Gas 6.77 +.42%
Heating Oil 207.70 -.09%
Gold 671.00 +.54%
Base Metals 218.77 +1.39%
Copper 326.00 -.50%
10-year US Treasury Yield 5.11% -.53%

Leading Sectors
Oil Service +3.41%
Steel +3.19%
Utilities +2.39%

Lagging Sectors
Banks -1.12%
Biotech -1.34%
Homebuilders -1.49%

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Afternoon Recommendations
Banc of America:
- Rated (PETC) Sell, target $18.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- EMI Group Plc is making another bid for Warner Music Group, CNBC reported.
- UnitedHealth Group(UNH) shareholders re-elected all four directors up for renewal at the company’s annual meeting, ignoring criticism from some large stock owners.
- Overseas Shipholding Group(OSG), the largest US-based oil tanker owner, said first-quarter profit plunged 22% as a glut of ships drove down rates.
- President Bush telephoned Sudanese President Umar Hasan al-Bashir to urge him to commit to reaching a peace accord with rebel groups in Darfur, as Deputy Secretary of State Zoellick met with all sides in Nigeria in a bid to keep the talks alive.
- A jurisdictional tug-of-war could delay a vote in the US House of Representatives on legislation making it easier for telephone companies such as AT&T(T) to sell television service, a Key House member said.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished about even today as losses in my Energy-related shorts offset gains in my Networking longs. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market was mildly positive today as the advance/decline line finished slightly higher, sector performance was mostly positive and volume was above average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly lower into the close. Overall, today's market performance was mildly bullish. The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (CYC) has risen 27.3% in a little less than 7 months. The Consumer Index (CMR) has risen 7.5% during this period. The current spread between the two has never been this wide going back to at least 1997, according to Bloomberg. I expect this spread to begin to shrink over the coming weeks.

Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour, Led Again by Cyclicals

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is about even into the final hour as gains in my Networking longs are offsetting losses in my Energy-related shorts. I covered some of my (IWM) and (QQQQ) shorts and added to my (GOOG) and (CIEN) longs today, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market is slightly positive as the advance/decline line is modestly higher, sector performance is mostly positive and volume is above average. The Johnson Redbook same-store sales index rose a very strong 5.1% year over year last week vs. a 4.6% rise the prior week. This is the strongest reading since June 2004. The long-term average is a gain of around 2.5%. I still expect retail sales to decelerate back to around average levels over the coming months. I expect US stocks to trade mixed into the close from current levels as higher energy prices offset lower long-term rates.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Iberdrola SA, the largest owner of wind-power plants, bought a US developer and will study building projects in China.
- The United Nations Security Council is preparing a “stiff message” for Iran on its nuclear program, a senior US diplomat said today, as Iran announced that its scientists have raised their uranium enrichment to 4.8%.
- General Motors(GM) and Ford Motor(F) said US sales fell in April and their biggest Japanese rivals gained as rising gasoline prices pushed buyers toward models with increased fuel economy.
- Ford reported a 15% plunge in truck sales and a 8% increase in car sales during April as sales of hybrid vehicle reached all-time highs.

Wall Street Journal:
- Intel Corp.(INTC) said it will invest $1 billion over five years to help offer more access to technology and education in developing countries.
- Smith Barney, Citigroup’s(C) brokerage subsidiary, plans to reorganize its supervision of foreign investors’ accounts, upsetting brokers at the firm.
- US regulators are looking at the propriety of some so-called life settlements, or arrangements where companies buy the right to death benefits from a stranger’s insurance policy.
- US auto dealers and automakers are boosting sales incentives including free gas as high interest rates and fuel prices curb sales.
- US researchers are finding that marijuana may be more addictive than is generally perceived, citing a compilation of studies published by Cambridge University Press.
- A US SEC official said that there are no legal hurdles to separating the fees mutual fund managers pay brokerage companies for research on investments.
- Salaried lawyers at big US law firms are working fewer hours or dropping plans to make partner, as more and more associates are leaving firms altogether to focus on their families.

Pending Home Sales Fall

- Pending Home Sales for March fell 1.2% versus estimates of a .5% decline and a .8% fall in February.

BOTTOM LINE: Contracts to purchase previously owned US homes decreased in March to a two-year low as buyers were deterred by rising mortgage rates and selling prices that remain higher than a year ago, Bloomberg said. Last week, the average 30-year mortgage rate rose to 6.58%, almost a four-year high. Pending re-sales fell 7.4% in the Midwest and 1.2% in the South. Pending re-sales rose 5.2% in the Northeast and .7% in the West. I continue to believe housing is in the process of slowing to more healthy sustainable levels, which will likely sending consumer spending back to average levels.

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Tuesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The US Treasury is less likely to label China a currency manipulator in a report on exchange-rates that it may publish this week after the G-7 last month called for faster yuan gains, Bank of America said.

Financial Times:
- Apple Computer(AAPL) has renewed contracts with Vivendi SA’s Universal Music Group, Warner Music Group, EMI Group and Sony BMG Music Entertainment to offer songs through its iTunes digital store for 99 cents each.
- Walt Disney(DIS) has agreed to distribute movies and consumer products in Vietnam as part of its global expansion drive.
- PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, the world’s biggest accounting firm, wants a plan to harmonize US and international accounting standards to be abandoned.
- Acer Inc., the world’s fourth-biggest personal-computer maker, plans to sell flat-screen televisions worldwide within nine months as global PC growth slows.

Ming Pao Daily:
- Yanzhou Coal Mining Co.(YZC), China’s largest coal producer, plans to almost triple its annual production by 2010.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
- None of note

Night Trading
Asian Indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.09%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.25%.

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Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (ASF)/.34
- (ADM)/.46
- (BWNG)/-.24
- (CMX)/.50
- (CBG)/.36
- (CEPH)/.62
- (CKP)/.15
- (CNA)/.86
- (DWA)/.00
- (DUK)/.49
- (EDS)/.08
- (EMR)/1.00
- (ETR)/.87
- (EOP)/.23
- (FPL)/.48
- (IT)/.03
- (GET)/.07
- (GNSS)/.05
- (HLT)/.18
- (IACI)/.27
- (IRM)/.21
- (LTR)/2.18
- (MLM)/.56
- (MAS)/.46
- (PPC)/-.32
- (KWK)/.35
- (SAFC)/1.37
- (SIRI)/-.35
- (JOE)/.28
- (STA)/1.29
- (TBL)/.45
- (TXU)/1.08
- (VZ)/.59
- (VNO)/.87

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- Pending Home Sales for March are estimated to fall .5% versus a .8% drop in February.

Afternoon
- Total Vehicle Sales for April are estimated to remain at 16.6M versus 16.6M in March.
- Domestic Vehicle Sales for April are estimated to rise to 13.3M versus 13.1M in March.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by automaking stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open mixed and to trade modestly lower into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.