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Tuesday, May 16, 2006
Monday, May 15, 2006
Tuesday Watch
Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- President Bush said he will send 6,000 National Guard troops to the US-Mexican border and endorsed creating a temporary worker program to ease the strain caused by the flood of illegal immigration.
- Global commodity markets are a bubble waiting to pop, prompted by false assumptions that China’s growth and energy inefficiencies will go unchanged, Morgan Stanley Chief Economist Stephen Roach said.
- Global metals prices plunged, led by gold’s biggest decline since 1993, on concern a speculative rally that sent commodities to record highs may be over.
- Emerging-market stocks posted their biggest drop in two years on speculation rising US interest rates will reduce demand for the riskiest assets, such as equities in South Korea and Russia.
- US Treasury notes rose, snapping a five-day slump, as yields at about a four-year high and falling commodity prices eased concern about inflation.
- Crude oil is falling for a third day in NY on concern that near-record fuel and commodity prices may slow economic growth and curb global demand.
China Securities Journal:
- China may need to raise lending rates in the second half of the year if growth in money supply, loans and investment does not slow, citing an economist with the nation’s top economic planning body.
Financial Times:
- Moody’s Investors Services said it did not upgrade the debt rating of Arabian Gulf banks on concern some properties are overvalued and loans are secured by volatile share holdings. The increase in consumer borrowing also led Moody’s to maintain “a cautious approach.”
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Piper Jaffray:
- Rated (ENDP) Outperform, target $35.
SunTrust:
- Rated (PRGS) Buy, target $37.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -1.25% to -.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.05%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.03%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (ANF)/.54
- (AEOS)/.41
- (AMAT)/.23
- (BJ)/.19
- (CPWR)/.13
- (DE)/2.30
- (DKS)/.17
- (HPQ)/.49
- (HD)/.67
- (NTES)/.24
- (REDF)/.05
- (SKS)/.09
- (SPLS)/.23
- (TJX)/.33
- (WMT)/.61
Upcoming Splits
- (ACI) 2-for-1
- (HTLD) 4-for-3
- (BLUD) 3-for-2
- (JEF) 2-for-1
- (TIE) 2-for-1
- (CELL) 6-for-5
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The Producer Price Index for April is estimated to rise .8% versus a .5% increase in March.
- The PPI Ex Food & Energy for April is estimated to rise .2% versus a .1% gain in March.
- Housing Starts for April are estimated to fall to 1950K versus 1950K in March.
- Building Permits for April are estimated to fall to 2040K versus 2094K in March.
Bloomberg:
- President Bush said he will send 6,000 National Guard troops to the US-Mexican border and endorsed creating a temporary worker program to ease the strain caused by the flood of illegal immigration.
- Global commodity markets are a bubble waiting to pop, prompted by false assumptions that China’s growth and energy inefficiencies will go unchanged, Morgan Stanley Chief Economist Stephen Roach said.
- Global metals prices plunged, led by gold’s biggest decline since 1993, on concern a speculative rally that sent commodities to record highs may be over.
- Emerging-market stocks posted their biggest drop in two years on speculation rising US interest rates will reduce demand for the riskiest assets, such as equities in South Korea and Russia.
- US Treasury notes rose, snapping a five-day slump, as yields at about a four-year high and falling commodity prices eased concern about inflation.
- Crude oil is falling for a third day in NY on concern that near-record fuel and commodity prices may slow economic growth and curb global demand.
China Securities Journal:
- China may need to raise lending rates in the second half of the year if growth in money supply, loans and investment does not slow, citing an economist with the nation’s top economic planning body.
Financial Times:
- Moody’s Investors Services said it did not upgrade the debt rating of Arabian Gulf banks on concern some properties are overvalued and loans are secured by volatile share holdings. The increase in consumer borrowing also led Moody’s to maintain “a cautious approach.”
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Piper Jaffray:
- Rated (ENDP) Outperform, target $35.
SunTrust:
- Rated (PRGS) Buy, target $37.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -1.25% to -.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.05%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.03%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (ANF)/.54
- (AEOS)/.41
- (AMAT)/.23
- (BJ)/.19
- (CPWR)/.13
- (DE)/2.30
- (DKS)/.17
- (HPQ)/.49
- (HD)/.67
- (NTES)/.24
- (REDF)/.05
- (SKS)/.09
- (SPLS)/.23
- (TJX)/.33
- (WMT)/.61
Upcoming Splits
- (ACI) 2-for-1
- (HTLD) 4-for-3
- (BLUD) 3-for-2
- (JEF) 2-for-1
- (TIE) 2-for-1
- (CELL) 6-for-5
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The Producer Price Index for April is estimated to rise .8% versus a .5% increase in March.
- The PPI Ex Food & Energy for April is estimated to rise .2% versus a .1% gain in March.
- Housing Starts for April are estimated to fall to 1950K versus 1950K in March.
- Building Permits for April are estimated to fall to 2040K versus 2094K in March.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by commodity stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open mixed and to trade modestly higher into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
Evening Review
Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Medical longs, Retail longs, Energy shorts and Base Metal shorts. I covered some of my trading shorts in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market was negative today as the advance/decline line finished lower, sector performance was mixed and volume was above average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly lower into the close. Overall, today’s market action was mildly bearish. I expect many stocks, with the exception of commodities, made at least a short-term bottom today. I will closely monitor the bond market's reaction to tomorrow's PPI report before further shifting market exposure.
Sunday, May 14, 2006
Weekly Scoreboard*
Indices
S&P 500 1,291.24 -2.60%
DJIA 11,380.99 -1.70%
NASDAQ 2,243.78 -4.22%
Russell 2000 742.40 -5.04%
Wilshire 5000 13,046.75 -2.82%
S&P Equity Long/Short Index 1,197.27 +1.16%
S&P Barra Growth 596.64 -2.67%
S&P Barra Value 692.95 -2.53%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 607.24 -1.55%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 863.71 -2.47%
Morgan Stanley Technology 518.77 -5.85%
Transports 4,840.54 -2.37%
Utilities 400.07 -2.67%
S&P 500 Cum A/D Line 7,718.0 -10.0%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 50.0 +42.85%
Put/Call 1.29 +63.29%
NYSE Arms 1.30 +73.33%
Volatility(VIX) 14.19 +22.11%
ISE Sentiment 142.00 -4.70%
AAII % Bulls 54.90 +19.63%
AAII % Bears 27.45 -18.21%
US Dollar 83.91 -1.44%
CRB 361.75 +2.79%
ECRI Weekly Leading Index 138.30 -.07%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 71.93 +2.97%
Unleaded Gasoline 217.55 +8.37%
Natural Gas 6.31 -5.69%
Heating Oil 204.65 +4.55%
Gold 716.00 +5.32%
Base Metals 250.91 +8.77%
Copper 386.40 +10.4%
10-year US Treasury Yield 5.19 +1.76%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 6.58% -.15%
Leading Sectors
HMOs +2.22%
Broadcasting +.81%
Gaming -1.05%
Gold & Silver -1.53%
Hospitals -1.80%
Lagging Sectors
Alternative Energy -5.32%
Steel -5.55%
I-Banks -5.60%
Networking -6.65%
Semis -7.05%
One-Week High-Volume Gainers
One-Week High-Volume Losers
*5-Day % Change
S&P 500 1,291.24 -2.60%
DJIA 11,380.99 -1.70%
NASDAQ 2,243.78 -4.22%
Russell 2000 742.40 -5.04%
Wilshire 5000 13,046.75 -2.82%
S&P Equity Long/Short Index 1,197.27 +1.16%
S&P Barra Growth 596.64 -2.67%
S&P Barra Value 692.95 -2.53%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 607.24 -1.55%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 863.71 -2.47%
Morgan Stanley Technology 518.77 -5.85%
Transports 4,840.54 -2.37%
Utilities 400.07 -2.67%
S&P 500 Cum A/D Line 7,718.0 -10.0%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 50.0 +42.85%
Put/Call 1.29 +63.29%
NYSE Arms 1.30 +73.33%
Volatility(VIX) 14.19 +22.11%
ISE Sentiment 142.00 -4.70%
AAII % Bulls 54.90 +19.63%
AAII % Bears 27.45 -18.21%
US Dollar 83.91 -1.44%
CRB 361.75 +2.79%
ECRI Weekly Leading Index 138.30 -.07%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 71.93 +2.97%
Unleaded Gasoline 217.55 +8.37%
Natural Gas 6.31 -5.69%
Heating Oil 204.65 +4.55%
Gold 716.00 +5.32%
Base Metals 250.91 +8.77%
Copper 386.40 +10.4%
10-year US Treasury Yield 5.19 +1.76%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 6.58% -.15%
Leading Sectors
HMOs +2.22%
Broadcasting +.81%
Gaming -1.05%
Gold & Silver -1.53%
Hospitals -1.80%
Lagging Sectors
Alternative Energy -5.32%
Steel -5.55%
I-Banks -5.60%
Networking -6.65%
Semis -7.05%
One-Week High-Volume Gainers
One-Week High-Volume Losers
*5-Day % Change
Friday, May 12, 2006
***Alert***
Due to a scheduling conflict posting will be light through Tuesday of next week. Sorry for the inconvenience.
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