Thursday, March 29, 2007

GDP Revised Higher, Measure of Inflation Revised Lower, Jobless Claims Fall Again

- Final 4Q GDP rose 2.5% versus estimates of a 2.2% gain and a prior estimate of 2.2%.
- Final 4Q Personal Consumption rose 4.2% versus estimates of a 4.2% gain and a prior estimate of a 4.2% increase.
- Final 4Q GDP Price Index rose 1.7% versus estimates of a 1.7% gain and a prior estimate of a 1.7% increase.
- Final 4Q Core PCE rose 1.8% versus estimates of a 1.9% gain and a prior estimate of a 1.9% increase.
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week fell to 308K versus estimates of 320K and 318K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims rose to 2527K versus estimates of 2518K and 2495K prior.
BOTTOM LINE: The US economy grew at an annual rate of 2.5% in the fourth quarter, faster than previously thought, Bloomberg reported. As well, a measure of inflation closely watched by the Fed rose less than forecasts. For all of last year, the US economy rose 3.3% versus 3.2% in 2005 and the long-term average of 3.1%. Growth will likely come in around 2% this quarter before bouncing back to more average rates through year-end.

The number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week to the lowest since January, suggesting the labor market remains very healthy, Bloomberg reported. The four-week average of jobless claims fell to 316,750 from 324,000 the prior week. The unemployment rate among those eligible to collect benefits, which tracks the US unemployment rate, remained steady at 1.9%. I continue to believe the labor market will remain healthy over the intermediate-term without generating significant unit labor cost increases.

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Wednesday, March 28, 2007

Thursday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Exxon Mobil(XOM) and four other US gas retailers must face a lawsuit accusing them of conspiring to drive up the price of gasoline, a federal judge ruled. Exxon(XOM), Marathon Oil(MRO), Citgo Petroleum and US affiliates of Royal Dutch Shell and BP Plc(BP) are accused in the complaint of intentionally limiting the available gasoline supply, driving up prices and boosting profits.
- DoubleClick’s(DCLK) owners put the Internet advertising company up for sale and may seek about $2 billion.
- Democratic Senator Chuck Schumer plans to introduce subprime home loan legislation in the next few weeks that would establish a national system for regulating mortgage brokers.
- A New Jersey state senator wants to crate a program to help homeowners refinance mortgages they can’t afford, mirroring a similar plan in Ohio.
- US Treasury Secretary Paulson said the subprime market turmoil is “largely contained.”
- UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said he will ask Iran to free 15 UK sailors and Marines detained March 23 for allegedly entering Iranian territorial waters.
- The yen fell after a government report showed Japan’s retail sales unexpectedly fell for a fourth month in February.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
CIBC:
- Rated (MCK) and (CAH) Sector Outperform.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.52%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.57%.

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Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (AGE)/1.06
- (KMX)/.21
- (CKR)/.18
- (CLE)/.83
- (DSW)/.30
- (FDO)/.60
- (FINL)/.51
- (MOV)/.37
- (RHT)/.14
- (SLR)/.05
- (SCS)/.17
- (SRR)/.32
- (TXI)/.57
- (TIBX)/.07
- (UTIW)/.26
- (WOR)/.06

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Final 4Q GDP is estimated to rise 2.2% versus prior estimates of a 2.2% gain.
- Final 4Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise 4.2% versus prior estimates of a 4.2% increase.
- The 4Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise 1.7% versus prior estimates of a 1.7% increase.
- The Final 4Q Core PCE is estimated to rise 1.9% versus prior estimates of a 1.9% gain.
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 320K versus 316K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 2518K versus 2501K prior.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and automaker shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Lower on Iran Concerns, Housing

Indices
S&P 500 1,417.23 -.80%
DJIA 12,300.36 -.78%
NASDAQ 2,417.10 -.83%
Russell 2000 797.40 -.62%
Wilshire 5000 14,314.84 -.73%
Russell 1000 Growth 557.49 -.76%
Russell 1000 Value 820.44 -.75%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 698.67 -.51%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 949.40 -.93%
Morgan Stanley Technology 556.88 -1.03%
Transports 4,793.65 -1.21%
Utilities 501.46 -.03%
MSCI Emerging Markets 114.55 -.93%

Sentiment/Internals
Total Put/Call 1.33 +40.0%
NYSE Arms 1.56 +30.4%
Volatility(VIX) 14.98 +11.1%
ISE Sentiment 104.0 -18.75%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 63.97 +1.65%
Reformulated Gasoline 206.30 -.48%
Natural Gas 7.55 +.73%
Heating Oil 182.0 +1.88%
Gold 672.70 +.60%
Base Metals 244.88 -.75%
Copper 306.60 +.28%

Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.62% +1 basis point
US Dollar 83.09 +.10%
CRB Index 314.37 +.81%

Leading Sectors
Tobacco +.24%
Computer Services -.10%
Medical Supplies -.16%

Lagging Sectors
Steel -1.50%
Computer Hardware -1.66%
Homebuilders -2.24%

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Afternoon Recommendations
Oppenheimer:
- Rated (HLS) Sell, target $18.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Time Warner Cable(TWX) will add to last year’s purchase of cable systems from Adelphia Communications Corp. with more takeovers if they “make sense,” Chief Financial Officer John Martin said.
- The United Auto Workers union rejected wage concessions proposed by Delphi Corp. and a group of private equity firms, jeopardizing a $3.4 billion investment aimed at pulling the auto-parts maker out of bankruptcy.
- Corn futures in Chicago fell to the lowest in more than two months on speculation that livestock producers are using less of the biggest US crop as feed.
- Gasoline futures fell after the government showed a small-than-expected decline in US inventories.
- PetroChina Co. made a discovery in an offshore oil field in eastern Bohai Bay that may be the largest in East Asia in 33 years. The field may hold as much as 2.2 billion barrels of oil. The field may produce 200,800 barrels of oil per day within 3 years, enough to meet 95% of the needs of PetroChina’s largest refinery in Dalian. That would put the field on par with Chevron’s(CVX) $3.5 billion Tahiti field in the Gulf of Mexico, which is scheduled to begin production next year.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished lower today on losses in my Technology longs. I added (IWM) and (QQQQ) hedges in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market was negative today as the advance/decline line finished lower, almost every sector fell and volume was above average. Measures of investor anxiety were elevated into the close. Today's overall market action was bearish as the major averages and breadth finished near session lows. Homebuilders and financials bore the brunt of the selling. On the positive side, the average stock outperformed the broad market again and losses in many market-leading stocks were muted. My intraday gauge of investor angst finished at an elevated level. I wouldn't be surprised to see some more weakness on the open tomorrow as Asian equities will likely come under pressure tonight. The Nikkei is indicated down about 100 points on the open.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Iran Concerns, Weakness in Homebuilders

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower into the final hour on losses in my Technology longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, almost every sector is lower and volume is about average. Merrill Lynch put out its monthly short interest report today. It said that its composite Average Short Interest Ratio (ASIR) model for the S&P 1500 soared to a record 7.2 during mid-February through mid-March vs. 5.7 the prior month. This is an all-time record high level. The ASIR S&P 1500 model is now above two standard deviations from its historical average. Merrill said that short levels are clearly higher in the small- to mid-cap space with a concentration in the consumer discretionary, utility and financial sectors. This may be why the average stock is holding up better than the major averages. As I said the other day, there is a huge wall of worry for stocks to climb substantially from current levels by year-end. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close on short-covering and bargain-hunting.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Late payments on subprime mortgages that are used in credit indexes rose more slowly in February, according to research reports from firms such as Barclays Capital and Bear Stearns(BSC). The reports suggested the deterioration may be over for the performance of home loans backing bonds in two of three so-called ABX indexes.
- US Treasuries pared gains and declined after Fed Chairman Bernanke told Congress’ Joint Economic Committee that the economy “appears likely to continue to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters.” Bernanke said the effects of subprime mortgages on the housing market will be moderate.
- Crude oil rose to a six-month high as investment funds speculate tensions with Iran will escalate.
- Prime Minister Tony Blair stepped up a diplomatic push on Iran to release 15 UK sailors and Marines held six days ago, asking for help from allies and saying Britain’s boats were 1.7 miles insides Iraqi waters when the raid occurred.
- AMR Corp.’s(AMR) American Airlines, the world’s largest carrier, will buy 47 Boeing Co.(BA) 737 jets four years earlier than planned to begin replacing some of its oldest planes.
- President Bush attacked the Senate’s $122 billion Iraq war-spending bill, which calls for a troop withdrawal, and said he will hold Democrats responsible if they delay funding military operations. “The clock is ticking for our troops in the field,” Bush said. Money for US military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan begins running out in mid-April.

Wall Street Journal:
- The SEC will from now on exercise more influence over the Financial Accounting Standards Board, a private body that sets accounting rules for public and private companies.
- Best Buy’s(BBY) chief information officer, Robert Willet, said most of the retailer’s merchandise will be tagged with radio-frequency identification chips, or RFID, to permit remote monitoring of inventory.
- Microsoft Corp.(MSFT) is in talks to acquire DoubleClick Inc.(DCLK), the Internet advertising firm owned by private-equity firm Hellman & Friedman LLC.

NY Times:
- Burger King Holdings(BKC) will buy some pork from suppliers who raise uncrated hogs and chickens in order to stay ahead of consumer trends and push farmers into humane practices.
- Wal-Mart Stores(WMT) might never open a store in NYC, CEO Lee Scott Jr. said. At a meeting with the newspaper’s editorial board, Scott said the high cost of conducting business in NYC and the opposition the discount chain has faced makes it less likely Manhattan will have a Wal-Mart.
- A game in which teenagers suffocate themselves to the point of unconsciousness to achieve a high, which has killed several children, is drawing scrutiny by healthy officials, educators and parents. While asphyxiation games aren’t new, the so-called choking game, is getting more attention after several well-publicized deaths in the US, couples with a realization that teenagers are seeing the game on Internet sites like YouTube, and playing it in more threatening variations.

TheDeal.com:
- Initial bids for NBTY(NTI), a nutritional supplement company with a $3.3 billion market value, are due in early April.

National Post:
- US investors in Canadian income trusts may pay twice as much tax on the dividends they receive under a proposed tax change. A bill filed in the US House of Representatives by Democratic Congressman Richard E. Neal would remove a special tax treatment for dividends from foreign investments such as Canadian income and real estate trusts.

USA Today:
- The Transportation Security Administration plans to more closely screen airport workers in a so-called “surge” strategy to increase safety at airports across the country.

AP:
- The Sacramento Country, California, Sheriff’s Dept. will hold an auction April 17 for the rights to OJ Simpson’s book, in which the former star football player tells how he would have murdered his ex-wife Nicole Brown Simpson and her friend Ron Goldman.

CNBC:
- Former Home Depot CEO Nardelli has been offered a position with hedge fund manager Cerberus Capital Management.

Financial Times:
- Economic statistics that show a booming Asian economy may demonstrate that investing in the region is a slightly risky bet that the world economy will stay healthy. Domestic consumption in the region is unexceptional, and the economies are very dependent on foreign demand.