Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Fannie Mae(FNM) and Freddie Mac bond prices rose and the cost to protect $1.45 trillion of their senior debt from default fell the most in almost four months as investors bet the US government will stand behind creditors of the two biggest mortgage-finance companies.
- U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson signaled that a government takeover of Fannie Mae(FNM) and Freddie Mac(FRE) won't be necessary, saying they should continue as shareholder-owned companies with federal charters.

Wall Street Journal:
- The June stock-market rout has battered two high-profile hedge funds. Prentice Capital Management LP, the New York firm started in May 2005 with about $400 million in start-up money from the huge hedge-fund firm SAC Capital Advisors LLC, has plunged 46% this year. Almost half of that drop happened during June as the value of the firm's stock and debt investments in retailers plummeted, according to investors.

NY Times:
- High Cost of Driving Ignites Online Classes Boom.

Washington Post:
- Hedge fund managers backing Obama for President.

AFP:
- Iran’s nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili will hold talks with European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana aimed at ending the country’s nuclear standoff with the west in Geneva on July 19.

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

Small-cap Growth (-.94%)

Sector Outperformers:

Oil Tankers (+4.0%), Coal (+1.50%) and Steel (+.23%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

GDP, BUD, SA, GOLD, UDRL, CHK, TAP, TSU, OZRK, VRSN, WYNN, CENX, MNTA, XNPT, BABY, GEOI, OSIR, CRZO, RGLD, CRDN, SPWR, MMSI, PAAS, NDAQ, CEDC, NNDS, HPC, DYS and MDS

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) JNJ 2) WMI 3) FRE 4) GFI 5) BMY

Links of Interest

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Friday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Short interest on the NYSE surged 2.67% over the last two weeks of June to another new record of 18,125,000,000 shares. Short interest of the Nasdaq rose .29% over the last two weeks of June to another new record of 10,450,000,000 shares.
- New NYSE short-selling targets. Here are the 25 NYSE stocks with the largest percentage increase in short interest relative to their floats over the last two weeks of June:
- New Nasdaq short-selling targets. Here are the 25 Nasdaq stocks with the largest percentage increase in short interest relative to their floats over the last two weeks of June:
- The risk of intervention in the foreign exchange markets by central banks in the US, Europe and Japan has increased to 30%, according to a probability model developed by Morgan Stanley. “The model yields 78% accuracy,” said Sophia Drossos, a currency strategist in NY at Morgan Stanley.
- Yarn makers grew more pessimistic in the second quarter as the global pace of investment in mills that spin cotton slowed and rising costs squeezed profit, Cotlook Ltd. said. Of the 65 mills surveyed in China, the largest consumer of cotton, over two-thirds had idled capacity in the second quarter.
- Crude oil traded near $142 a barrel after rising more than $5 in the last hour of New York floor trading yesterday as prices breached a level that triggered computer-generated buying programs.
- Corn declined for a fifth day on favorable crop weather in the U.S. Midwest and speculation that higher grain prices will reduce demand to feed livestock and produce biofuel. Soybeans also fell, reversing an early gain.
- Apple Inc.'s(AAPL) new iPhone went on sale today with crowds lining up outside stores in Tokyo and Auckland, New Zealand, as Chief Executive Officer Steve Jobs takes aim at Research In Motion Ltd.'s(RIMM) BlackBerry.
- The risk to own Asian government bonds is the highest since at least 2003, when the region was rocked by slumping stock markets and the SARS epidemic, as record oil prices spur inflation and slow economic growth. The cost of protecting sovereign debt against default jumped this week to the highest since April 2003 for both Malaysian and South Korean investment-grade bonds, according to credit-default swap prices compiled by Bloomberg. The cost for Thai debt is at the highest level since October 2002 and Vietnam reached a record last week, the data show.
- Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.(LEH), the securities firm that's lost 75 percent of its market value this year, whittled down its hardest-to-value assets by 2.7 percent in the second quarter.
- Fannie Mae(FNM) and Freddie Mac(FRE), the largest buyers of U.S. home loans, are too big for the government to let them fail, leading Republican and Democratic lawmakers said.
- Presumptive Republican presidential nominee John McCain raised $22 million last month and entered July with $26.7 million in the bank, campaign manager Rick Davis said today. It was the biggest fundraising month of his campaign.
- Manhattan apartment rents fell in the first half, led by declines of as much as 16 percent for three- bedroom units in new buildings with doormen, as Wall Street job cuts and rising fuel and food prices deterred renters from moving.
- Intel Corp.(INTC) Chief Executive Officer Paul Otellini said the chipmaker isn't suffering from a slowing U.S. economy and demand overseas remains steady. ``Seventy-five percent of our sales are not in the U.S. and global business seems very strong still,'' Otellini said in an interview at Allen & Co.'s media conference in Sun Valley, Idaho. ``There may be some patterns in the U.S. that may be concerning to some people, but we haven't seen them at this point.''
- Wynn Resorts Ltd.(WYNN), founded by billionaire Stephen Wynn, surged 15 percent in late U.S. trading after the casino company said second-quarter profit rose more than some analysts estimated and it would buy back as much as $500 million more in stock.
- Deckers Outdoor Corp.(DECK): The maker of Ugg boots and Teva sandals said it agreed to open retail stores for its Ugg brand in China through a venture with Stella International Holdings.

Wall Street Journal:
- Microsoft Corp.(MSFT), the world’s largest software maker, will cut the price of a model of its Xbox 360 games console to spur sales. The cost of the Xbox 360 Pro will drop to $299 from $349 starting as early as this weekend.

MarketWatch.com:
- Grid spending money up for grabs. As utilities boost electrical supply to feed population growth as well as today's crop of power-hungry air conditioners and flat screen TVs and computer monitors, the sector is expected to boost grid infrastructure spending by $17 billion from 2007-2010, according to the Edison Institute.
- Power firms grasp new tech for aging grid.

NY Times:
- US Considers Takeover of Two Mortgage Giants.
- For Short Sellers, It Doesn’t Get Much Better. As shareholders of Fannie Mae(FNM) and Freddie Mac(FRE) watched their investments plunge in value Thursday, short sellers, who bet against stocks, could count their winnings. In a climate where members of Congress rail against short sellers, and chief executives like James Dimon of JPMorgan Chase say that those who start and pass on rumors should go to jail, it is not surprising that hedge fund executives are choosing to remain silent.

CNNMoney.com:
- Warren Buffett gets busy. For the second time in the past few months, the Oracle of Omaha’s Berkshire Hathaway is helping to finance a big deal. That’s an encouraging sign.

Financial Times:
- Steep falls in eurozone industrial production on Thursday highlighted the economic slowdown under way across the 15-country region, raising the risk of technical recessions in at least some member countries.

Daily Telegraph:
- Legendary fund manager Anthony Bolton believes the bear market is nearer the end than the beginning and has called time on commodity stocks, advising investors to transfer their money into the banking sector. In an interview with The Daily Telegraph, Mr. Bolton admitted his advice was "controversial" but said the commodity sector would be the next to suffer after downturns in the banking, retail and construction.

China Business News:
- China’s Guangdong province plans to accelerate wage increases to boost household incomes and push exporters to move up the value chain, citing a proposal drafted by the local government. The southern province, China’s main export hub for textiles, electronics and hoes, plans to increase wages by at least 14 percent a year between 2008-2012.
- Overseas funds investing in China’s stock market posted average losses of 42% in the first half of this year, citing Lipper & Co. data.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Upgraded (CMC) and (STLD) to Buy.

Deutsche Bank:
- Rated (GOOG) Buy, target $635.

Caris:
- Rated (FSLR) Buy, target $350.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 futures -.21%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.08%.

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Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (FAST)/.50
- (GE)/.54
- (HITK)/.01
- (COL)/1.02

Upcoming Splits
- (FLR) 2-for-1

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The Trade Deficit for May is estimated at -$62.5 billion versus -$60.9 billion in April.
- The Import Price Index for May is estimated to rise 2.0% versus a 2.3% gain in April.

10:00 am EST
- Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for July is estimated to fall to 55.5 versus 56.4 in June.

2:00 pm EST
- The Monthly Budget Surplus for June is estimated at $30.0 billion versus $27.5 billion in May.

Other Potential Market Movers
- The (MRVL) shareholders meeting, (RMA) shareholders meeting and (PEFF) shareholders meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Higher, Boosted by Construction, Commodity and REIT Shares

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In Play

Stocks Mostly Higher into Final Hour on Short-Covering, Bargain Hunting, Positive Intel Comments

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Software longs, Alternative Energy longs and Biotech longs. I added to my (QQQQ)/(IWM) hedges and then took some of them off today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is mildly positive as the advance/decline line is slightly higher, sector performance is mixed and volume is above average. Investor anxiety is high. Today’s overall market action is bullish. The VIX is rising 3.1% and is high at 26.07. The ISE Sentiment Index is very low at 73.0 and the total put/call is high at 1.09. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running above average most of the day and is currently 1.0. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is rising 5.3% today to 92.56 basis points. This index is up from a low of 52.66 on May 5^th, but down from 129.46 basis points on March 20^th. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is rising .35% today to 143.50. The TED spread is rising 12.93% to 1.13. The AAII % Bulls came in at 22.2% this week, while the % Bears rose to 55.2%. Both professional and individual investor sentiment remains historically depressed. Growth stocks are substantially outperforming value stocks again today. Given the action in certain financial shares, sharp losses in Europe, a $5 spike in oil and deafeningly scary rhetoric from the financial press, today’s market action is more impressive. While I continue to believe a hard reversal lower in commodities is necessary for a sustainable market bottom, today’s whippy market rise in the face of numerous headwinds is the type of action I would expect to see near a sustainable low in equities. Intel(INTC) said over the last hour that that global business is still very strong, which is also a big positive. Nikkei futures indicate an +28 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +61 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering and bargain-hunting.