Wednesday, July 23, 2008

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- John Paulson, the money manager whose wagers against the U.S. housing market helped him earn an estimated $3.7 billion last year, is now seeking to profit from Wall Street's search for capital to offset mortgage writedowns. Paulson plans to open a hedge fund by December that will invest as the world's biggest banks and brokers add to the $345 billion they've raised in the past year, according to two people with knowledge of the matter. The New York-based firm's credit funds rose as much as sixfold last year, helped by bets that rising defaults on subprime home loans would pummel the value of mortgage-backed securities. Rockefeller & Co., a New York investment firm, is also raising money to invest in insurers, banks and brokerages, according to James Chang, one of two portfolio managers of the Rockefeller Global Financial Services Recovery Fund LLC.
- Investors should add Fannie Mae(FNM) and Freddie Mac(FRE) mortgage bonds as increased purchases from mutual funds and foreign central banks make up for a drop in buying at the U.S. government-chartered companies, UBS AG said. The option-adjusted spread between yields on so-called agency mortgage securities and U.S. Treasury notes with maturities similar to their expected lives widened yesterday to 1.56 percentage points, near the two-decade high set in March, according to Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. data
.
- Volkswagen AG and PSA Peugeot Citroen, Europe's two biggest automakers, led a decline in the cost of protecting company debt from default to the lowest in a month after they reported earnings that beat analyst forecasts. The Markit iTraxx Europe index of 125 investment-grade companies fell 4 basis points to 91.75, the lowest since June 20, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. The Markit iTraxx Crossover index of 50 companies with mostly high-risk, high- yield credit ratings fell 10 basis points to 516. The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade index of 125 companies in the U.S. and Canada decreased 4 basis points to 130, according to New York-based broker Phoenix Partners Group.
- Prices of high-risk, high-yield loans rose in the week ended yesterday as banking stocks rallied and crude oil prices fell from record levels. The average actively traded loan rose to 88.63 cents on the dollar, from 87.82 last week, according to Standard & Poor's LCD.
- Corn and soybeans plunged, extending declines from records reached in the past month, on speculation a rising dollar will reduce the allure of commodities as an investment hedge against inflation. ``Commodities were a bubble, and stocks were too cheap, and now we are seeing a shift in investments,'' said Greg Grow, the director of agribusiness for Archer Financial Services in Chicago. ``It could be a long time before commodity positions are completely unwound.'' The UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index, made up of 26 commodities, fell as much as 1.6 percent today to the lowest in almost seven weeks on speculation rising interest rates will reduce investment demand for raw materials as a hedge against inflation. The gauge is down 11 percent since reaching a record 1,723.109 on July 3. ``Selling pressure has been seen from a general commodity sell-off led by crude oil and fund liquidation,'' which has triggered a cut of long positions in commodities, said Joel Karlin, commodity sales coordinator for Western Milling LLC in Goshen, California. ``The bloom is off the inflation story.''
- Crude oil futures fell $1.38/bbl. after a U.S. government report showed that fuel stockpiles increased as consumption tumbled to the lowest in more than a year. ``The 19.9 million barrel demand number is incredibly low and has to have the bulls worried.'' Demand has dropped for three straight weeks, the report showed. U.S. fuel consumption averaged 20.3 million barrels a day in the past four weeks, down 2.1 percent from a year earlier, the department said. ``This is another sign that demand is being hammered. You've reached a price level where there's a demand response.''
- The US dollar increased to a four-week high against the yen and strengthened versus the euro as a U.S. government rescue of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac moved closer to congressional passage.
- Citigroup Inc. Chief Financial Officer Gary Crittenden said earnings will probably be strong enough to absorb any losses created when new accounting rules force it to move off-balance-sheet securities onto its books.
- The U.S. Congress may vote today on a rescue plan for Fannie Mae(FNM) and Freddie Mac(FRE) after lawmakers reached a deal on legislation aimed at alleviating the worst housing recession in a quarter century.
- FirstFed Financial Corp.(FED), the parent of First Federal Bank of California, had the biggest intraday increase in at least 24 years in New York trading after reporting some delinquent loans decreased in June from the previous month.
- EMC Corp.(EMC), the world's largest storage-computer maker, surged the most in more than three years after increasing its 2008 sales goal and reporting profit that exceeded analysts' estimates.
- AT&T Inc.(T), the largest U.S. telephone carrier, rose the most in seven months in New York trading after posting a 30 percent increase in profit and saying the new version of the iPhone is selling twice as fast as the original
.

NY Times:
- Colombia’s Gains Are America’s, Too.

Philly Metro:
- Republican John McCain on Wednesday credited the recent $10-a-barrel drop in the price of oil to President Bush's lifting of a presidential ban on offshore drilling, an action he has been advocating in his presidential campaign. The cost of oil and gasoline is "on everybody's mind in this room," McCain told a town-hall meeting. McCain said Obama's plan to withdraw U.S. troops over a 16-month period "could lead to a resurgence in our enemies, and we would have to come back.” Under a McCain presidency, the Arizona senator said, "We will never have to go back. We will have won this conflict." McCain said that the cost of oil and gas was "an energy issue, an environmental issue and a national security issue." McCain also said that, if elected, he'd have a news conference once a week. He also suggested that he would regularly submit himself to questioning before the House speaker and minority leader just as "the British prime minister goes before Parliament and answers some pretty interesting questions."

MiamiHerald.com:
- Direct-sales businesses are booming.

AppleInsider:
- Steve Jobs is reassuring some of his closest associates that rumors of his health are greatly exaggerated, but is telling those same people that he underwent a procedure this year related to his weight, the New York Times is reporting.

Lloyd’s List:
- Container shipping rates to Europe from Asia are under “severe pressure.” The cost of shipping individual containers has dropped to $650 from $700 in the past two weeks on the so-called spot market. Growth in cargoes is slowing most notably on voyages to the UK, France, Spain and Italy. Owners may idle ships or stop using vessels for specific voyages. Shippers who took vessels under fixed-rate charters are trying to return whatever carriers they can to the owners.

Financial Times:
- Europe Faces High Risk of Recession.
-
Right here, right now - and maybe just for a while - its time to load up on US stocks relative to non-US equities.

CBC:
- Rumors that user-driven news website Digg is close to being sold to Google Inc. have resurfaced, with the internet search leader reportedly offering around $200 million US for the social news site.

Rzeczpospolita:
- Polish economic growth may slow to between 4% and 5% next year as the global slowdown reduces demand for the country’s exports, citing central banker Andrzej Slawinski. The government expects the economy to grow 5.5% this year.

International Oil Daily:
- Iraq Drilling Co. plans to start a joint venture with a unit of Scottish oil and gas explorer Ramco Energy Plc to offer drilling services, citing Iraq’s oil minister. The venture with Mesopotamia Petroleum Co., which was set up by Ramco and Midmar Energy in 2006 to win projects in Iraq, will start work soon, Hussain al-Shahristani said. State-owned Iraq Drilling is also purchasing 19 new rigs, the first time Iraq will buy rigs since sanctions were imposed on the country in 1991 following its invasion of Kuwait.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

Small-cap Growth -.19%

Sector Underperformers:

Gold irlind (-4.09%), Construction (-2.61%) and Utilities (-2.40%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

SEAB, TCB, BVN, IPHS, NRG, COST, ADCT, ABFS, PPDI, CHRW, JAKK, FORM, YRCW, ALGT, PNRA, ODFL, TRMK, ONXX, ZMH, BJ and CVG

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) BYD 2) LFG 3) AET 4) UAUA 5) NTAP

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

Small-cap Value (+2.16%)

Sector Outperformers:

Gaming (+6.88%), Airlines (+6.80%) and Retail (+4.58%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

PHLY, PCBC, UMPQ, WB, XL, NIHD, BCS, KEP, NWPX, MICC, XLTC, SUPX, VOCS, YRCW, ILMN, SCVL, ISRG, EFUT, NATL, INFN, AXYS, HBHC, RIMG, ASCA, WTFC, PRSP, CNH, CRI, ARW, WHR, IAT, CEC, CX, FED and PSJ

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) CTXS 2) NRG 3) NCC 4) AET 5) WLP

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Tuesday, July 22, 2008

Wednesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Deutsche Bank AG analyst Mike Mayo said he has become more positive on the prospects for the banking business as banks reported better-than-expected second quarter earnings without raising new capital. Mayo upgraded Citigroup Inc. to ``hold'' from ``sell'' and reiterated his ``buy'' rating on Wachovia Corp. He's become less ``negative'' as banks report second-quarter results without raising fresh capital, margins better than expected and ``problems have not spread as much as feared,'' he wrote in a note to clients today.
- The cost of protecting Japanese and Australian corporate bonds from default declined, according to traders of credit-default swaps. The Markit iTraxx Japan index fell 9 basis points to 122 as of 9:05 am in Tokyo, according to Morgan Stanley. The Markit iTraxx Australia index fell 11.5 basis points to 132.5, Citigroup prices show. The Markit iTraxx Asia index of 20 high-risk, high-yield borrowers outside Japan, including the Philippine government and India's Tata Motors Ltd., fell 18.5 basis points to 521.5 as of 9 a.m. in Hong Kong, according to ICAP Plc. The region's benchmark of 50 investment-grade borrowers, including the Thai government and Hong Kong conglomerate Hutchison Whampoa Ltd., declined 12 to 132.5.
- Donald Straszheim, vice chairman of Roth Capital Partners, says global stocks are in a ‘bottoming process’ and commodity prices will ‘stall out’ or ‘fall’. (video)
- Nickel prices may plunge as much as 46 percent this year as steelmakers increase production of low-nickel content products, said Jindal Stainless Ltd., India's largest stainless steel producer. The metal is headed for a second straight annual drop, after last year's 21 percent decline as stainless-steel mills resorted to products containing less nickel. The use of nickel in making stainless steel may fall 9.5 percent this year, metals research firm Heinz H. Pariser said July 9. Last year, global nickel production was 1.43 million tons, compared with demand of 1.33 million tons, said Adam Rowley, an analyst at Macquarie Group Ltd. in London. China accounts for a quarter of the global demand, he said.
- Sugar fell for a fifth straight session, its longest decline in two months, as a drop in the price of crude oil renewed speculation that demand will slow for fuel made from sugar cane. Sugar has dropped 14 percent in the past week, a decline Streible blames on banks selling investments to raise money after mortgage-related losses. ``Financial companies needed to raise capital and they were selling some of their investments like natural gas and sugar and crude,'' he said.

- Former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said the biggest danger to Iraq would be to set a schedule for the withdrawal of American troops.
- Crude oil was little changed near a six-week low after falling more than $3 a barrel yesterday on forecasts a Gulf of Mexico hurricane will miss fields and as the dollar rebounded against the euro, reducing commodities' appeal. The number of outstanding oil futures in New York dropped to the lowest in 17 months as oil companies, refiners and institutional investors exited the market. Open interest fell 2.6 percent July 21 to 1.23 million contracts on the Nymex, according to data from the exchange.
- U.S. lawmakers reached agreement on a rescue plan for Fannie Mae(FNM) and Freddie Mac(FRE) that the House may vote on tomorrow, Representative Barney Frank said
.
- Japan, the world's largest grain importer, plans to boost production of rice for feed and flour, as part of a strategy to reduce corn and wheat imports. The country wants to become less dependent on overseas grain supplies to protect it from soaring international prices and ensure long-term security of supply, Yuji Sawa, vice minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, said in an interview.
- Australian inflation accelerated in the second quarter to the fastest pace in two years, adding to pressure on the central bank to leave borrowing costs at a 12- year high
.
- Mexico's central bank Governor Guillermo Ortiz said inflation at the fastest in more than three years is still under pressure even as food and energy prices ease.
- Nissan Motor Co., planning to offer electric cars in the U.S. as early as 2010, said Tennessee and its main electric utility may set up charging stations to promote use of non-polluting vehicles.
- Intuitive Surgical(ISRG) climbed 11% to $312 in after-hours trading. The maker of a robot to aid in surgery said in a statement on Prime Newswire that second-quarter profit increased 67 percent, more than analysts expected, on higher sales of the machine and its related equipment.
- Illumina Inc.(ILMN), maker of a machine that analyses genes, raised its 2008 forecast after reporting a 66 percent gain in profit on sales of equipment to study DNA. Second-quarter net income rose to $15.4 million, or 23 cents a share, from $9.3 million, or 16 cents, San Diego-based Illumina said today in a statement. Revenue jumped 66 percent to $140.2 million. Results beat analysts' estimates by 15 cents. Illumina rose $7.90, or 9.4 percent, to $92 at 4:09 p.m. New York time in extended trading after the close of the Nasdaq Stock Market. The company today also announced a two-for-one stock split.
- VMware Inc.(VMW), the biggest maker of software that lets computers run multiple operating systems, cut its annual sales forecast amid competition from Microsoft Corp.(MSFT) and slowing technology spending
.
- Broadcom Corp.(BRCM), the maker of chips for Nintendo Co.'s Wii video-game console, said profit jumped almost fourfold on higher sales of wireless chips. Expenses will rise this period, the company said, sending the shares lower.
- Yahoo! Inc.(YHOO), the Internet company that added activist investor Carl Icahn to its board yesterday, posted an 18 percent drop in second-quarter profit after spending more on developing new projects.
- Washington Mutual Inc.(WM), the biggest U.S. savings and loan, reported a $3.3 billion second-quarter loss on uncollectible loans as a record number of borrowers were unable to keep up with mortgage payments.
- Brazil's central bank will probably raise its interest rate for a third consecutive meeting today to slow inflation from a 2 1/2-year high
.

Wall Street Journal:
- Three votes have now been cast in the Federal Communications Commission's review of the XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. and Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. merger, but the deal is still no closer to being done.
- Apple Inc.(AAPL) is ramping up its retail strategy in China after years of shying from one of the world's fastest-growing technology markets.
- Despite the rally in banks stocks, struggling banks are still trying to raise capital, and some of the hardest hit are now considering selling their lucrative money-management units to raise cash.

MarketWatch.com:
- Reading the VLMAP. An obscure market-timing indicator has turned positive.
- Schwab(SCHW) taps new CEO, hikes dividend.

NY Times:
- Food and Gas Prices Taking a Toll in Asia. While prices have been rising in the United States and Europe, the biggest increases are being felt in Asia, and countries like India and Vietnam are already having to deal with double-digit inflation. Sharp rises in global food and oil prices are now spilling over into wages and broader measures of inflation across Asia, as the Asian Development Bank noted in a report released Tuesday. “The epicenter of the inflationary storm is really in Asia,” said Cyd Tuano-Amador, the managing director of monetary policy at the Philippines Central Bank. In an interview Tuesday, Boediono, the governor of the Bank of Indonesia, called for a coordinated international move toward tighter monetary policy, including higher interest rates by the United States, so as to slow inflation. World oil prices could fall by 30 percent if countries took coordinated action to reduce liquidity, he said. He attributed much of the recent rise in global commodity prices to excess money in circulation.
- A federal appeals court Tuesday agreed with a lower court ruling that struck down as unconstitutional a 1998 law intended to protect children from sexual material and other objectionable content on the Internet. The decision by the 3rd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in Philadelphia is the latest twist in a decade-long legal battle over the Child Online Protection Act. The fight has already reached the Supreme Court and could be headed back there.

BusinessWeek.com:
- After the earnings call last night I talked with a source who is close to Apple and who who has in the past proven very well informed on the concerns of Apple senior management. This source told me with near-certainty that Jobs’ cancer has not returned.

Forbes.com:
- The U.S. government can't really regulate living hedge funds, but it's looking at a way to oversee dying ones. On Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson said that in cases of insolvency, he wanted "additional powers to manage the resolution, or wind-down, of large nondepository financial institutions, such as larger hedge funds, so as to limit the impact of a failure on the broader financial system."

CNNMoney.com:
- What’s Google(GOOG) News worth? $100 million.

USA Today.com:
- The drop in oil prices Tuesday offered further evidence that investors who only a week and a half ago drove prices to a new high above $147 a barrel are now quickly pulling money out of the market. It was also a reminder that the lack of major news can push the market down in the same way that incremental supply concerns previously pushed prices sharply higher. "This is more of the long exit from the market by the hedge funds," said Jim Ritterbusch, president of energy consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates. "A lot of these investors who have been supporting prices are hitting the road." "Most people I knew were looking for a stronger price rally," Ritterbusch said. "When we can't muster up much steam," he added, large investors dump bets that prices will rise because they sense there is little support for sustained gains. In its weekly pump spending survey, MasterCard found U.S. gasoline demand dropped last week for the thirteenth week in a row. Demand fell 3.3% compared with the same week a year earlier, according to the survey. Since the start of 2008, gasoline demand is down 2.2%.

Reuters:
- SemGroup LP declared bankruptcy on Tuesday after $3.2 billion in oil trading losses torpedoed the formerly 12th-largest private U.S. company. The Tulsa-based company racked up the massive losses as oil prices ran up record gains, undercutting short crude futures positions SemGroup bought to hedge against its 500,000 barrel-per-day trading business. To meet obligations, SemGroup plans to sell off oil and natural gas gathering, transportation, and storage assets worth an estimated $6.14 billion that were purchased in a whirlwind of acquisitions since it was founded in 2000.
- Awareness is low, but 63 percent of those who had a view on it favor a California ballot measure that would require half the state's electricity to come from renewable sources by 2025, a Field poll issued on Tuesday shows. Voter awareness of Proposition 7 on the November ballot is extremely low -- 82 percent of those interviewed said they did not know of the measure.
- The U.S. Senate on Tuesday voted overwhelmingly to open debate on a bill to rein in energy market speculation blamed for high oil and gasoline prices. But final passage of the legislation looked difficult because of disagreements between its Democratic backers and Republicans who want to include other provisions designed to boost domestic oil production.


Financial Times:
- General Electric(GE) has joined the growing procession of US companies seeking solace from their domestic problems in the Middle East. But unlike Citigroup (C) , Merrill Lynch(MER) and the other troubled banks that headed east to ask for billions of dollars in rescue funds, GE is trying to harness its geographical and product reach to increase its exposure to the fast-expanding region.That is why GE's deal with Mubadala, Abu Dhabi's state investment vehicle, is both far-reaching and potentially controversial. In a US presidential year, the sight of a Middle Eastern investment fund buying up shares in a US corporate bellwether such as GE might cause a political backlash. Mr Immelt brushed away such suggestions on Monday, saying the partnership "was all about business". Over the past few years, Mr Immelt and his lieutenants have worked hard to build relationships in the region, in an effort to increase sales of GE's infrastructure such as oil and gas equipment, and other manufacturing products.

Australian Review:
- The number of Australians who spend more than half their income repaying their mortgage has more than doubled the past year, citing a survey. A quarter of people use more than half their income on repayments, know as ‘mortgage stress’, compared with 12% a year ago, citing a survey for Genworth Financial by Retail Financial Intelligence.

Nikkei:
- Toyota Motor’s(TM) first-half sales fell 7% in North America and Europe because of soaring gasoline costs, citing an unidentified company official. In China, first-half sales rose 34% to 285,000 vehicles, below the projected 40% increase.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:

- Reiterated Buy on (UNH), target $35.
- Reiterated Buy on (CSGS), raised estimates, target $19.50.
- Reiterated Buy on (CAT), target $106.
- Reiterated Buy on (STLD), raised estimates, boosted target to $44.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are +.25% to +2.25% on average.
S&P 500 futures +.02%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.01%.

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Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (APD)/1.31
- (ATI)/1.54
- (TRV)/1.46
- (EMC)/.18
- (GD)/1.44
- (NWA)/-.50
- (MCD)/.85
- (EXC)/1.01
- (PX)/1.046
- (R)/1.16
- (ETH)/.44
- (HSY)/.28
- (BTU)/.59
- (GENZ)/.97
- (WLP)/1.36
- (WHR)/1.43
- (PFCB)/.32
- (PM)/.83
- (WYE)/.86
- (BA)/1.22
- (T)/.76
- (COP)/3.48
- (FFIV)/.22
- (RHI)/.42
- (QCOM)/.54
- (MCK)/.80
- (CMG)/.75
- (ALL)/1.30
- (NE)/1.31
- (OSIP)/.51
- (VAR)/.46
- (TEX)/2.02
- (KNX)/.15
- (WFR)/1.01
- (RYL)/-.79
- (AMZN)/.26
- (AFL)/1.00
- (PHM)/-.97
- (BUD)/.93
- (SY)/.43

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
10:35 am EST

- Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil drawdown of -600,000 barrels versus a +2,952,000 barrel increase the prior week. Gasoline supplies are expected to rise by +200,000 barrels versus a +2,472,000 barrel increase the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +2,500,000 barrels versus a +3,189,000 barrel increase the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is expected unch. versus a +.33% increase the prior week.

2:00 pm EST
- The Fed’s Beige Book.

Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed’s Kohn speaking, Fed’s Mishkin speaking and weekly MBA mortgage applications report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by financial and transportation shares in the region. I expect US equities to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish at Session Highs, Boosted by Financial, Airline, Gaming, Homebuilding, Networking and Retail Shares

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