Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,257.76 -.23%*

Click here for the Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
S&P 500 1,257.76 -.23%
DJIA 11,370.69 -1.09%
NASDAQ 2,310.53 +1.22%
Russell 2000 710.34 +2.49%
Wilshire 5000 12,779.97 -.08%
Russell 1000 Growth 539.67 -.20%
Russell 1000 Value 666.27 -.35%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 665.24 +.05%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 842.75 -.38%
Morgan Stanley Technology 550.71 -.63%
Transports 4,959.07 -.90%
Utilities 479.30 -2.86%
MSCI Emerging Markets 42.46 -1.52%

Sentiment/Internals
NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 42,392 +3.0%
Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -389 -10.83%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 18.0 -43.75%
CFTC Oil Large Speculative Longs 198,019 -5.71%
Total Put/Call .82 -10.87%
OEX Put/Call .67 -57.05%
ISE Sentiment 110.0 +22.22%
NYSE Arms 1.16 +38.09%
Volatility(VIX) 22.91 -4.74%
G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.59 -4.67%
Smart Money Flow Index 8,138.50 +.58%
AAII % Bulls 35.82 +43.28%
AAII % Bears 44.03 -24.27%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 123.34 -4.50%
Reformulated Gasoline 303.26 -4.11%
Natural Gas 9.07 -14.91%
Heating Oil 352.50 -4.44%
Gold 940.0 -2.98%
Base Metals 234.13 -2.61%
Copper 360.50 -1.69%
Agriculture 412.46 -2.04%

Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.09% +1 basis point
10-year TIPS Spread 2.32% -12 basis points
TED Spread 1.07 -27 basis points
N. Amer. Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 135.92 -.91%
Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 244.91 -1.09%
Citi US Economic Surprise Index +35.10 +13.59%
Fed Fund Futures 6.6% chance of 25 hike, 93.4% chance of no move on 8/5
Iraqi 2028 Govt Bonds 74.63 +.03%
4-Wk MA of Jobless Claims 382,500 +1.2%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 6.63% +37 basis points
Weekly Mortgage Applications 489,600 -6.24%
Weekly Retail Sales +2.7%
Nationwide Gas $4.00/gallon -.11/gallon
US Cooling Demand Next 7 Days 10.0% above normal
ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 129.40 -1.30%
US Dollar Index 72.86 +.93%
Baltic Dry Index 8,771 -3.18%
CRB Index 412.22 -3.50%

Best Performing Style
Small-cap Value +3.08%

Worst Performing Style
Mid-cap Growth -1.30%

Leading Sectors
Airlines +16.51%
HMOs +13.01%
Networking +6.42%
Biotech +5.40%
Gaming +4.73%

Lagging Sectors
Steel -4.26%
Oil Service -4.35%
Semis -5.64%
I-Banks -6.05%
Gold -7.47%

One-Week High-Volume Gainers

One-Week High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Finish Near Session Highs, Boosted by Technology, Airline, Commodity, REIT and Construction Shares

Evening Review
Market Summary
Top 20 Biz Stories
Today’s Movers
Market Performance Summary
WSJ Data Center
Sector Performance
ETF Performance
Style Performance
Commodity Movers
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Commentary
After-hours Movers
After-hours Real-Time Stock Bid/Ask
After-hours Stock Quote
After-hours Stock Chart
In Play

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Plunge in Oil, Less Economic Pessimism, Short-Covering

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Alternative Energy longs, Biotech longs, Computer longs and Internet longs. I covered all my (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is higher, sector performance is mostly positive and volume is about average. Investor anxiety is slightly above average. Today’s overall market action is bullish. The VIX is falling 3.5% and is still above-average at 22.60. The ISE Sentiment Index is low at 110.0 and the total put/call is about average at .85. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running slightly above average most of the day and is currently 1.08. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is rising 2.2% today to 79.67 basis points. This index is up from a low of 52.66 on May 5^th, but down from 129.46 basis points on March 20^th. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is +.65% today to 135.33 basis points. The TED spread is falling another 7.22% to 1.07. The TED spread is now down 40 basis points in 10 days. It is down 133 basis points from its August 2007 high. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, has dropped 32 basis points in 14 days to 2.32% on the fall in commodities. This remains a large positive. The fact that the broad market is able to move higher today with weakness in the financial sector is also a positive. Small-caps and growth stocks are especially strong. Russian stocks plunged 5.6% last night and are now down 22% from their record high. Russian equities now join the other BRIC markets in bear market territory(Shanghai -53.2%, India -32.7% and Brazil -22.6%). I still see further weakness in all four over the intermediate-term. The Citi US economic surprise index is now up to +35.10, while the Eurozone economic surprise index has fallen to -149.80. This is the largest discrepancy I have ever seen. I suspect the US dollar, which rose .92% this week, will make another push higher next week. Nikkei futures indicate an +116 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +10 open in Germany on Monday. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on falling energy prices, short-covering and less economic pessimism.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Crude oil fell to a seven-week low as a report showed that OPEC is bolstering output to lower prices and fuel consumption in the U.S. and Asia drops. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries increased output by 200,000 barrels a day in July, according to preliminary estimates from PetroLogistics Ltd. Oil has slipped more than $24 a barrel from the $147.27 record on July 11 as fuel use declined. ``The oil market over the last two weeks has begun to focus on the larger fundamentals, which are bearish,'' said Tim Evans, an energy analyst for Citi Futures Perspective in New York. ``Today's PetroLogistics report on OPEC output points to further increases in supply. The U.S. gasoline market is about as weak as I've ever seen during the summer months.'' U.S. fuel demand averaged 19.9 million barrels a day last week, the lowest since January 2007, the Energy Department reported on July 23. U.S. gasoline consumption fell 3.3 percent from a year ago, the 13th consecutive weekly decline, a MasterCard Inc. report on July 22 showed. Japanese oil imports fell for the first time in nine months, the government said yesterday. South Korea consumed less fuel for the eighth straight month in June, state-run Korea National Oil Corp. said on July 22. The U.S., Japan and South Korea are the world's first, second and fifth biggest oil importers, according to the U.S. Energy Department.
- Legg Mason Inc.(LM) reported a second straight quarterly loss as subpar investment returns led to $18.4 billion in customer redemptions and the Baltimore-based company bailed out money funds saddled with bad debt. Legg Mason rose as much as 4.6 percent in New York trading on signs the worst may be over.
- The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for commodities, had its biggest decline in an 11-day reverse on a lack of cargoes to haul. The index of international transport costs fell 134 points, or 1.5%, to a more than three-month low of 8,637. “There is an oversupply of ships,” Dorian Benson, a director at freight-derivatives brokerage GFI South Africa, said. Investors expect rate to drop, according to forward freight agreements which be on future rates.
- Nickel headed for the biggest weekly decline in London in four months as stainless-steel mills, the biggest users of the metal, said demand is weakening. Copper and aluminum increased. Jinchuan Group Co., Asia's biggest nickel producer, cut prices by 11 percent from today. Acerinox SA, the world's largest stainless-steel producer, and Finland's Outukumpu Oyj said this week that orders from construction slowed. Nickel has fallen 30 percent this year, the worst among all LME-traded metals. Prices are now below production costs of so- called nickel pig iron. LME-monitored copper stockpiles jumped 2,600 tons, or 2 percent, to 133,475 tons, the highest since March 7. They have increased 8.9 percent this month. Including those at commodity exchanges in New York and Shanghai, inventories totaled 181,027 tons, or 3.5 days of global consumption, according to Bloomberg calculations. Last year's average was 4.9 days.
- Russia's dollar-denominated RTS Index fell the most in six months, plunging it into a bear market, after Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said OAO Mechel billionaire shareholder Igor Zyuzin may need a ``doctor.'' The 50-stock RTS index sank for a fourth day, dropping 5.5 percent to 1,952.96 at 3:37 p.m. in Moscow, bringing its decline from its May 19 high to 22 percent. A drop of 20 percent from a peak within a year is the common definition of a bear market.
- Honda Motor Co., Japan's second- largest automaker, posted an unexpected 8.1 percent gain in fiscal first-quarter profit after record gasoline prices spurred demand for its fuel-efficient Fit and Civic cars.

Wall Street Journal:
- Gap Is Narrowing in Battleground States. McCain Chips Away At Obama’s Lead In Four Key Races.

CNBC.com:
- Washington Mutual(WM) boosted its liquidity by $10 billion, to $50 billion, in the moth since the end of the second quarter. (video)

NY Post:
- Blackstone Group LP(BX) has allocated $1.25 billion to buy troubled subprime mortgage loans through Bayview Financial Holdings LP. Bayview has already used about 40% of Blackstone’s capital to acquire loans and will renegotiate terms with borrowers who have stopped payment.

Wcbstv.com:
- Barack Obama's campaign has received roughly 10 times more money from declared U.S.Germany, France and Britain than his Republican rival, reflecting his popularity in Europe as he makes his first tour of the continent as the presumed Democratic nominee. donors living in

AP:
- Iran wants to increase its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, the country’s chief IAEA delegate said. “We will continue our cooperation with the agency in accordance with our legal obligations,” Ali Ashgar Soltanieh, who represents Iran at the IAEA, said. Soltanieh told the AP a meeting yesterday between VP Gholam Reza Aghazadeh and IAEA Director-General Mohamed ElBaradei focused on “the promotion of cooperation” with the agency.

Reuters:
- Brazilian energy giant Petrobras (PBR) plans to install two production units every two years from 2010 to pump oil from sub-salt reserves in the off-shore Santos basin, an official from the firm said on Thursday. Assistant director for Exploration and Production, Alvaro Costa, estimated future production of 1 million barrels per day from the sub-salt layers of the Tupi field.

La Tribune:
- French vehicle fuel consumption plunged 10% in June because of higher prices at the pump, citing Jean-Louis Schilansky, director of the Union Francaise des Industries Petrolieres. The decline was “enormous,” he said. During the previous five months of the year, fuel use was almost unchanged compared with 2007.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

Large-cap Value +.24%

Sector Underperformers:

I-Banks irlind (-3.09%), Banks (-1.71%) and Gaming (-1.68%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

ABAX, CPHD, VLCM, IBKR, LNCE, COLM, POWI, HITT, VSEA, UTEK, IDXX, CYMI, YRCW, ANF, BMC, WDC and GPN

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) BMC 2) TOL 3) DTV 4) CTXS 5) CROX