Stocks Finish Near Session Lows, Weighed Down by Commodity, Construction and Homebuilding Shares

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Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Global Growth Concerns, Forced Selling

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Semi longs, Medical longs, Biotech longs and Commodity shorts. I added (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges and added to my (EEM) short today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is modestly negative as the advance/decline line is slightly lower, sector performance is mixed and volume is about average. Investor anxiety is above average. Today’s overall market action is bearish. The VIX is rising 2.4% and is still above-average at 23.11. The ISE Sentiment Index is low at 111.0 and the total put/call is slightly above average at .94. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running around average most of the day and is currently .88. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is rising 1.5% today to 84.83 basis points. This index is up from a low of 52.66 on May 5^th, but down from 129.46 basis points on March 20^th. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is rising 2.4% today to 135.5 basis points. The TED spread is falling 2.4% to 1.11. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is stable at 2.29%, which is the lowest since May 2nd and down 34 basis points in less than a month. As I said several weeks ago, the stunning rally in the hated financials and decline in the much-loved commodities would likely lead to a spike in hedge fund closure rumors. We have been getting those rumors and today’s action indicates to me that some of those rumors are likely true. Mid-cap growth shares, which had been the best performers for quite some time, are especially weak today. This is likely a result of momentum funds cutting risk across the board. Financial shares continue to consolidate recent gains well. The (XLF) is near session highs. The energy sector corporate insiders picked up selling substantially last week. Energy insiders sold $507,492,959 worth of stock, while only purchasing $22,379,085 worth. This is noteworthy, especially considering insider activity remains quite bullish in other sectors. The Energy Intelligence Group reported that global oil production remained at a record high of 87.8 million barrels per day in June, with global demand at 86.8 million barrels per day. I think global demand for oil began to decelerate in July much more than is commonly perceived by the many oil bulls. I suspect emerging markets will likely see weakness again tonight. Brazil, Russia, India and China, which had been investor favorites, are under the most pressure now. Nikkei futures indicate an +27 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +39 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade modestly lower into the close from current levels on forced selling, global growth worries and more shorting.

Today's Headlins

Bloomberg:
- Plunging prices for cocoa, natural gas and sugar are sending the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities to it biggest one-day decline since March. The CRB index fell 3.3 percent to 402.22 at 12:59 p.m. in New York, which would mark the largest slide since March 19. ``Speculation had been driving these markets and they were due for a correction as so many prices had gotten overdone,'' said Peter Sorrentino, who helps manage $16.7 billion at Huntington Asset Advisors in Cincinnati. ``There are moderating growth expectations that are going to hurt industrial commodities. Going forward, you have to be very selective.'' Commodities are ``at the beginning of a long-term bear market,'' after rallying the past seven years, Michael Aronstein, chief investment strategist at Oscar Gruss & Son Inc. in New York, said last week. Aronstein correctly said in June that prices for raw materials would start to decline.
- Crude oil fell below $120 a barrel for the first time since May amid speculation that Tropical Storm Edouard will miss most offshore oil facilities as it approaches the coast of Texas. Futures fell as much as $5.60 a barrel, shrugging off port closings and rig evacuations in the Gulf, a threat to oil supplies from Iran and a fire at Valero Energy Corp.'s Houston refinery. Edouard, which may become a hurricane tomorrow, is on a course for Galveston, Texas, the biggest U.S. petroleum port. ``A market that can't rally on bullish news is a bear market,'' said Tim Evans, an energy analyst for Citi Futures Perspective in New York. ``We're just seeing disappointment that for all of the tropical-storm news, the talk of Iran and Valero's explosion, all of these bullish stories are not pushing the price higher.'' Regular gasoline at the pump, averaged nationwide, fell 0.6 cent to $3.881 a gallon, AAA, the nation's largest motorist organization, said today on its Web site. Pump prices reached a record $4.114 a gallon on July 17, as higher prices curbed demand. ``Demand destruction seems to be gaining some credibility and traction,'' said Kyle Cooper, an analyst at IAF Advisors in Houston. News about Iran testing a new anti-ship weapon this weekend and the storm ``would have had the market up $5 three months ago. The fact that it hasn't does indicate some shift in psychology.''
- The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for commodities, posted its longest run of losses for three years, haven fallen for 17 consecutive sessions, on speculation Chinese cargo buyers are curbing their demand.
- Soybeans dropped to the lowest in almost three months and corn fell as rain and cooler temperatures in the Midwest improve yield potential after hot weather stressed crops in the U.S., the world's biggest producer.
- Citigroup Inc.(C) is closing a $400 million convertible arbitrage fund, the final step in winding down its $2 billion Tribeca Global Investments group, people familiar with the plans said.
- Drugs made by Gilead Sciences Inc.(GILD) that have been shown to treat the AIDS virus will be tested in healthy people to see if they can prevent the lethal disease.
- ImClone Systems Inc.'s(IMCL) board, led by billionaire investor Carl C. Icahn, said Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.'s(BMY) $4.3 billion buyout is too low and undervalues ImClone's pipeline of experimental cancer drugs.
- The 65 days that plunged Brazil into a bear market are reminding investors that Latin America's biggest economy is still an emerging nation.
- Beijing's air-pollution index rose above the World Health Organization recommended maximum for the first time in four days, less than 96 hours before the opening of the Olympic Games.

Wall Street Journal:
- Unleashing America’s Ingenuity By Unlocking Its Energy.
- Van Wagoner Emerging Growth has consistently disappointed investors, giving it a dubious distinction as the worst-performing U.S. actively managed stock fund over the past 10 years. But at least one thing is changing at the woebegone fund: Longtime manager Garrett Van Wagoner is planning to step down, even though Mr. Van Wagoner, 52 years old, controls the company that sponsors the fund, Van Wagoner Capital Management.
- July turned out to be the slowest month for initial public offerings world-wide in five years, and no significant pickup is expected this month.
- Google’s(GOOG) YouTube will be getting a small slice of the Olympic pie, too, the Intl. Olympic Committee said.
- Iraqi cleric Muqtada al-Sadr plans to disband his Mahdi Army militia and change the group into a civic and social-service organization.

Washington Post:
- In his latest film incarnation, Batman rescues Gotham from the Joker. In real life, the Caped Crusader’s blockbuster movie, The Dark Knight, is proving to be a lifesaver for IMAX(IMAX), a chain of specialty theaters.

CNNMoney.com:
- The Rise and Fall of Jimmy Cayne.

Advertising Age:
- Prius Demand Surges as Gas Prices Rise.

Reuters:
- Singapore Telecommunications Ltd., Southeast Asia's largest telecoms firm, will launch Apple Inc's (AAPL) third-generation iPhone in Singapore before the end of August.
- General Electric Co (GE) has no plans to sell its NBC Universal media unit and is on track to double its China annual revenue to $10 billion by 2010, a top executive said on Monday. Some investors have said they would like Chief Executive Jeff Immelt to consider selling NBC after the Olympics because it is growing more slowly than GE's infrastructure businesses. GE has been using the Games as a chance to show off its energy-efficient "Ecomagination" line, and says it is contributing to 400 infrastructure projects in and around Beijing.

Financial Times:
- The world must repel calls to contain competitive markets, by Alan Greenspan. The surprise of recent months is not that global economic growth is slowing, but that there is any growth at all.

Bild:
- German companies will start cutting jobs this winter as slowing global economic growth threatens demand for goods made in Europe’s largest economy, citing economists and lobbyists.

Vedomosti:
- Apple Inc.’s(AAPL) iPhones will go on sale in Russia next year, citing Evgeny Butman, a Moscow-based director of Apple IMC, Apple’s official vendor in the country. No single carrier will have exclusive rights to iPhone’s service contracts.

Bear Radar

Style Outperformer:

Mid-cap Growth (-2.64%)

Sector Outperformers:

Coal (-7.11%), Oil Tankers (-6.0%) and Oil Service (-5.51%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

RRC, UDRL, SMG, SWSI, FCX, RIIO, CHIC, RAIL, VRTX, HNSN, SIRO, CBEY, VISN, DISCA, SBAC, NTL, IEO, TNP and AEC

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) TRA 2) LRCX 3) WMB 4) ETR 5) MNST

Personal Spending/Incomes Exceed Estimates, PCE Core Rises Slightly More, Factory Orders Jump

- Personal Income for June rose .1% versus estimates of a -.2% decline and a 1.8% increase in May.

- Personal Spending for June rose .6% versus estimates of a .4% gain and a .8% increase in May.

- The PCE Core for June rose .3% versus estimates of a .2% gain and an upwardly revised .2% increase in May.

- Factory Orders for June rose 1.7% versus estimates of a .7% gain and an upwardly revised .9% increase in May.

BOTTOM LINE: Personal Incomes and Spending exceeded economists’ estimates in June, while the PCE Core increased slightly more, Bloomberg reported. About $28 billion in tax rebates went out in June, versus $50 billion in late April and May. The PCE Core, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 2.3% year-over-year in June, which is still below the 20-year average of a 2.4% rise and well below the 3.6% year-over-year increase going back to January 1960. Despite the diminishing positive effects from the tax rebates and numerous headwinds, weekly retail sales remain at multi-month highs and now energy and food prices are falling significantly. The S&P Goldman Agriculture Commodity Spot Index is down another -4.86% today and is breaking convincingly below its 200-day moving average for the first time since June 2004. This index is now in bear market territory, falling 22% from its closing high set on March 12^th of this year. As well, oil is dropping 3.3%, despite Iran/hurricane worries, and has plunged 18% in three weeks. The broad CRB commodity index is down 15% in a month. This is a large positive for the consumer psyche and spending that investors seem to be ignoring right now.

Factory Orders in the US rose more than forecast in June, Bloomberg reported. The 1.7% rise in bookings was the largest this year. Orders excluding volatile transportation equipment rose 2.3%, the most since April. Manufacturers had 1.22 months worth of goods on hand at the current sales pace, down from 1.23 months in May. Bookings for capital goods excluding defense and aircraft, a gauge of future business demand, rose a healthy 1.2% in June. Shipments of such goods, which is used to compute GDP, rose .7%. I expect factory orders to rise again in July on inventory rebuilding.

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

Large-cap Growth (-.93%)

Sector Outperformers:

HMOs (+1.55%), Semis (+1.0%) and Drugs (+.99%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

CHD, CI, HUM, NVS, HLF, MMR, STO, PSPT, SATS, STEC, MATL, TTEC, MDCO, UEIC, IPHS, MPWR, FSYS, DXPE, GXDX, LHCG, IXJ, RAH, ELN, KND, HW and GAS

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) CB 2) SAP 3) TSRA 4) AMSC 5) FCL