Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Russia promised to pull back troops from Georgia under a European Union-mediated peace plan after President Dmitry Medvedev ordered a halt to a five-day offensive in the former Soviet neighbor.
-
New York Times Co.(NYT) faces increased financial pressure to cut its dividend as credit quality deteriorates amid record advertising declines. Credit-default swaps used to speculate on New York Times' creditworthiness or to hedge against losses are trading as if the company already was rated junk, according to data from Moody's credit strategy group. The contracts, costing $397,000 a year to protect $10 million in debt for five years, trade as if the company had a Ba3 rating from Moody's, three levels below its actual Baa3 rating, the data show.
- Contracts on the Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of 50 companies with mostly high-risk, high-yield credit ratings decreased 5 basis points to 547, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. prices at 7:50 a.m. in London. Credit-default swaps on the Markit CDX North America Investment Grade index, a benchmark gauge of credit risk linked to the bonds of 125 companies in the U.S. and Canada, fell 1 basis point to 130.5 basis points at the close in New York, according to Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
- According to Morgan Stanley(MS), there are clear signs of a slowdown in India over the last few months. A number of indicators show that investments growth has decelerated over the last six months. Capital goods output growth has slowed to 6.8% during the three months ending June 2008, from the peak of 24.2% for the three months ending October 2007. Similarly, the trend for aggregate corporate fund raising has also suffered over the last six months. We believe the combined impact of slowing domestic consumption, higher domestic cost of capital and reduced capital access from international capital markets will result in further major slowdown in investment cycle over the next 12 months. Morgan Stanley does not see a recovery until 2010.
- The UK pound slid to its lowest level in almost 21 months against the dollar after an industry report showed U.K. house prices fell in July, adding to evidence the economy is slowing.
- Dennis Garman, economist and editor of the Gartman Letter, calls the US dollar a ‘safe have’ and says to avoid gold. (video)
- The US dollar headed for a sixth day of gains against the euro, the longest rally since October 2006, on speculation tumbling commodity prices will give a boost to the world's largest economy. The greenback also rose against the Australian and New Zealand currencies as crude oil traded near a 14-week low, copper fell to the weakest in six months and gold dropped to the cheapest since December.
- Posco, Asia's biggest maker of stainless steel, and rival Jindal Stainless Ltd. cut prices of the rust-resistant metal after the cost of nickel declined. Posco cut prices by as much as 10 percent from Aug. 18, the first reduction this year, Ko Min Jin, a spokeswoman for the Pohang, South Korea-based company, said today. Jindal, India's largest producer, dropped prices by more than 5 percent. Nickel has slumped 32 percent this year as rising supplies outpace demand from steelmakers. World stainless-steel demand probably won't recover until early 2009 as soaring energy prices and a property slump in major economies curb consumption, MEPS (International) Ltd. said July 31.

- Corn declined as the U.S. crop's condition improved last week after rains fell in parts of the Midwest, improving production prospects. Soybeans and wheat also dropped.
- Crude oil fell $.81/bbl., despite tensions between Russia and Georgia, as the US dollar traded near a six-month high. China, the second-largest oil consumer, said yesterday crude oil imports fell 7% in July.
- Copper fell 20 percent below last month's all-time high in London trading, entering a bear market, on speculation a worsening global growth outlook will exacerbate falling demand. Zinc dropped to a two-year low. ``It's a bear market if you think the copper cycle is really over,'' said Michael Widmer, an analyst at Lehman Brothers Holdings Ltd. in London, who forecasts copper to drop to $7,000 in August. ``The wind is probably out of the base metals.''
- Sales of New Zealand houses fell 33 percent from a year earlier in July as record-high interest rates curtailed demand for property.

Wall Street Journal:
- Signs are emerging that Americans are cutting down on their appetite for oil, driving fewer miles, buying more fuel efficient vehicles and modifying their power consumption habits. US motorists drove 966 million fewer miles in May than they did a year earlier, a 3.7% decline, citing the US Transportation Dept. US consumers are buying fewer sport-utility vehicles and more energy-saving washing machines as they reduce consumption. Mass-transit usage rose 3.4% in the first quarter, citing the American Public Transportation Assoc. Procter & Gamble(PG) is filling smaller bottles with more-powerful laundry detergent.

- Wal-Mart’s(WMT) Three-Year Turnaround Plan May Be Working.

NY Times:
- Is Goldman Sachs(GS) Losing its Halo? Two analysts lowered their ratings Tuesday on Goldman Sachs. In Tuesday’s report, Mr. Mayo said new evidence of economic slowdowns in China and Europe may be bad news for Goldman, which gets much of its revenue from overseas.
- NYC may photo the license plates of vehicles entering Manhattan and scan them for radioactivity to strengthen security against a possible terrorist attack, citing a Police Dept. proposal.

NY Post:
- The SEC is working furiously to unveil a proposal next month that would permanently tighten existing rules for short selling.

Washington Post:
- European Unity Under Pressure as Economies Slow.
- Antiwar activist Cindy Sheehan has qualified to run as an independent against House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in November’s general election. She says Pelosi has failed the country by refusing to cut off funding for the war after Democrats reclaimed the majority in the 2006 election.

TmoNews:
- Presale of Google’s(GOOG) Android phone will begin on September 17.

Reuters:
- Intel’s(INTC) CFO said he is comfortable with Q3 revenue forecast of $10 billion-$10.6 billion versus consensus of $10.3 billion. He said the Atom processor is off to a very strong start and that it is far exceeding estimates.

Market News International:
- The German economy may have contracted 1% in the second quarter, Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck said.

Il Messaggero:
- European Central Bank executive board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said the economy may show “extended weakness” in the next few quarters, citing an interview.

Le Phare:
- The Democratic Republic of Congo western basin contains about 4 billion barrels of crude oil reserves and millions of cubic meters of natural gas, citing Perenco SA. Oil-industry experts are meeting in the capital to discuss ways of increasing the central African nation’s oil production.

Stuttgarter Zeitung:
- European Central Bank council member Axel Weber said the bank stressed after its last policy meeting that fighting inflation remains its “highest priority.” Weber said the inflation outlook is poor and the ECB must prevent the higher cost of living from becoming a yardstick in wage negotiations. Weber, who heads the German Bundesbank, said he doesn’t expect the euro-area inflation rate to fall below the bank’s 2% limit “this year or next.”

Caijing:
- China’s top food production quality director committed suicide by jumping off a building a day after he met with Beijing prosecutors on alleged financial corruption

Haaretz:
- Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on Tuesday rejected an Israeli peace proposal, which included withdrawal from 93 percent of the West Bank, because it does not provide for a contiguous Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital. Nabil Abu Rdainah, Abbas's spokesman, told the official Palestinian news agency WAFA that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's plan showed a "lack of seriousness." Under the proposal, Israel would return to the Palestinians 93 percent of the West Bank, plus all of the Gaza Strip, when the Palestinian Authority regains control over the Gaza Strip, which the militant group Hamas seized from forces loyal to Abbas in June 2006.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

Large-cap Value -1.68%

Sector Underperformers:

Road & Rail irlind (-4.90%), Construction (-4.79%) and I-Banks (-4.46%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

CHL, UNP, ARII, INWK, AFAM, ZOLT, ERES, RNOW, CMED, NUAN, EZPW, FSIN, FWLT, CEG, SXE, DPM, MDR, KV/A, FLR, KYN and PNM

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) CEG 2) LDK 3) CSX 4) ARO 5) UNP

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

Mid-cap Growth (-.31%)

Sector Outperformers:

Airlines (+4.51%), Gaming (+1.26%) and Papers (+.93%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

MOS, AEM, UB, TWTC, CNSL, FOSL, TACT, JASO, OMRI, ASEI, GIGM, AMCN, UAUA, CSIQ, CEDC, SOLF, HANS, NATI, HMIN and OTEX

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) LDK 2) TTWO 3) WU 4) ABB 5) SIL

Trade Deficit Narrows More Than Expected

- The Trade Deficit for June narrowed to -$56.8 billion versus estimates of -$62.0 billion and -$59.2 billion in May.

BOTTOM LINE: The US trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed in June as the biggest jump in exports in more than four years overcame record imports of petroleum, Bloomberg reported. Exports jumped 4%, the biggest percentage increase since February 2004, led by record overseas sales of industrial supplies, capital goods, food and consumer goods. US imports rose 1.8%, propelled by a record $44.5 billion in purchases of foreign petroleum. After eliminating the influence of price changes, the trade gap shrank to $39.1 billion, the lowest since December 2001. This should lead to an upward revision to 2Q GDP. The deficit with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries expanded by $200 million to a record $18.1 billion. I expect the Trade Deficit to continue to improve over the intermediate-term on lower commodity prices and still strong exports.

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot Commentary
Market Performance Summary
Style Performance
Sector Performance
WSJ Data Center
Top 20 Biz Stories
IBD Breaking News
Movers & Shakers
Upgrades/Downgrades
In Play
Exchange Volume vs. Average

NYSE Unusual Volume

NASDAQ Unusual Volume

Hot Spots

Option Dragon

NASDAQ 100 Heatmap

DJIA Quick Charts

Chart Toppers

Real-Time Intraday Quote/Chart
Dow Jones Hedge Fund Indexes

Monday, August 11, 2008

Tuesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The US dollar traded near a 5 1/2-month high against the euro on speculation tumbling commodity prices will give a boost to the world's largest economy. The Australian dollar slid for an 11th day, its longest losing streak since at least 1975, and New Zealand's currency declined to an 11-month low as prices of raw materials the nations export declined. Raw materials account for 60 percent of Australia's exports, while sales of commodities including lumber make up 70 percent of New Zealand's overseas shipments. ``The trend is for commodities to weaken and the dollar to strengthen,'' said Masanobu Ishikawa, general manager of foreign exchange at Tokyo Forex & Ueda Harlow Ltd., Japan's largest currency broker. ``We clearly have weaker growth outside the U.S.,'' said Benedikt Germanier, a currency strategist at UBS AG in Stamford, Connecticut, in an interview on Bloomberg Television. ``That's enough for the dollar to sustainably gain ground.''
- Short interest on the NYSE fell 1.47% from a record over the last two weeks of July to 18,337,000,000 shares.
- New NYSE Short-Selling Targets. Here are the 25 NYSE stocks with the largest increase in short interest relative to their floats over the last two weeks of July:
-
Gold plunged to the lowest in more than seven months as the dollar gained against the euro, reducing the metal's appeal as an alternative investment to assets denominated in the U.S.08 at 9:57 a.m. Singapore time. currency. Gold fell to $802.34 an ounce, the lowest since Dec. 21, and 22 percent below its March 17 record of $1,032.70 an ounce. The metal traded at $807.
- With Russia's superior army overwhelming parts of Georgia, French President Nicolas Sarkozy will fly to Moscow today to try to persuade the government to end its first foreign offensive since the Cold War.
- Mexican copper production may rise 8.4% this year as capacity increases more than make up for a strike at the country’s largest copper mine, an industry group said. Output may climb to 350,000 metric tons from 323,000 tons last year, said Sergio Almazan, director of Mexico’s Mining Chamber of Commerce. Production of the metal used in pipes and wires may rise to 420,000 tons next year should Grupo Mexico restart Cananea. Mexico will reclaim its spot as the world’s largest silver producer in 2010, surpassing Peru, when Goldcorp’s Penasquito mine reaches full capacity, Almazan said. Gold output may more than double to 100 tons in 2010 as Coeur d’Alene Mine’s Palmarejo and other mines start operating, Almazan said.
- Carl Icahn's hedge funds lost 9.1 percent in the second quarter on losses of $773 million from investments in companies such as Yahoo! Inc.(YHOO) and Motorola Inc.(MOT) The funds had net investor withdrawals of $166 million during the quarter, according to a filing today with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
- Australian credit-default swaps led the cost of Asia-Pacific default protection lower on speculation the nation's banking sector is more resistant to losses from credit-market writedowns. The Markit iTraxx Australia index of credit-default swaps fell 5.5 basis points to 139.5 as of 1:17 p.m. in Sydney, JPMorgan Chase & Co. prices show. Japan's main index declined 2 to 118, Morgan Stanley prices show, and contracts in the rest of Asia also fell. Asia's index of 50 investment-grade borrowers outside Japan, including the Thai government and Hong Kong's Hutchison Whampoa Ltd., fell 3 to 142 and the region's benchmark of high-risk, high-yield borrowers declined 5 to 550, BNP Paribas prices show.
- Morgan Stanley(MS) had its long-term credit rating lowered by Moody's Investors Service, which cited the second-biggest U.S. securities firm's failed risk-management practices.
- U.K. house prices fell in July as the squeeze on credit locked out buyers and brought the property market to a ``virtual standstill,'' the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said. The number of real-estate agents and surveyors saying prices dropped exceeded those reporting gains by 83.9 percentage points, the group said today in London. The reading was 94.7 percentage points in April, the most since the series began in 1978.

- LDK Solar Co.(LDK), a Chinese maker of silicon wafers used in solar cells, said second-quarter profit increased more than fivefold, beating estimates, as it expanded output faster than expected. LDK shares jumped 19.7% in extended trading.
- Gilead Sciences Inc.(GILD) won U.S. approval to sell Viread, the oldest of its AIDS medicines, as a treatment for chronic hepatitis B. Worldwide sales may grow to $810 million next year from an expected $600 million this year, according to Joel Sendek, an analyst at Lazard Capital Markets in New York.

Wall Street Journal:
- Oil Goes to the Bears. Just weeks ago the fragile commodities markets could be sparked ahead by a mere hint of bad news. That market psychology has reversed, with Monday's action showing that even war can't halt oil's current retreat. Inside the commodity-trading pits and brokerage houses, the conversation isn't whether prices are pulling back in the near term, but how far and for how long.

MarketWatch.com:
- How low can you go? Some gold timers still haven’t thrown in the towel, which is a bad sign for gold bugs.
- Amazon’s(AMZN) Kindle could be next iPod, analyst says. Citigroup doubles sales target for e-reader, predicting strong holiday demand.

CNNMoney.com:
- One month after its debut, Apple's new iPhone has hit the 3 million sold mark, according to analyst Michael Cote of the Cote Collaborative. "They are seeing unprecedented demand," says Cote, adding that there appears to be no signs of a let up yet. Cote, a former T-Mobile executive, has been extremely accurate with wireless predictions in the past. The 3 million figure is much higher than Wall Street analysts had anticipated. Forecasts called for total quarterly sales of three million to four million.
- The shorts are back. Effective Wednesday, naked short selling is fair game once again in the banking sector. Some experts have argued that the SEC needs to bring back the so-called uptick rule, which prohibits an investors from shorting a stock except when its price is moving higher to prevent massive selloffs, or "bear raids," on a stock. Last year, the rule was repealed. Any changes, however, would also likely meet with much resistance from Wall Street as well as the hedge fund community, which relies on short selling, in part, to help produce the outsized returns they have become famous for. Last month, the Managed Funds Association and the Coalition of Private Investment Companies, which represent hedge funds and other asset managers, warned the SEC that any permanent changes would not only limit legitimate short selling but also give an inaccurate representation of the real price of a stock.
- Steve Jobs: 60 million iPhone apps downloaded.

- As China makes big moves to break into the first world, US companies that manufacture there face soaring costs in a region that used to be the home of cheap, outsourced production. Here’s why prices have jumped – and how 4 small companies are being crunched.
- Gas price decline: Day 25. Gas falls to $3.81/gallon.
- Demand for high-level job talent is surprisingly robust, especially for senior managers who are willing to move.

USA Today.com:
- Study: Health costs seen rising, but smallest growth in years.

Reuters:
- Short interest rose sharply in shares of banks not included in the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's emergency rule to curb abusive short-selling.
- Billionaire investor Carl Icahn reported on Monday that he owns a 6.03 percent stake in the common stock of biotechnology company Biogen Idec Inc (BIIB). Icahn said in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that he increased his stake "in the belief that the shares were undervalued." He said his funds may acquire additional Biogen shares, debt or other equity.
- Singapore Telecommunications, Southeast Asia's largest telecoms firm, will launch Apple Inc's (AAPL) third-generation iPhone in Singapore on Aug 22, the company said on Tuesday.


Financial Times:
- JPMorgan Chase(JPM) provided evidence of more turbulence in financial markets, warning that stormy credit conditions had forced it to take a $1.5bn writedown on mortgage-backed assets in July.
- Institutional investors expect another big financial firm will collapse within the next six months in the continued fallout from the credit crunch, new research has shown. Nearly 60 per cent of US and European institutional investors surveyed by Greenwich Associates believe there will be such a failure within the next six months. Another 15 per cent think it will happen in six-12 months. Nearly 80 per cent of institutions said banks had tightened margins or collateral requirements in the last year.

- The fighting between Russia and Georgia over the separatist enclave of South Ossetia appeared to ignite in a sequence of improvised if macho moves, fuelled by overblown rhetoric on both sides, overbidding by Tbilisi and overreaction by Moscow. But Russia - in this conflict manifestly led by the prime minister Vladimir Putin rather than Dmitry Medvedev, his successor as president - needs to consider very carefully where its wholly disproportionate action is going to leave Russia's standing in the world.

The Independent:
- In what could be the biggest ever payday for a public company executive, Fortress Investment Group(FIG), the hedge fund manager which floated in New York last year, has given one of its star traders more than $300 million to stay at the firm. Wall Street is agog at the revelation that Adam Levinson, 38, who runs one of the main funds for Fortress, has been handed a giant slug of new shares in the firm, giving him a stake of up to 7 per cent and diluting the power of existing shareholders. The award comes despite disappointing returns from his global macro fund so far this year, one of the hardest on record for the hedge fund industry. It also comes as Fortress shares languish at their all-time lows, having lost more than two-thirds of their value since they began trading in February 2007.

China Times:
- Taiwan’s consumption of energy for transportation purposes fell by a record 3.7% in the first half of the year, citing Bureau of Energy Deputy Director General Wang Yunn-ming. Individuals and government agencies have taken steps to save energy because of surging oil costs.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:

- Reiterated Buy on (TWTC), target $20.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.50% to +25% on average.
S&P 500 futures -.10%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.04%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Movers
Top 25 Stories

Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (EBIX) 3-for-1
- (TWI) 5-for-4

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

- The Trade Deficit for June is estimated to widen to -$62.0 billion versus -$59.8 billion in May.

2:00 pm EST
- The Monthly Budget Deficit for July is estimated to widen to -$90.0 billion versus -$36.4 billion in June.

Other Potential Market Movers
- The (FEIC) investor meeting, (SIG) investor day, weekly retail sales reports, IDB/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, UBS Engineering & Construction Conference, EnerCom Oil & Gas Conference, CSFB Tech Communications Conference, CanaccordAdams Growth Conference and Keefe Bruyette Woods Bank Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are slightly lower, weighed down by commodity shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.