Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Global Growth Worries, Financial Sector Angst

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower into the final hour on losses in my Alternative Energy longs, Retail longs, Computer longs and Medical longs. I added (QQQQ)/(IWM) hedges and added to my (EEM) short today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, every sector is declining and volume is very light. Investor anxiety is above average. Today’s overall market action is bearish. The VIX is rising 10.7% and is still above-average at 20.82. The ISE Sentiment Index is below average at 127.0 and the total put/call is above average at 1.08. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running very high most of the day, hitting 1.95 at its peak, and is currently 1.68. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is falling .17% today to 86.83 basis points. This index is up from a low of 52.66 on May 5^th, but down from 129.46 basis points on March 20^th. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is unch. at 141.65 basis points. The TED spread is rising 1.8% to 1.14 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is falling 3 basis points to 2.15%, which is down 48 basis points in about six weeks. The Russian RTS Index fell another 3.2% today, making a new 52-week low, and is now down 34.0% in less than three months. I still see further meaningful downside is those shares. Despite another spike in US financial sector worries and the recent bounce in oil, the US dollar continues to trade well and further upside in the currency is likely over the coming weeks after a period of consolidation. I am seeing a number of signs that much of today’s stock selling is forced, likely as a result of last week’s whipsaw action in commodities. Once again, volume remains very light on today’s sell-off, with a very high ARMs reading. This indicates that it won’t take much to lift stocks once the selling subsides. There were several companies that saw meaningful corporate insider buys last week. Here are a few: CINF, WPC, BBT, STI, MI, NGLS, AFG, GAP, CPN and ABMD. Piper Jaffray is saying today that NPD data suggest that Apple sold 11 million iPod units versus street estimates of 10.8 million. As well, they believe Apple sold 2.9 million Macs versus street estimates of 2.65 million. I still think Apple is consolidating before another large move higher into year-end. Nikkei futures indicate a -208 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate a -19 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering and bargain-hunting.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Gold fell $7.5/ounce on speculation that last week's rally was overdone. The metal has dropped 20 percent from a record $1,033.90 an ounce in March, partly because the US dollar has rebounded against the euro. Investment in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange- traded fund backed by bullion, fell 1.2 percent last week to 651.4 tons. The fund reached a record 705.9 tons on July 11. The historical volatility of gold, or the rate at which a price moves up and down, was 26 percent in the past month, compared with 16 percent over the same period a year earlier.
- Wheat fell 1.9% on speculation rain in the southern U.S. Great Plains will help build soil moisture for plants that will be seeded starting next month. Wheat has plunged 35 percent from a record $13.495 a bushel on Feb. 27 on forecasts for increased global production. World inventories are expected to jump 18 percent to 136.2 million tons by May 31.
- Asian currencies declined, led by South Korea's won, on speculation overseas investors will cut holdings of local shares, adding to demand for dollars. The won fell the most in almost three months to reach its lowest since November 2004 after Finance Minister Kang Man Soo said Aug. 22 that South Korea's inflation rate is likely to remain high even after oil's decline.
- Thailand's economic growth slowed more than expected in the second quarter, increasing the likelihood the central bank will soon stop raising interest rates. Growth may ease further in the second half as protests and court cases against Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej's six-month-old government erode consumer confidence.
- Petroleo Brasileiro SA(PBR), Brazil's state-controlled oil company, fell the most in a week in Sao Paulo trading after Itau Corretora said the government is likely to raise taxes on existing oil concessions in the so-called pre- salt fields once production begins.

NY Times:
- Mr. Obama has received overwhelming support from black voters, many of whom believe he will help bridge the nation’s racial divide. But even as they cheer him on, some black scholars, bloggers and others who closely follow the race worry that Mr. Obama’s historic achievements might make it harder to rally support for policies intended to combat racial discrimination, racial inequities and urban poverty. As part of his urban policy plan, Mr. Obama promises to increase the minimum wage, expand affordable housing, provide full financing for community block grants and create a White House office of urban affairs.

CNBC.com:
- Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, the private-equity firm run by Henry Kravis, has "expressed a high level of interest" in buying Lehman Brothers’(LEH) crown jewel, the Neuberger & Berman money management firm, people close to the negotiations said.
- Intel(INTC) Sees Strong 2008 – And No Slowdown.
- Chip makers are convinced of the potential for motion sensing chips in portable gadgets, thanks to the success of Nintendo's Wii game consoles and Apple's iPhones. The market for micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMS) devices, which detect motion using acceleration sensors, could reach $7.3 billion this year and $11 billion by 2011, Taiwan chip maker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) has said, quoting independent research.

LA Times:
- Gold-market bulls couldn’t buy publicity much better than this: The U.S. Mint says it has run out of one-ounce American Eagle gold coins amid rocketing demand. The Mint told coin dealers a week ago that its inventories of one-ounce Eagles had been temporarily depleted because of "unprecedented demand." Small investors apparently saw the price drop as a great chance to buy -- which is the opposite of what normally happens, said Ken Edwards, a partner at California Numismatic Investments in Inglewood.

Politico:
- Tensions boil between Obama-Clinton camp. As Democrats arrived here Sunday for a convention intended to promote party unity, mistrust and resentments continued to boil among top associates of presumptive nominee Barack Obama and his defeated rival, Hillary Rodham Clinton. Some senior Obama supporters are irritated at how they perceive the Clintons fanned — or at a minimum failed to douse — stories that she was not even vetted as a possible vice presidential nominee.

Seattlepi.com:
- Amazon(AMZN) is working on a new version of the Kindle, and sees a big opportunity to market its e-book reader to college students, McAdams Wright Ragen analyst Tim Bueneman said Friday in an e-mailed note based on meetings with management.

AppleInsider:
- Digg creator Kevin Rose says he knows many details of Apple's iPod revisions for September, including what appears to be a photo of the fourth-generation iPod nano and a teaser for information of iTunes 8.0.

Reuters:
- Apple (AAPL) expects to sell 3.5 million iPhones in Russia in the next two years, according to market sources familiar with new deals being struck by Russian carriers. Up to 600,000 iPhones have already flooded into Russia through unauthorized sales but now at least two carriers have signed an official framework agreement with the manufacturer and one more deal is expected next week, according to analysts and market sources.
- The International Monetary Fund has trimmed its forecasts for 2008 and 2009 world economic growth, largely due to a marked worsening in the outlook for the euro zone, a G20 finance official told Reuters on Monday.

El Pais:
- More than half of Spain’s real estate agents have closed since the start of the year as a property slump hits demand for homes. Of 3,001 agent branches representing the top 10 real estate sales franchises open at the end of last year, only 1,434 are still in business, citing Tormo & Assoc., a consulting firm.

El Mundo:
- Fuel sales at the pumps of Spanish service stations fell in July by 15%, the fastest pace since 1993 as consumers reined in spending and limited holiday trips.

Gestion:
- Rio Tinto Group’s(RTP) Peruvian copper mine may start producing in 2014. Rio Tinto’s La Granja mine, which will cost $3 billion to develop, will start producing 300,000 tons of copper a year, citing the CEO of the company’s copper division. The company is studying an expansion of the mine’s capacity to 500,000 tons a year.

The Economic Times:
- DUBAI: OPEC is likely to keep oil output policy unchanged at its meeting in September as prices remain high despite a sharp fall from July's peak, an OPEC source said on Monday. OPEC members wanted to see prices that prevent long-term demand erosion and encourage global economic growth, the source said, declining to define an ideal price. Venezuela and Iran are among the OPEC members in need of the highest prices and have been the first to publicly call for the group to trim output if the market keeps falling. U.S. demand fell 800,000 barrels per day (bpd) on the year in the first half of 2008, the steepest fall in 26 years.

Times of Zambia:
- Zambia may increase wheat production by 25% this year, citing Millers Assoc. of Zambia Vice Chairman Peter Cottan. The Southern African nation now expects to produce 200,000 tons of wheat in the year through October, up from 160,000 tons last year. The increased production is due to good weather conditions and a reliable supply of electricity for irrigation.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

Small-cap Value -2.24%

Sector Underperformers:

Coal irlind (-4.81%), Steel (-3.92%) and HMOs (-3.52%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

HWAY, APWR, R and HGR

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) ATVI 2) GE 3) CHL 4) LTD 5) BCSI

Exisiting Home Sales Rise More Than Estimates

- Existing Home Sales for July rose to 5.0M versus estimates of 4.91M and 4.85M in June.

BOTTOM LINE: Sales of previously owned homes in the US rose in July more than economists had expected, Bloomberg reported. The median price drooped 7.1% from July 2007 to $212,400. July’s sale rate was the highest since February. There were 11.2 month’s supply of unsold existing homes and condos on the market at the current sales pace in July. The rise in inventory was led by an increase in the supply of condos as buildings started one or two years ago came on the market, the Realtors group said. Purchases increased in three of four regions, led by a 9.7% jump in the West. Sales fell .5% in the South. The BankRate.com average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is currently 6.36%, down 15 basis points from 6.51% in July. Home sales have likely bottomed and should continue to improve modestly over the intermediate-term. As foreclosures diminish, inventories should fall meaningfully next year.

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

Large-cap Value (-1.01%)

Sector Outperformers:

Airlines (+.29%), Drugs (-.59%) and Computer Services (-.65%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

FRO, FEED, KNSY, AMLN, AFAM, TISI, KNM, TMB and TTC

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) ATVI 2) ESLR 3) AEO 4) BCSI 5) NLY

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