Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The U.S. East Coast faces the coldest night of the season as frigid air spills south and threatens agriculture in Georgia, Alabama and the orange crop in Florida. Freeze warnings were posted by the National Weather Service as far south as the Orlando area, which may be as many as 20 degrees below normal tonight, the National Weather Service said. The advisory alerts growers that subfreezing temperatures are imminent and may kill crops or other sensitive vegetation. Tampa and others cities in the central part of the state are under a freeze warning from 1 a.m. to 9 a.m. local time tomorrow. Temperatures may fall below 32 degrees Fahrenheit (zero Celsius) for more than three consecutive hours, the National Weather Service in Tampa said on its Web site. “This is a pretty significant cold snap,” Matt Keefe, a meteorologist with AccuWeather.com Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania, said in a telephone interview. The next freeze may come next week when another wintry blast may push temperatures as much as 20 degrees below normal for the central Plains through northwestern Florida, Reppert said. From Houston across to Atlanta could be 20 degrees colder than normal by the morning of Jan. 8, he said.
Wall Street Journal:
- The suicide bomber who killed eight Americans, including seven CIA officers, this week might have been able to get through multiple layers of security at the U.S. compound aided by an Afghan informant with the agency, a Western official said Friday. If this is true, it suggests insurgents had turned the tables on the CIA and been able to place their own agents close to the facility the CIA used to cultivate informants. On Wednesday, CIA officials had invited the attacker onto the base with the hopes of recruiting him as an informant. They used an Afghan intermediary to arrange the meeting. The attacker arrived, wearing an Afghan army uniform, officials said.
The assault shows a strategy the insurgency has increasingly employed here in recent months: using the uniforms and vehicles of the Afghan army and police to carry out attacks.
- Chinese companies banned from doing business in the U.S. for allegedly selling missile technology to Iran continue to do a brisk trade with American companies, according to an analysis of shipping records. A unit of state-owned China Precision Machinery Import-Export Corp., for example, has made nearly 300 illegal shipments to U.S. firms since a ban was imposed on CPMIEC and its affiliates in mid-2006, according to an analysis of shipping records by the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control, a nonprofit proliferation watchdog. A Wall Street Journal review of the records and interviews with officials at some of the American companies indicate that the U.S. firms likely were unaware they were doing business with banned entities, and in many cases were tripped up by altered company names.
- Exxon Mobil Corp.'s(XOM) $31 billion purchase of XTO Energy Inc. is seen as a big endorsement of the future value of natural gas. But many gas producers aren't so optimistic. After years of volatile gas prices, and last year's dismal performance, dozens of small gas companies are expanding into crude oil, taking the opposite tack of Exxon, which last month agreed to buy XTO.
- The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission finalized rules on Thursday that will raise capital standards for commodity brokers and require firms to incorporate over-the-counter derivatives positions into their risk-based capital calculations. Under the new rules, published in the Federal Register, futures commission merchants will have to raise their adjusted net capital from a minimum of $250,000 to $1 million. Adjusted net capital requirements for introducing brokers, meanwhile, will increase from $30,000 to $45,000. Introducing brokers can take orders to buy or sell futures, but don't hold customer funds. In addition, the rules will also stiffen margin requirements for commodity-brokerage firms trading on their own accounts, forcing them to raise the percentage used to calculate so-called maintenance margin requirements from 4% to 8%. That puts the requirement on par with the amount customers are required to maintain.
- Iranian media reported Tehran would conduct a large-scale defensive military exercise next month, coinciding with what Tehran officials now say is a deadline for the West to respond to its counter-offer to a nuclear-fuel deal. The commander of Iran's ground forces, Brig. Gen. Ahmad-Reza Pourdastan, said the drill would be conducted by Iran's army, in conjunction with some units of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in order to improve "defensive capabilities," Press TV, the English-language, state-run media outlet reported Sunday.
- Happy New Year, readers, but before we get on with the debates of 2010, there's still some ugly 2009 business to report: To wit, the Treasury's Christmas Eve taxpayer massacre lifting the $400 billion cap on potential losses for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as well as the limits on what the failed companies can borrow. The Treasury is hoping no one notices, and no wonder. Taxpayers are continuing to buy senior preferred stock in the two firms to cover their growing losses—a combined $111 billion so far. When Treasury first bailed them out in September 2008, Congress put a $200 billion limit ($100 billion each) on federal assistance. Last year, the Treasury raised the potential commitment to $400 billion. Now the limit on taxpayer exposure is, well, who knows?
Barron’s:
MarketWatch.com:
CNBC.com:
- Phones, PCs to Drive Tech Rally Into 2010.
Business Insider:
NY Times:
- Along with Wall Street’s resurgent bonuses will come a jump in an ancillary benefit: tax breaks. For all banks and Wall Street firms, “I’m sure we’re talking $200 billion total compensation, which would create a tax savings for the firms of $80 billion,” said Robert Willens, an accounting and tax analyst in New York who runs a consulting firm, Robert Willens LLC. Many American banks already pay minuscule federal income taxes, because of various deductions and clever tax planning; the payout-related breaks will reduce their tax bills further in coming years. The biggest tax break will go to Goldman Sachs(GS). It expects to award its employees $23 billion in bonuses — the most in its history — after having paid back $10 billion. Because most employee compensation is a deductible expense under tax laws, Goldman Sachs, which is technically taxed at a top corporate rate of 39 percent, will save about $9 billion in federal income taxes on the bonuses it pays out for 2009, Mr. Willens said.
- With the Jan. 2 deadline for applications fast approaching, the dean of admissions at the University of Chicago sent out a sample essay last week to thousands of high school seniors in hopes “that it lightens your mood, reduces any end-of-the-year stress and inspires your creative juices in completing your applications.” But the essay, comparing the college to an elusive lover, has had a very different effect. “Dear University of Chicago, It fills me up with that gooey sap you feel late at night when I think about things that are really special to me about you,” the essay began. “Tell me, was I just one in a line of many? Was I just another supple ‘applicant’ to you, looking for a place to live, looking for someone to teach me the ways of the world?” In the 10 days since the dean’s e-mail message went out, more than 100 postings appeared on College Confidential, a popular Web site for those applying to college, some questioning his decision to send out the essay.
- What is a Bailed-Out Banker Really Worth?
NY Post:
CNNMoney.com:
- Companies Google(GOOG) should buy in 2010.
Business Week:
- Trial Lawyers Sidestep Malpractice Curbs. Senate health reform bill shows how trial lawyers' lobbying helped end drive for damage award caps.
- The U.S. Commodities Futures Trading Commission, criticized for its alleged failure to curb 2008's historic runup in oil prices, will soon propose caps on how much any single investor can hold in a set of commodity futures, says an official. In an e-mail answering questions from Bloomberg BusinessWeek, Bart Chilton, one of the CFTC's five commissioners, says the commission will soon propose a rule aimed at preventing any one entity from "controlling too much of a given market."
Washington Post:
- The United States and China are headed for a rough patch in the early months of the new year as the White House appears set to sell a package of weapons to Taiwan and as President Obama plans to meet the Dalai Lama, U.S. officials and analysts said. The Obama administration is expected to approve the sale of several billion dollars in Black Hawk helicopters and anti-missile batteries to Taiwan early this year, possibly accompanied by a plan gauging design and manufacturing capacity for diesel-powered submarines for the island, which China claims as its territory. The president is also preparing to meet the spiritual leader of Tibet, who is considered a separatist by Beijing. Obama made headlines last year when the White House, in an effort to generate goodwill from China, declined to meet the Dalai Lama, marking the first time in more than a decade that a U.S. president did not meet the religious leader during his occasional visits to Washington.
Houston Chronicle:
TheStreet.com:
Politico:
Rasmussen Reports:
LA Times:
Slate:
- America's economic recovery will be twice as big as experts predict.
Engadget:
- Exclusive: Google(GOOG) Nexus One hands-on, video, and first impressions.
zerohedge:
Reuters:
- Somalia's hardline Islamist rebel group al Shabaab said on Friday it was ready to send reinforcements to al Qaeda in Yemen should the U.S. carry out retaliatory strikes, and urged other Muslims to follow suit. Yemen-based al Qaeda groups have come under intense scrutiny since the Nigerian who tried to explode a bomb aboard a Detroit-bound Christmas Day flight from Amsterdam was linked to the country. Yemeni and American officials are reported to have mulled targets for retaliatory strikes against such groups inside Yemen. "We call upon all Muslims to give a hand to our brothers in Yemen and we, al Shabaab, are ready to send them reinforcements ... and Inshallah we shall win over America," said Sheikh Mukhtar Robow Abuu Mansuur, a senior al Shabaab official.
Financial Times:
- Britain is in danger of succumbing to a budgetary crisis this year, with the economy likely to stay in the doldrums until at least the end of 2010, a Financial Times survey of economists warns. Asked to name the three biggest risks to the economy, 37 of the 79 economists polled said the UK was threatened by a fiscal crisis that could derail any revival.
Telegraph:
- Britain facing one of the coldest winters in 100 years, experts predict. Britain is bracing itself for one of the coldest winters for a century with temperatures hitting minus 16 degrees Celsius, forecasters have warned. They predicted no let up in the freezing snap until at least mid-January, with snow, ice and severe frosts dominating. And the likelihood is that the second half of the month will be even colder. Weather patterns were more like those in the late 1970s, experts said, while Met Office figures released on Monday are expected to show that the country is experiencing the coldest winter for up to 25 years. The cold weather comes despite the Met Office’s long range forecast, published, in October, of a mild winter. That followed it’s earlier inaccurate prediction of a “barbecue summer”, which then saw heavy rainfall and the wettest July for almost 100 years. Paul Michaelwaite, forecaster for NetWeather.tv, said: “It is looking like this winter could be in the top 20 cold winters in the last 100 years. “It’s going to be very cold the for the next 10 days and although there could be a milder spell at some stage the indications are that the second half of the month will be even colder.”
Seoul Economic Daily:
- Samsung Electronics Co., Hynix Semiconductor Inc. and LG Display Co. of South Korea plan to boost combined capital expenditure this year by about 32% from 2009 to more than 14.3 trillion won.
Yonhap News:
Aljazeera.net:
- Mir Hossein Mousavi, the Iranian opposition leader, has called for an immediate end to the government crackdown on opposition activists, saying he was ready to die in defence of people's rights. In a statement on his Kaleme website on Friday, Mousavi also said that the Islamic Republic was in "serious crisis" following the disputed presidential election in June. "I am not afraid to die for people's demands ... Iran is in serious crisis ... Harsh remarks ... will create internal uprising ... the election law should be changed ... political prisoners should be freed," his statement added. He accused the government of making more mistakes by resorting to "violence and killings" to quell the protests over the poll outcome, that saw Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the incumbent president, re-elected for another term. "Arresting or killing Mousavi, [another opposition leader Mehdi] Karoubi ... will not calm the situation," Mousavi, who lost the election, said in the statement. Mousavi also demanded that the government "take responsibility for the problems it has created in the country... and recognise people's right to lawful assembly". "I say openly that until there is an acknowledgement of the existence of a serious crisis in the country, there will be no possibility of resolving the problems and issues."
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (AAPL), (GOOG), (CRM), (RVBD), (CVX), (LPS) and (AMGN).
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (ESRX), raised target to $112.
- Our high level investment thesis into 2010 is that we expect money to rotate into healthcare stocks after federal healthcare reform efforts conclude(by March), and Managed Care in particular has been under-owned by large mutual funds. We maintain a positive rating on all 9 covered Managed Care stocks that we expect will continue to rebound in 2010 from historic low valuations in 2009. Buy (AET), our top pick in Managed Care, followed by (WLP). Upgrade (UNH) to Buy from Hold, target $39.
- Reiterated Buy on (MHS), raised target to $77.
- Reiterated Buy on (MRK), raised target to $45.
Night Trading
Asian indices are -.25% to +1.0% on avg.
S&P 500 futures +.44%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.58%.
Morning Preview
BNO Breaking Global News of Note
Yahoo Most Popular Biz Stories
MarketWatch Pre-market Commentary
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Futures
IBD New America
Economic Preview/Calendar
Earnings Calendar
Who’s Speaking?
Upgrades/Downgrades
Politico Headlines
Rasmussen Reports Polling
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- None of note
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- The ISM Manufacturing Index for December is estimated to rise to 54.0 versus 53.6 in November.
- The ISM Prices Paid for December is estimated to rise to 58.8 versus 55.0 in November.
- Construction Spending for November is estimated to fall -.5% versus unch. in October.
Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed's Lockhart speaking and the Fed's Duke speaking could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and automaker stocks in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.