Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Profit-Taking, North/South Korea Worries, China Bubble/Trade Concerns, Tax Hike Fears

Broad Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Lower
  
• Sector Performance: Most Declining
  
• Volume: About Average
  
• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• VIX 18.18 -1.20%
  
• ISE Sentiment Index 111.0 -.89%
  
• Total Put/Call .90 +5.88%
  
• NYSE Arms .67 -28.86%
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 86.53 bps +.30%
  
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 74.0 bps -4.43%
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 76.25 bps +1.22%
  
• Emerging Market CDS Index 233.69 bps +2.31%
  
• 2-Year Swap Spread 14.0 bps +2.0 bps
  
• TED Spread 16.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .13% unch.
  
• Yield Curve 279.0 bps unch.
  
• Copper Days Demand n/a
  
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index +36.30 -4.5 points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24% 2 bps
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -41 open in Japan
• DAX Futures: Indicating +3 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my Retail and Tech long positions
  
• Disclosed Trades: None
  
• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is mildly bearish as stocks reverse morning gains again despite a bounce in the euro and lower long-term rates. On the positive side, Gold, Steel and Gaming stocks are especially strong, rising +1.0%+. Cyclicals are slightly outperforming today. The Spain sovereign cds is falling -4.2%. On the negative side, Education, HMO, Disk Drive and Software shares are under meaningful pressure, falling more than 1%. Gauges of investor angst are relatively muted again today. (XLF) had been outperforming earlier in the day, but has moved to session lows and is now in line with the market. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has so far failed to take out its January 15th high and may be forming a double top. While I still expect to see further US stock weakness near-term, I am surprised in the bears inability to gain meaningful traction over the last two days, given the news. As well, certain key stocks continue to trade very well. I expect US stocks to trade modestly lower into the close from current levels on profit-taking, tax hike fears, technical selling and China bubble/trade concerns.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• AT&T(T) Sees First-Quarter $1 Billion Charge on Health Care Reform. AT&T said it will take a $1 billion first-quarter charge related to the passage of the U.S. health care legislation.
• Trichet's Diplomacy 'Mask' Slips as EU Turns to IMF. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet is struggling to disguise his unease about the International Monetary Fund’s role in any Greek bailout.Trichet said late yesterday he’s “extraordinarily happy” that governments have agreed on a Greek rescue plan, which includes funding from the Washington-based IMF. Just hours earlier, he dismissed the notion of giving any power to the IMF as “very, very bad.” “He let his mask of diplomacy slip briefly last night but he then pretty rapidly put it back on,” said Jacques Cailloux, chief European economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London. “He is not as happy as he claims and his earlier IMF comments show that he was disappointed and sidelined.”
  
• Global oil demand growth will peak in the next 10 years, Saudi Arabian oil adviser Ibrahim Muhanna said in a speech published in the Middle East Economic Survey. Oil consumption will not rise further after reaching between 95 million and 100 million barrels a day at some point before the end of the decade, Muhanna said. Oil prices are expected to remain between $70-$90 a barrel during that period, he said. Demand will continue to decline in the OECD as the world's most industrialized countries increase fuel efficiency and use of renewable energy increases, according to Muhanna, who advises Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi.
• Markets 'Not Pricing' Potential Risks, Artradis Says. Stock, currency and bond investors are underestimating the risk that government efforts worldwide to stabilize markets may fail, according to a hedge-fund manager at Artradis Fund Management Pte. Instruments that thrive on volatility, such as options, are “attractive,” said David Dredge, a managing director at Singapore-based Artradis, which manages $1.4 billion of funds that place wagers on price swings. “Markets are not pricing potential risks very aggressively,” Dredge said in an interview yesterday. “The price for risk once again is very, very cheap.”
• Dubai Credit Spreads Are 'Unattractive,' Morgan Stanley Says. Investors should “unwind” exposure to Dubai government debt because the restructuring plan proposed for state-owned Dubai World won’t do enough to reduce the emirate’s debt burden, Morgan Stanley said. “At current levels the risk/reward profile of Dubai sovereign spreads looks unattractive, and we advise investors to close their exposure to the credit,” Morgan Stanley’s London- based strategist Paolo Batori wrote in a research report dated today.
• The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for commodities, extended its worst losing streak this year as rates for vessels that can haul iron ore continue to be depressed by price talks involving China's steelmakers. The index tracking transport costs on international trade routes had a ninth straight drop, shedding 79 points, or 2.5%, to 3,098 points today, according to the Baltic Exchange. The gauge has fallen 13% during its current run.
• Greenspan Calls Treasury Yields 'Canary in the Mine'. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the recent rise in Treasury yields represents a “canary in the mine” that may signal further gains in interest rates. Higher yields reflect investor concerns over “this huge overhang of federal debt which we have never seen before,” Greenspan said in an interview today on Bloomberg Television. “I’m very much concerned about the fiscal situation,” said Greenspan, 84, who headed the central bank from 1987 to 2006. An increase in long-term interest rates “will make the housing recovery very difficult to implement and put a dampening on capital investment as well.” The U.S. budget deficit reached a record $1.4 trillion for the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30 amid falling tax revenue from the recession, a bailout of the banking and auto industries, and the $787 billion economic stimulus package. “I don’t like American politics and what’s happening,” Greenspan said. Historically, there has been “a large buffer between the level of our federal debt and our capacity to borrow,” he said. “That’s narrowing. And I’m finding it very difficult to look into the future and not worry about that.”
• Negative Swap Spreads Indicative of Treasury Glut, Bianco Says. The decline in rates to exchange fixed- for floating-rate obligations below comparable maturity Treasury yields indicates demand may be waning for government debt amid record sales, according to Bianco Research LLC. The U.S.’s marketable debt has risen to an unprecedented $7.4 trillion to fund a budget deficit the government predicts will swell to $1.6 trillion in the fiscal year ending Sept. 30.
• Lead Open Interest, at 15-Month High, May Signal Lower Prices. Lead futures outstanding, or open interest, rose to a 15-month high on the London Metal Exchange, suggesting investors may expect prices to extend their worst start to a year since at least 1987. The metal for delivery in three months fell 13 percent this year on the LME as open interest advanced 23 percent to 122,920 contracts, the most since December 2008, bourse data show. Rising open interest combined with declining prices suggests new short positions, or bets on lower prices, being taken, said Dan Smith, an analyst at Standard Chartered Plc in London. Stockpiles in warehouses monitored by the LME have almost tripled in a year as output surpassed demand, reaching their highest since July 2003. Lead production outpaced demand by more than 200,000 tons last year and the surplus is expected to be at least as high this year, according to Brook Hunt, a Wood Mackenzie company.
• Recess Raises Specter of Obama Labor Move to Business Groups. U.S. business groups and Republican lawmakers are stepping up efforts to ward off a labor appointment by President Barack Obama that might trigger a surge in union organizing efforts. Obama may appoint union lawyer Craig Becker to the National Labor Relations Board after Congress leaves this week for a scheduled Easter recess, a step that would circumvent the need for Senate confirmation. Labor Secretary Hilda Solis told the AFL-CIO, the largest U.S. union organization, in a speech March 3 that it “will be very pleased” by what Obama was planning. Becker would be the second Democrat and third member of the five-seat board, providing a quorum to clear a backlog of more than 210 cases. Among them are disputes with casino owner MGM Mirage and auto-parts maker Dana Holding Corp. The Democratic majority may adopt policies helping unions to recruit while limiting employers, according to the National Association of Manufacturers. “You will see a radical overhaul of the labor law system,” said Keith Smith, director of employment and labor policy at the Washington-based industry group. “You could see significant limits on employers’ ability to communicate.” Labor unions spent a record $450 million to help elect Democrats to the White House and Congress in 2008. Becker failed to win Senate confirmation to a five-year term last month after two Democrats joined Republicans to block his nomination. Obama could now appoint Becker to serve through 2011, or until the end of the next session of Congress.
• China to Begin Stock Index Futures Trades on April 16. China will begin trading of stock- index futures on April 16, bolstering an equities market that has been the world’s third-worst performer this year. The first contracts to trade will be for May, June, September and December, according to a statement today by the China Financial Futures Exchange. Investors must pay cash deposits equivalent to 15 percent of the contract value for May and June contracts and 18 percent for longer-term contracts.
• Unemployment Climbs in 27 States, Falls in Seven. Unemployment increased in 27 U.S. states in February and dropped in seven, a sign the labor market needs to pick up across more regions to spur consumer spending and sustain the economic recovery. Mississippi showed the biggest jump in joblessness with a 0.4 percentage point rise to 11.4 percent, according to figures issued today by the Labor Department in Washington. Nationally, unemployment held at 9.7 percent in February for a second month and employers cut fewer jobs than anticipated, figures from the Labor Department showed on March 5. Today’s report indicates broad-based hiring is yet to develop following the loss of 8.4 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007. Florida, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina set record levels of joblessness last month.
• Brazil Stocks Becoming 'Bubble,' UBS's Cremoux Says. Brazil’s stock market is forming a “bubble” and may suffer a “correction” next year as valuations soar, according to Gerard Cremoux, co-head of Latin America investment banking at UBS AG. The increase in companies issuing shares shows that Brazil’s stock market is becoming overvalued, Cremoux said. “Brazil looks like a bubble,” Cremoux said at Columbia University in New York. “The market expects a lot of activity in Brazil this year. We might see the biggest equity offering ever. You can become a bit skeptical.” Brazil’s economy is at risk of “overheating” and the country’s currency is “overvalued,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategist Ben Laidler said at the same conference.

Wall Street Journal:

• Calpers Deals Part of Probe by Justice Into Pay-Play. Federal criminal investigators are looking into possible wrongdoing involving investment transactions of public pension funds including Calpers, according to people familiar with the matter. Justice Department investigators in Los Angeles have been looking at whether potentially illegal payments were made to influence decisions on where to invest public pension-fund money, these people said. Among the matters being examined, they said, are investments made by the California Public Employees' Retirement System, the nation's biggest public pension fund by assets.
• Steelmakers Plead Case to Representatives. The chief executive officers of the biggest U.S. steelmakers warned Thursday that proposed limits on carbon emissions and underspending on infrastructure and energy markets could derail the industry's nascent recovery. At a meeting with Steel Caucus members of the U.S. House of Representatives, steel producers stepped up their lobbying efforts to ward off climate-control and energy legislation they say would add hundreds of millions of dollars in costs and lead to job losses.
• Fed Official Backs Asset Sales Before Rate Rises. The Federal Reserve should consider selling some of its portfolio of mortgage-backed securities even before raising official interest rates in order to make monetary policy more effective, the president of the Philadelphia Fed said Friday. In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Charles Plosser said the Fed needs to shrink its balance sheet in order to make future changes to its main policy tools, the federal funds and discount rates, more effective.
• Allawi Bloc Wins Iraq Elections, in Upset.
• Restaurants See Signs of Spring. Customers are coming back, suppliers have lowered prices and it's the best wild mushroom season in years.

CNBC:

• Greek Deal Does More Harm Than Good: Jim Rogers.
• Mobile Video Explosion: More News, Sports and Entertainment "On the Go".
  

NY Post:

• Radioshack(RSH) Search. Retailer Exploring Sale and Share Buyback Options. RadioShack is looking to shack up with a deep-pocketed investor. The Texas-based electronics chain is exploring strategic alternatives including a possible sale of the company that could fetch more than $3 billion, sources told The Post.
• InVentiv(VTIV) Calls Upon Goldman for Held. InVentiv Health, a New Jersey-based pharmaceutical service provider, is quietly seeking a buyer. The company, whose shares and debt total $813 million, is using Goldman Sachs to conduct an auction, and is starting to have management meetings with suitors, a source told The Post.

Business Insider:

• New York Times Staffers Furious Over The Huge Raise Executives Gave Themselves. Some New York Times Co. (NYT) staffers are boiling about their top executives' huge $12 million payouts in 2009. Chairman Arthur Sulzberger Jr.'s compensation more than doubled in 2009, to nearly $6 million. President and CEO Janet Robinson also boosted her earnings by 32%, to $6.3 million. During the same year, the New York newsroom lost 100 staffers to buyouts and layoffs, along with pay and benefit cuts at sister publications.
  

Charlotte Observer:

• Carolinas' Unemployment at Record Rates. North Carolina’s unemployment rate nudged to a new high in February as more than 11,000 workers started searching for work even as thousands of jobs were cut, the state’s Employment Security Commission reported today. North Carolina’s unemployment rate rose to 11.2 percent last month, up a notch from 11.1 percent in January. February’s jobless rate is the highest since states started their current calculation method in 1976. It’s been 13 months since the state’s jobless rate first edged above its previous high. South Carolina’s jobless rate was unchanged in February as the number of unemployed in the state shrank for the time in more than two years. The unemployment rate was 12.5 percent in South Carolina last month, same as the revised 12.5 reading from January, the S.C. Employment Security Commission reported today.

Miami Herald:

• On The Brink? Miami is Warned of New Budget Crisis. If City Manager Carlos Migoya's projections prove accurate, Miami could be on the verge of declaring a fiscal emergency -- triggering a law requiring the city to notify the governor it's in financial jeopardy, the city attorney warned Thursday. The dire news from City Attorney Julie Bru came near the end of a lengthy discussion on the city's reeling budget and projections showing the numbers may not soon improve. Miami commissioners voted unanimously Thursday to use $53.6 million of the city's reserves to finally balance its 2009 books. At the same time, they were told 2010 is already more than $28 million in the red, and that lawsuits against the city could raise that number. The bottom line: A reserve that overflowed with more than $141 million earlier this decade now sits at $39 million and could nearly empty by year's end.

Politico:

• 2,000 House Staffers Make Six Figures. Nearly 2,000 House of Representative staffers pulled down six-figure salaries in 2009, including 43 staffers who earned the maximum $172,500 — or more than three times the median U.S. household income.
  

Real Clear Politics:

• The VAT Cometh. As the night follows the day, the VAT cometh. With the passage of Obamacare, creating a vast new middle-class entitlement, a national sales tax of the kind near-universal in Europe is inevitable. We are now $8 trillion in debt. The Congressional Budget Office projects that another $12 trillion will be added over the next decade. Obamacare, when stripped of its budgetary gimmicks -- the unfunded $200 billion-plus doctor fix, the double counting of Medicare cuts, the 10-6 sleight-of-hand (counting 10 years of revenue and only 6 years of outflows) -- is at minimum a $2 trillion new entitlement.

Sydney Morning Herald:

• South Korean Navy Ship Sinks Near Border With North. A South Korean navy ship with 104 people on board sank near the North Korean border Friday after an unexplained explosion, military officials said, and a news report said several sailors were killed. South Korea's government called an emergency security meeting but a presidential spokeswoman said it was still unclear whether the sinking resulted from a clash with North Korea.

China Daily:

• Sino-US Tensions Show No Sign of Easing. There are no clear signals of an easing in trade and political tensions in Sino-US relations despite the hope generated by the visits of two Chinese vice-ministers to Washington. He asked Washington not to blame others for its own problems, "otherwise, the outcome would just be the opposite". Huo Jianguo, dean of the Trade Research Institute affiliated to the Ministry of Commerce, urged Washington to tread cautiously. "The US government should be sober-minded on the issue of labeling China a currency manipulator. It should not be carried away by domestic political pressure," he said.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
Small-Cap Growth (-.55%)

Sector Underperformers:
Disk Drives (-1.60%), Software (-1.30%) and HMOs (-1.30%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
PNFP, MED, ASBC, ALNY, SNCR, TECD, PBR, COP, ATAC, HURN, TRIT, DWA, ORCL, VITC, STX, PRGS, NTCT, PWRD, ATHN, VECO, HAWK, CTRP, INFA, SCHL, SHPGY, PVG, SNX and BTM

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
1) NOV 2) VIP 3) OSG 4) DNR 5) EP

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
Large-Cap Value (+.74%)

Sector Outperformers:
Gaming (+2.14%), Airlines (+2.11%) and Alternative Energy (+1.83%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
LNC, GNW, DB, CLF, TIE, SNP, TIBX, SRX, WBD, VTIV, FINL, FRED, GENZ, RECN, RYAAY, OVTI, SANM, FSLR, RTI, FHN, SLM, GGC and APL

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
1) ATHR 2) OVTI 3) BONT 4) EAT 5) COH

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:

• Trichet Welcomes Greek Pact, Reversing Earlier IMF Criticism. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet welcomed a European Union agreement on an aid plan for Greece, toning down his earlier criticism that the International Monetary Fund was involved in the package. “It was a complex situation,” Trichet told reporters in Brussels late yesterday. “I am extraordinarily happy that the governments of the euro area found out a workable solution.” Earlier, he said that an IMF role in the funding of a rescue framework for Greece would be “very, very bad.” Trichet is concerned that turning to the IMF to help Greece cope with the EU’s largest budget deficit would show that Europe can’t fix its own problems and earlier this month dismissed such a move as “inappropriate.” The EU has struggled to produce an in-house rescue plan for Greece, contributing to the euro’s 12 percent slide against the dollar since November. Before the decision was reached, Trichet told France’s Public Senat television that “if the IMF or any other authority exercises any responsibility instead of the euro group, instead of the governments, this would clearly be very, very bad.” EU President Herman Van Rompuy said that the “lion’s share” of funding for Greece would come from the EU, with the rest from the IMF.
  
• Bullard Says Fed Must Start Planning Now for Future Asset Sales. The Federal Reserve must start making plans now for asset sales to meet its goal of returning a record $2.32 trillion balance sheet to its pre-crisis size and makeup, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said. “We want to someday get back to a pre-crisis balance sheet -- both the size of it and the fact that it would be an all- Treasuries balance sheet,” Bullard said today in a telephone interview. “There does seem to be agreement that you want to get back to a normal-looking balance sheet at some point in the future.”
• U.S. Said to Widen Homeowner Aid, Subsidize Mortgage Reductions. The Obama administration plans to announce programs to help homeowners avoid foreclosure, including subsidies for borrowers who owe more than their home is worth. The plan, to be unveiled tomorrow, would expand Treasury Department and Federal Housing Administration programs and use funds from the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program, according to two administration officials. Foreclosures are expected to climb to 4.5 million this year from 2.8 million in 2009, according to RealtyTrac Inc., an Irvine, California-based research firm. The administration of President Barack Obama and banks including Wells Fargo & Co. and Bank of America Corp. have so far fallen short of meeting goals of the government’s foreclosure-prevention program, according to a report by Neil Barofsky, the TARP special inspector general. “As long as the administration continues to sidestep the larger issues such as job creation and how they intend to deal with Fannie and Freddie, subsequent misadventures into the mortgage market will continue to be an exercise in futility,” said Representative Darrell Issa of California.
• Man Group Said to Talk With SAC, GLG in Search for U.S. Deals. Man Group Plc, the biggest publicly traded hedge-fund manager, is scouting investments, acquisitions and distribution deals in the U.S. and has spoken with firms including SAC Capital Advisors LLP and GLG Partners Inc., according to two people with knowledge of the discussions.
• Half of U.S. Home Loan Modifications Default Again. More than half of U.S. borrowers who received loan modifications on delinquent mortgages defaulted again after nine months, according to a federal report. The re-default rate of loans modified in the first quarter of 2009 was 51.5 percent by the end of the year, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision said in a joint report today. The figure, which measures payments at least 30 days late, climbed to 57.9 percent for changes made in the prior 12 months. U.S. homeowners are struggling to make payments as depressed housing prices leave them owing more than their properties are worth. About 24 percent of properties with a mortgage were underwater in the fourth quarter, First American CoreLogic said last month. The median price of a U.S. home was $165,100 in February, down 28 percent from its peak in July 2006, according to the National Association of Realtors. Modifications are “clearly not working well and it’s not a surprise,” said Sam Khater, a senior economist at First American CoreLogic in Tysons Corner, Virginia. “It’s pointless to rewrite these loans because they’re underwater.”
• JPMorgan(JPM), Lehman, UBS(UBS) Named as Conspirators in Muni Bid-Rigging. JPMorgan Chase & Co., Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and UBS AG were among more than a dozen Wall Street firms involved in a conspiracy to pay below-market interest rates to U.S. state and local governments on investments, according to documents filed in a U.S. Justice Department criminal antitrust case. A government list of previously unidentified “co- conspirators” contains more than two dozen bankers at firms also including Bank of America Corp., Bear Stearns Cos., Societe Generale, two of General Electric Co.’s financial businesses and Salomon Smith Barney, the former unit of Citigroup Inc., according to documents filed in U.S. District Court in Manhattan on March 24.
• Swap Spreads Stay Negative as Investors Focus on Sovereign Risk. The decline of U.S. interest rate swap spreads to the lowest levels on record reflects a shift in investor focus from the plight of financial institutions to the ability of nations to finance rising fiscal deficits. The rate to exchange floating- for fixed-interest payments for 10 years this week fell below the comparable-maturity Treasury yield for the first time on March 23. The swap spread reached as low as negative 10.19 basis points today before reaching negative 7.63 basis points. “Sovereign debt worries have replaced the banking crisis as the main worry for investors,” said Moorad Choudhry, an economics professor at London Metropolitan University and the author of “Structured Credit Products: Credit Derivatives and Synthetic Securitization.” “Even though the main focus isn’t U.S. sovereign debt worries, the U.S. budget deficit is an issue and it is going to be growing as the recently signed health-care bill will add to it.”
• Debt-Burdened Dubai May Need Years to Rebuild Creditors' Trust. Dubai may be seeing light at the end of the tunnel after markets welcomed its offer to repay around $25 billion in debt by 2018. The recovery still risks taking years as the sheikhdom rebuilds creditors’ trust.
• 'Green Fund' for Climate Change Proposed by IMF Staff. A “Green Fund” designed to help nations meet climate-change pledges would sell bonds in global markets and use the proceeds to help poor countries deal with the effects of global warming, International Monetary Fund staff proposed in a report. The report released today expands upon an idea mentioned by IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn earlier this month as a way to raise $100 billion a year by 2020. The plan offers a mechanism for rich nations to honor their agreement from last year’s Copenhagen climate summit to provide that amount of money to developing countries to confront drought, flooding, food shortages and disease exacerbated by global warming. Governments could inject reserve assets in the fund, including those disbursed by the IMF last year, it said. The IMF staff plan also calls for wealthy nations to provide separate subsidies to help finance grants, according to the report. Raising $1 trillion in bonds over 30 years would require an equity endowment of about $120 billion, the report said. On top of injecting assets in the Green Fund’s capital, rich countries would need to provide money from their budgets to finance grants. Anticipating it may be hard at first, the IMF report suggested the fund could run “deficits” initially. Countries that contributed to the capital could also forgo dividends temporarily. Another option is for the international community to seek an early agreement on carbon pricing and to dedicate a portion of the proceeds to the Green Fund.
• FSA Insider Probe Said to Focus on Block Trade Front-Running. Britain’s financial regulator is examining whether some of the seven people arrested in an insider-trading probe engaged in the front-running of block trades, a person with direct knowledge of the case said.
• China's Credit-Card Curbs Said to Be Weighed by U.S. Visa Inc.(V), American Express Co.(AXP) and MasterCard Inc.(MA) have talked with U.S. trade officials about taking action against China for shutting the companies out of its $723 billion payment-processing market, people briefed on the issue said. The U.S. Trade Representative’s Office has discussed a possible complaint at the World Trade Organization with lawyers for the three companies, as well as Discover Financial Services and First Data Corp., said the people, who declined to be identified because the U.S. hasn’t announced a complaint. The case highlights rising tensions between the world’s largest and third-biggest economies, adding to disputes ranging from currency policy to import duties to Internet censorship.

Wall Street Journal:

• Personal Income Drops Across the Country. Personal income in 42 states fell in 2009, the Commerce Department said Thursday. Nevada's 4.8% plunge was the steepest, as construction and tourism industries took a beating. Also hit hard: Wyoming, where incomes fell 3.9%.
• Juarez Violence Puts Factories on Defensive. U.S. companies flocked to the border city of Juárez because it was one of Mexico's most business-friendly cities. Now, an entire industry is adjusting to doing business in Mexico's deadliest town.
• TV Chief Critical of Chavez Is Arrested. Intelligence agents arrested the president of Venezuela's only remaining independent television station on Thursday, leading to concerns that freedom of speech is ending in this oil-rich nation.
• The Government Pay Boom. America's most privileged class are public union workers. It turns out there really is growing inequality in America. It's the 45% premium in pay and benefits that government workers receive over the poor saps who create wealth in the private economy. And the gap is growing. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), from 1998 to 2008 public employee compensation grew by 28.6%, compared with 19.3% for private workers. In the recession year of 2009, with almost no inflation and record budget deficits, more than half the states awarded pay raises to their employees. Even as deficits in state capitals widen and are forcing cuts in services, few politicians are willing to eliminate these pay inequities that enrich the few who wield political power.

BusinessWeek.com:

• ICBC's $161 Billion Jump in Loans Drives Jiang to Boost Capital. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. Chairman Jiang Jianqing moved to bolster capital after expanding lending by $161 billion last year, almost equivalent to the gross domestic product of the Philippines. ICBC, the world’s largest bank by market value, will sell as much as 25 billion yuan ($3.7 billion) of convertible bonds and will seek shareholder approval to issue stock equivalent of up to 20 percent of equity capital in Hong Kong, according to a statement yesterday from the Beijing-based company. The fundraising plan comes even after ICBC defended its position as the world’s most profitable bank in 2009 and capital stayed above the regulatory minimum. Additional money will serve as a buffer should regulators further tighten capital rules. Citigroup Inc. economists said this week China may be on track for an “asset boom, bubble and bust.” “This is surprising given that ICBC is in a strong financial position to support its growth for the next few years,” said Sheng Nan, a Shanghai-based analyst at UOB-Kayhian Investment Co. “It may be preparing for a rainy day when the regulator imposes even tougher rules on capital.”
• Closing for Business? Western companies are finding themselves shut out as Beijing promotes homegrown rivals. Not so long ago in China, Western business executives traveling to the provinces could expect a hearty welcome and a banquet with endless toasts of maotai liquor. In February, however, representatives of General Electric (GE) and a dozen other U.S. companies got a taste of the way commercial relations have been changing. They were in Wuhan, a city of 9 million on the Yangtze River, for a seminar on water-treatment technology organized by the U.S. embassy. At a dinner after the meeting they were supposed to have a chance to mingle with top local officials. But at the last minute, Wuhan's mayor canceled his keynote speech and backed out of the gathering. That same day the provincial party secretary and governor begged off a separate event for American Ambassador Jon M. Huntsman Jr. One attendee, who won't be quoted by name, speculates that the Wuhan officials were responding to direct orders from the central government in Beijing not to meet the Americans.

CNBC:

• Oracle(ORCL) Reports Improved Earnings, but Shares Slip.

Fox News:

• Steve Forbes: Could a Chavez-Style Media Crackdown Be Coming Our Way?

IBD:

• Makeover Puts Cosmetics Superstores On Growth Path. Since late last year, Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance(ULTA) has been making its own contribution to the genre. In a series of TV spots, a makeup artist shows how to use Ulta's cosmetics to create a face for whatever mood you're in — flirty, sophisticated or punk.

NY Times:

• S.E.C. Reviews Derivative Use by Some Funds. The Securities and Exchange Commission announced Thursday that it was reviewing the use of swaps and other derivatives by mutual funds, exchange-traded funds and other investment products that are often marketed to individual investors, Edward Wyatt of The New York Times reports.
• Shelby Criticizes Reform Bill, Saying It Won't End 'Too Big to Fail' Problem. The Democratic bill to overhaul the nation’s financial system would not end the “too big to fail” phenomenon or adequately protect taxpayers from having to bail out large companies, a leading Republican senator said on Thursday.

Business Insider:

• Surprise! Bond Auction 'Fails' A Week Before The Fed Ends Its $1.2 Trillion Quantitative Easing. I was so busy writing about the collapse of the yen yesterday that I didn't have a chance to comment on the nearly failed Treasury auction. The government offered for sale $42 billion five year bonds which came in at a surprisingly high yield of 2.605%, with a bid to cover ratio at an uncomfortably high 2.55.
  

zerohedge:

• Whistleblower Exposes JPMorgan's(JPM) Silver Manipulation Scheme.
• Here Come Higher Taxes: Goldman(GS) On Imminent Tax Increases.
  

L.A. Times:

• Chinese Firm Buys Marriott in Downtown L.A. Shenzhen New World Group Co. buys the 469-room hotel out of foreclosure for an estimated $60 million, about half of what it sold for in 2007. Shenzhen plans to invest $13 million in upgrades.

Appaloosa Management:

• Appaloosa Management L.P. Letter to Investors.

Politico:

• Eric Cantor: Republicans Threatened, Too. House Minority Whip Eric Cantor blamed top Democrats for “fanning the flames” regarding threats to members of Congress — and says his office in Richmond was shot at earlier this week. Cantor, a Virginia Republican, said the heads of the Democratic National Committee and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee are using allegations of harassment and threats to Democrats nationwide for political purposes. Cantor said he doesn’t release information about the incidents of threats against himself to the media because it would only ratchet up violence. But he did say a bullet shot through the window in his campaign office in Richmond on Monday evening, and he has received threats because he is Jewish.

Real Clear Politics:

• Bond Markets Reflect the True Cost of Obamacare. Not many people noticed amid the Democrats' struggle to jam their health care bill through the House, but in recent weeks U.S. Treasury bonds have lost their status as the world's safest investment. The numbers are pretty clear. In February, Bloomberg News reports, Berkshire Hathaway sold two-year bonds with an interest rate lower than that on two-year Treasuries. A company run by a 79-year-old investor is a better credit risk, the markets are telling us, than the U.S. government.

AP:

• North Korea Vows 'Nuclear Strikes' in Latest Threat. North Korea's military warned South Korea and the United States on Friday of "unprecedented nuclear strikes" over a report the two countries plan to prepare for possible instability in the totalitarian country. The North routinely issues such warnings and officials in Seoul and Washington react calmly. Diplomats in South Korea and the U.S. instead have repeatedly called on Pyongyang to return to international negotiations aimed at ending its nuclear programs. "Those who seek to bring down the system in the (North), whether they play a main role or a passive role, will fall victim to the unprecedented nuclear strikes of the invincible army," North Korea's military said in comments carried by the official Korean Central News Agency. The North, believed have enough weaponized plutonium for at least half a dozen atomic bombs, conducted its second atomic test last year, drawing tighter U.N. sanctions.

Reuters:

• Companies' Cheap Funding Unlikely to Last - Moody's. A shift in investor risk perception has given Europe's high-grade corporate borrowers a unique, albeit limited, chance to borrow more cheaply than banks and governments in the bond market, Moody's said on Friday.
• Philadelphia Seeks Ban on Natgas-Drilling Method. Philadelphia officials asked a state regulator on Thursday to ban the natural-gas drilling technique known as hydraulic fracturing until its environmental effects, especially on drinking water, are studied.
• FACTBOX - Key elements of euro zone rescue deal for Greece.
• House Bill Extends U.S. Ethanol Tax Breaks to 2016.
  

Financial Times:

• A Euro Exit is the Only Way Out for Greece. Greece faces the threat of state bankruptcy. No longer is there any illusion that membership of Europe’s economic and monetary union provides protection from harsh realities. Since it entered the euro area in 2001, Greece has sacrificed competitiveness and amassed enormous trade deficits. Theoretically, to make up the economic ground lost in less than a decade, the Greeks would need to devalue by 40 per cent. But in a monetary union, that is impossible. There is no shortage of proposals to help the Greeks, including assistance from other eurozone governments – a move that would contravene the “no bail-out” rule enshrined in the treaty setting up monetary union. There is, sadly, only one way to escape this vicious circle. The Greeks will have to leave the euro, recreate the drachma and re-enter the still-existing exchange rate mechanism of the European Monetary System, the so-called ERM-II, which they departed in 2001.
• Pressure Rises for Formal Bank Fees Inquiry. Political pressure for a formal inquiry into investment banking fees mounted on Thursday as Lord Myners, City minister, said there was clear evidence of restricted competition in the market. “Certain aspects of investment banking in equity underwriting exhibit features of a semi-oligopolistic market,” Lord Myners told the Financial Times. His comments come less than a week after the Office of Fair Trading revealed it was looking at the fees charged by investment banks to decide whether to launch a formal probe.

Telegraph:

• Budget 2010: Interest Bill on UK Government Debt Set to Soar. More than 10p in every pound of tax Britons pay will within four years go straight on the Government's ballooning debt interest bill, according to figures underlying the Budget calculations, it has emerged.
• Budget 2010: Little to Safeguard UK's AAA Rating. Bond vigilantes and rating agencies gave a frosty reception to the Budget, warning that Alistair Darling has done little to restore faith in UK finances or safeguard its AAA rating.

Age:

• China may resume a "managed float" of the yuan to allow the currency to gain modestly against the U.S. dollar, said Fan Gang, an adviser to the country's central bank, in an opinion piece published today. An abrupt revaluation would hurt the competitiveness of the nation's exporters, Fan Gang wrote.

China Securities Journal:

• China's central bank may "soon" raise its reserve ratio requirement for the third time this year to further drain liquidity, citing analysts. The central bank may raise the ratio to stem excess cash driven by increased foreign direct investment, a growing trade surplus and speculation about a stronger yuan.

Asahi:

• Toyota Motor Corp. will next month reduce its daily domestic production by 7% to 12,500 vehicles. The company expects sales to remain stagnant, the newspaper said.

Evening Recommendations
Citigroup:

• Reiterated Buy on (AMZN), target $180.
  
• Reiterated Buy on (QCOM), raised estimates, target $50.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 97.0 +1.0 basis point.
• S&P 500 futures +.08%
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.04%

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 AM EST

• Final 4Q GDP is estimated to rise +5.9% versus a prior estimate of a +5.9% gain.
• Final 4Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +1.7% versus a prior estimate of a +1.7% gain.
• Final 4Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise +.4% versus a prior estimate of a +.4% gain.
• Final 4Q Core PCE is estimated to rise +1.6% versus a prior estimate of a +1.6% increase.

9:55 AM EST

• Final March Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence is estimated to rise to 73.0 versus a prior estimate of 72.5.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The EU Summit, Fed's Warsh speaking, Fed's Bullard speaking, ECB's Papademos speaking, Fed's Tarullo speaking, (EAT) analyst meeting and the (HS) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and automaker shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing into Final Hour on Profit-Taking, Euro Worries, China Bubble/Trade Fears

Broad Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  
• Sector Performance: Mixed
  
• Volume: Above Average
  
• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• VIX 17.61 +.34%
  
• ISE Sentiment Index 115.0 -25.81%
  
• Total Put/Call .82 -10.87%
  
• NYSE Arms .95 +40.02%
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 86.27 bps -1.30%
  
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 78.33 bps +8.70%
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 75.32 bps -.12%
  
• Emerging Market CDS Index 228.27 bps +1.11%
  
• 2-Year Swap Spread 12.0 bps +1.0 bp
  
• TED Spread 16.0 +1.0 bp
  

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .13% unch.
  
• Yield Curve 279.0 bps +6 bps
  
• Copper Days Demand n/a
  
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index +40.80 +.1 point
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26% +1 bp
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +92 open in Japan
• DAX Futures: Indicating -8 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my Retail, Financial, Tech long positions and Commodity short positions
  
• Disclosed Trades: Added (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges, added to my (EEM) short
  
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is mildly bearish as stocks move to session lows with some sectors seeing notable weakness. On the positive side, Retail, REIT, Internet and Software stocks are especially strong, rising +1.0%+. The euro continues to trade very poorly and is weighing on commodity stocks. I suspect oil, which has mostly ignored euro weakness, will trade lower over the coming days as large speculators cut their recently increased long exposure to the commodity. On the negative side, Disk Drive, Computer, Steel, Oil Service, Energy, Oil Tanker, Coal and Paper shares are under meaningful pressure, falling more than 1%. Gauges of investor angst are relatively muted again today. The euro financial sector cds is seeing a meaningful surge today, which is always a large negative. The Shanghai Composite fell -1.23% last night despite gains in most of the rest of Asia and is very close to another technical breakdown. Given recent stock gains and developing headwinds, I wouldn't be surprised to see short-term traders continue to take profits to protect performance into quarter-end. I expect US stocks to trade modestly lower into the close from current levels on profit-taking, euro worries, rising long-term rates, tax hike fears, technical selling and China bubble/trade concerns.