Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 

• U.S. House Passes Budget Bill. The 257-167 bipartisan vote breaks a yearlong impasse over how to head off $600 billion in tax increases and spending cuts set to begin taking effect today. The Senate passed the bill early this morning, 89-8, and it goes to President Barack Obama for his signature. The measure isn’t the grand bargain on deficit reduction lawmakers wanted when they created the tax-and-spending deadlines over the past three years. While it averts most of the immediate pain, it is only a small step toward controlling the federal deficit -- an issue that will return with a February fight over raising the $16.4 trillion debt limit.

• EU Power to Extend Slump in 2013 on Weak Demand: Energy Markets. The slump in European power that has driven prices to record lows is showing no sigh of ending as the region's second recession in four years curbs energy use. Electricity for the next year in Germany, Europe's biggest economy, will probably fall 9.2% in 2013, extending its 17% decline last year, according to Credit Suisse Group AG. Power demand in Germany will drop 2% this year, the same amount as in 2012, Bank of America Corp. said.

• Japan’s Population Falls by Record in 2012 as Births Decrease. Japan’s population last year declined by 212,000, the biggest drop on record, according to an estimate by the nation’s health ministry. That’s the largest reduction since the ministry started recording the data in 1947 and a sixth straight year of declines. The number of births fell by 18,000 to a record low of 1.03 million last year, the ministry said.

Wall Street Journal:

• Analysis: 77% of Households to See Tax Increase. The fiscal cliff bill’s impact would be far-reaching for American taxpayers, and particularly painful for very high-income households, according to a new analysis. About 77% of American households would see a tax increase compared to their 2012 tax levels, according to the analysis by the Tax Policy Center, a joint venture of the Brookings Institution and the Urban Institute. The biggest impact for most households comes from the expiration of a two-percentage-point payroll-tax break that existed for 2011 and 2012. It basically hits all working people.

• GOP Conservatives Blast Terms of Deal. Majority Leader Cantor Joins Back Benchers in Decrying Lack of Spending Cuts in Bill Passed Earlier by the Senate. The episode served as another reminder of just how tempestuous Mr. Boehner's House majority has become. 

• Obama's Tax Bill Comes Due. The headlines say the Senate has passed a bill to avoid the tax cliff, hallelujah. This is the way to look at it if you have a pre-Copernican view of politics where Washington is the center of the economic universe. The better way to see it is that the tax bill on the private, productive part of the economy is now coming due for President Obama's first-term spending and re-election. 

• David Malpass: Nothing Is Certain Except More Debt and Taxes. The Senate fiscal-cliff bill still means higher taxes on every working American. So much for just going after 'the rich.'

• Fiscal Cliff: Live Stream.

• Chinese Fly Cash West, by the Suitcase. Amid a rush of newly affluent Chinese eager to move money out of China, U.S. and Canadian border officials are seizing large amounts of cash tucked into wallets, purses and suitcases at airports across North America. Officials at Canada's two busiest airports—Toronto and Vancouver—seized around 12.9 million Canadian dollars ($13.0 million) in undeclared cash from Chinese nationals from April 2011 through early June 2012, according to documents provided to The Wall Street Journal by the Canada Border Services Agency. The money, most of it returned to the owners, represented 59% of all cash seized at the airports in the period, according to the data. In the U.S., Chinese citizens are the top source of airport cash seizures after Americans.

• Companies Prepare for Health Law. With Much of the U.S. Overhaul to Take Effect in a Year, Companies Weigh Employee-Benefit Options. Certain employers could see health-related costs go up as a result of the law's requirements, and they are weighing how to respond. One possibility would be to opt out of providing health coverage altogether, as employees will have new coverage options outside the workplace—for the employer, the penalties are lower than the typical cost of insurance.

• Banks Near Foreclosure Settlement. Lenders and Regulators Working Toward $10 Billion Pact After Concerns Raised Over Review Process.

Zero Hedge:

• On The New Definition Of "Rich", A $620 Billion Tax Hike Offset By $15 Billion In Spending Cuts, And Much More.

• Meanwhile, America's Other "Cliff" Remains Untouched. (graph)

• Will The Next Bear Market Be A Planned Event Or A Failure Of Central Planning?

Business Insider:

• Ladies And Gentlemen: Here's The Date Of Your Next Fiscal Cliff. The other half of the Fiscal Cliff, the sequester (the mandatory spending cuts agreed to in the debt ceiling fight) has only been delayed, giving DC more time to fight over it. That means we've already scheduled a new Fiscal Cliff, and the bill agreed to last night has the date: March 1, 2013 (exactly two months from today).

• Intel(INTC) Is Reportedly Going To Destroy The Cable Model By Offering People The Ability To Subscribe To Individual Channels.

• Iraq Is Officially Fighting In A 'Low-Level War' A Year After US Withdrawal.

• MAULDIN: Long-Term Economic Growth Has Downshifted, And It's A Game-Changer For Stocks.

NY Times:

• Investors Face Imminent Obstacles, With or Without a Fiscal Deal. Economists forecast that the Senate deal would reduce economic growth by as much as 1 percent in the first quarter of 2013.

• Tech Giants Brace for More Scrutiny From Regulators. Silicon Valley lobbied hard in Washington in 2012, and despite some friction with regulators, fared fairly well. In 2013, though, government scrutiny is likely to grow. And with this scrutiny will come even greater efforts by the tech industry to press its case in the nation’s capital and overseas.

Read more here: http://blogs.sacbee.com/capitolalertlatest/2012/08/fiscal-analyst-hundreds-of-millions-at-risk-from-facebook-slide.html#storylink=cpy

CNN:

• Hedge fund industry loses out again. Bearish hedge fund managers have lost out in 2012, with the $2tn industry suffering another year of disappointing returns as traders were wrongfooted by a change in fortunes for the eurozone. According to Hedge Fund Research, slight gains in December were likely to mean the average hedge fund manager made just more than 5 per cent over the year -- a period watched closely by many investors after disappointing returns in 2011, when the average hedge fund lost 5 per cent. Flows into the industry are also expected to have slowed markedly, hit by a wave of high-profile closures. The first 9 months of last year saw hedge funds pull in a net $30bn from investors, compared with $70bn in 2011.

ABC News:

• ‘Fiscal Cliff’ Deal Also Doles Out Millions for Hollywood, Railroads, Rum Producers.

naked capitalism:

• Eight Corporate Subsidies in the Fiscal Cliff Bill, From Goldman Sachs(GS) to Disney(DIS) to NASCAR. Throughout the months of November and December, a steady stream of corporate CEOs flowed in and out of the White House to discuss the impending fiscal cliff. Many of them, such as Lloyd Blankfein of Goldman Sachs, would then publicly come out and talk about how modest increases of tax rates on the wealthy were reasonable in order to deal with the deficit problem. What wasn’t mentioned is what these leaders wanted, which is what’s known as “tax extenders”, or roughly $205B of tax breaks for corporations.

Breitbart.com:

• Fiscal Cliff Deal: $1 in Spending Cuts for Every $41 in Tax Increases.

• Cliff Deal: Half of Tax Hikes Go to Boost Spending. As more details emerge about the Senate's hastily-passed deal to avert the "fiscal cliff", the scale of the GOP's capitulation grows more troubling. This morning, it looked as if the Senate GOP had overwhelmingly voted for a $620 Billion tax increase in exchange for almost no real spending cuts. That's bad enough, but an analysis by the Congressional Budget Office reveals that the deal actually contains $330 Billion in new spending over the next 10 years. More than half of the new tax revenue won't go to plugging the deficit, but increasing the size of government.

McClatchy:

• New Year means tax increases to pay for health care law. The tax man is coming in 2013. And he’s wearing surgical scrubs and has a stethoscope around his neck. Five new tax increases take effect on Jan. 1 to help pay for the nation’s health care overhaul.
  
  
  Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/12/31/178710/new-year-means-tax-increases-to.html#storylink=cpy
  
  Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/12/31/178710/new-year-means-tax-increases-to.html#storylink=cpy

The Blaze: 

• Stunning Graphic Shows Possible Reason The House GOP Is Balking At Senate’s Fiscal Cliff Bill. This graphic is worth much more than 1000 words.

Reuters:

• Senate's "fiscal cliff" bill adds $4 trillion to deficits: CBO. The Congressional Budget Office on Tuesday said Senate-passed legislation to avert the "fiscal cliff" would add nearly $4 trillion to federal deficits over a decade, largely because it would extend low tax rates for almost all Americans. The congressional scorekeeper's analysis was released as a number of Republicans in the House of Representatives voiced opposition to the bill, and considered amending it with deeper spending cuts. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor and others complained the bill's spending cuts would do little to curb trillion-dollar deficits.

Financial Times:

• US regulators – with long arms. Miscreants in far-flung corners of the globe dread the US military’s unmanned drones. European banks with US links, meanwhile, live in dread of Uncle Sam’s regulators.

• Small US fiscal cliff deal will deliver more subpar growth. The crucial thing about the $600bn-plus tax increases and spending cuts that were scheduled to come into force on January 1 is that the US economy was actually facing two cliffs, not one.

Telegraph:

• Europe to Intervene on U.K. Bank Accounting Rules. EU Commissioner Michel Barnier sanctions review of IFRS to start early this year, citing a letter from Barnier's cabinet to investors who demanded the inquiry.

• Goldman Sachs(GS) chief Lloyds Blankfein cashes in $4m of shares. Goldman Sachs chief executive Lloyd Blankfein and departing chief financial officer David Viniar both exercised restricted stock units on New Year's Eve that delivered them $4.2m in cash apiece.

• Japan plans 'nationalisation' of factories to save industry. Japan's government is to take the unprecedented step of buying factories and machinery directly with taxpayer funds, the latest in a series of radical steps to lift the country out of its deep slump. Premier Shenzo Abe is to spend up to one trillion yen (£7.1bn) buying plant in the electronics, equipment, and carbon fibre industries to force the pace of investment, according to Nikkei news. The disclosure came just a day after Mr Abe vowed to revive Japan's nuclear industry with a fresh generation of reactors, insisting that they would be "completely different" from the Fukishima Daiichi technology.

Guardian:

• The U.K. economy may stall with little or no growth in 2013, citing the Institute for Public Policy Research. The Institute says consumer and business morale has been dampened by talk of years of austerity and the crisis in the euro-region.

Bild:

• Economy Minister Philipp Roesler says German economic growth may slow further in 2013, citing an interview. "2013 won't be an easy year for our economy," he said.

Evening Recommendations 

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.25 +.75 basis point.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 85.75 -2.5 basis points.

• FTSE-100 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures n/a.

• NASDAQ 100 futures n/a.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• None of note

Economic Releases
8:58 am EST

• Final Markit US PMI for December is estimated to rise to 53.6 versus a prior estimate of 52.8.

10:00 am EST  

• Construction Spending for November is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +1.4% gain in October.

• ISM Manufacturing for December is estimated to rise to 50.4 versus a reading of 49.5 in November.

• ISM Prices Paid for December is estimated to fall to 50.8 versus 52.5 in November.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The US fiscal cliff negotiations, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, UK Manufacturing PMI and the weekly retail sales reports could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Fiscal Cliff Optimism, Window-Dressing, Short-Covering, Consumer Discretionary/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Light

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• VIX 18.45 -18.79%

• ISE Sentiment Index 123.0 -2.4%

• Total Put/Call 1.05 -.94%

• NYSE Arms .33 -84.77%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 94.36 -5.1%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 141.32 +.26%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 111.37 +.85%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 207.91 -1.23%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 13.75 -.5 bp

• TED Spread 26.5 -3.75 bps

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.75 +.5 bp

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% -1 bp

• Yield Curve 151.0 +6 bps

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $144.90/Metric Tonne +3.95%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 39.9 -7.8 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.45 +1 bp

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +119 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +6 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech, biotech, retail and medical sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 

• Possible U.S. Budget Deal Would Extend Tax Cuts. The White House and congressional negotiators agreed to contours of a budget deal including tax cut extensions, with the remaining sticking point being how to avert automatic federal spending cuts, said an official familiar with the talks. The official described the proposed framework as the White House announced President Barack Obama’s plans to deliver remarks at 1:30 p.m. Washington time on the status of the talks. Under the proposed deal, income tax cuts would be extended for annual income up to $450,000, the official said, with rates rising to 39.6 percent on income above that. Expanded unemployment insurance would be continued through 2013.
• Dollar Weakens as Reid Cites Deficit-Deal Optimism. The dollar fell against most of its biggest peers as Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said he’s hopeful a last-minute U.S. deficit-reduction deal will be reached to protect all but top earners from a tax increase. The yen weakened after Finance Minister Taro Aso told reporters at a Dec. 28 briefing that the U.S. should have a stronger dollar. The 17-nation euro fell against most of its 16 major peers as German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the region’s debt crisis was “far from over.” 
• U.S. Gasoline at Pump Averaged Record High in 2012, AAA Says. Motorists in the U.S. paid record high prices for gasoline in 2012, as severe weather and political tensions drove up the cost of fuel. The national average price of gasoline in 2012 was $3.60 a gallon, nine cents more than the previous annual record set last year, said Heathrow, Florida-based AAA, the nation’s largest motoring group.
• Gold Extends Longest Streak Since 1920 on Central-Bank Stimulus. Gold rose, poised for a 12th consecutive annual gain, as central banks from Europe to China pledge more steps to spur economic growth and U.S. lawmakers near a deadline for budget talks. Gold for immediate delivery added 0.3 percent to $1,661.38 an ounce by 12:44 p.m. in London, extending this year’s climb to 6.2 percent. Prices rebounded from a five-week slump as the deadline for the so-called U.S. fiscal cliff of automatic tax increases and spending cuts due to take effect tomorrow loomed with no accord in sight among lawmakers. Investors from John Paulson to George Soros have a $140.6 billion bet via near-record holdings in gold-backed exchange- traded products after the Federal Reserve said Dec. 12 it would buy $45 billion of Treasury securities a month as of January, adding to $40 billion a month of mortgage-debt purchases.
• Lumber Prices May Tumble 25% After Leading Commodities in 2012.
• Crude Futures Set for Annual Drop in New York. Oil headed for its first annual decline since 2008 in New York as U.S. lawmakers sought an agreement on averting automatic tax increases and spending cuts that threaten the economy of the world’s largest crude consumer. West Texas Intermediate fell as much as 0.9 percent, dropping for a third day. U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said there are “still significant differences” between Democrats and Republicans with one day remaining to avoid the budget measures known as the fiscal cliff. The volume for WTI contracts was down 56 percent on the 100-day average.
• LodgeNet(LNET) to File for Bankruptcy as Colony Capital Takes Control.
• Cal-Maine(CALM) fiscal 2nd quarter profit sinks 39 pct.
• ‘Grievous’ U.S. Mistake to Have Kept Open Libya Outpost. The State Department failed to fill a “security gap” at the U.S. mission in Benghazi before the Sept. 11 attack even though it knew the Libyan government was incapable of protecting the compound, a Senate report said today. The report by the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee said the State Department failed to meet staffing requests from its own security personnel and made the “grievous mistake” of not closing the Benghazi compound at least temporarily because of growing threats.

Wall Street Journal:

• Cliff's Edge Draws Close. Talks between Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) and Vice President Joe Biden continued through the night and into Monday morning, as Washington tried to do what it has promised for months: engineer an alternative to the so-called fiscal cliff.
• Fiscal Cliff: Live Stream.
• China Warns Local Governments on Financing. China has issued a fresh warning to its local governments to control risk and stop using unauthorized fundraising methods to pay for the building of infrastructure and other projects. The finance ministry, in a statement jointly issued with other government agencies and published on its website Monday, said there has been an increase of unauthorized funds by local governments and reiterated existing restrictions on the use of leasing, trust, and build-and-transfer arrangements to pay for public works. The statement—issued with the People's Bank of China, the China Banking Regulatory Commission and the top planning agency the National Development and Reform Commission—is the latest sign of mounting concern over local government debt, particularly as the property market remains sluggish. Local governments are heavily reliant on land sales for revenue, and slowing land sales may jeopardize their ability to repay loans.

CNBC:

• More Than 400 New Laws Take Effect Tuesday. In 2013 in Illinois, motorcyclists will be able to "proceed through a red light if the light fails to change." In Kentucky, releasing feral or wild hogs into the wild will be prohibited. And inFlorida, swamp buggies will not legally be considered motor vehicles. On Jan. 1, as crowds of people toast to a new year, more than 400 news laws across the country will take effect — and possibly improve life for some.

Zero Hedge:

• Chinese Think Tank: "Conflict With Japan Inevitable".

Business Insider:

• China's Newest And Deadly Warship Has Entered The South China Sea.
• Nomura's Negative Take On The Fiscal Cliff Situation.

CNN:

• Portugal braced for 'fiscal earthquake'. "A fiscal earthquake", "armed robbery", "tax napalm". Descriptions of the income tax increases facing Portuguese families from January 1 make the fiscal cliff looming in the US sound tame by comparison. Lisbon plans to lift income tax revenue by more than 30 per cent, raising the effective average rate by more than a third from 9.8 to 13.2 per cent. Anyone receiving more than the minimum wage of €485 a month, including pensioners, will also pay an extraordinary tax of 3.5 per cent on their income.

The Blaze: 

• This Prediction From the CBO Shows How Wrong They Were About The U.S.’ Economic Future.

Reuters:

• Japan PM Abe wants to replace landmark war apology - paper. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe wants to replace a landmark 1995 apology for suffering caused in Asia during World War Two with an unspecified "forward-looking statement", a newspaper reported on Monday. 
• Bombs kill 16 across Iraq as sectarian strife grows. Explosions killed at least 16 people and wounded 76 across Iraq on Monday, police said, underlining sectarian and ethnic divisions that threaten to further destabilise the country a year after U.S. troops left. 
• Economists see Brazil economy growing less than 1 pct in 2012. Economists cut their estimates for economic growth in Brazil to 0.98 percent this year, a central bank survey showed on Monday, highlighting the sharp slowdown of an economy that just a couple of years ago was an emerging market star. The world's No. 6 economy was expected to grow 1.0 percent this year in a poll released last week, a far cry from the 3.30 percent expansion predicted by economists surveyed by the central bank at the start of the year.

Telegraph:

• Greek retail sales slump as austerity-hit consumers rein in spending. Greek retail sales fell 18.1pc year-on-year in October, recording the steepest drop in almost two years, as the deep recession and record-high unemployment took a toll on consumer spending.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.39%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Education -.20% 2) Networking -.12% 3) Defense -.10%
  

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• SNFCA, CRZO, CRK, TRST, CALM, WPI, MGLN, CM and ESI

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) LYV 2) XLV 3) F 4) EMR 5) MMM
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SYK 2) MGM 3) ANR 4) CHK 5) FCX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.74%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +1.14% 2) Homebuilders +1.10% 3) Airlines +1.07%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• DUF, HLF and QIHU

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CAG 2) BSX 3) PPHM 4) WDAY 5) LMT
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) DTV 2) SSYS 3) CALM 4) NWSA 5) CLF

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines 
Bloomberg: 

• Budget Talks Stall Over Income, Estate Taxes. With little more than a day remaining to avert tax increases for almost every U.S. worker and to halt federal spending cuts, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell worked to bridge gaps over income tax rates, the estate tax and other issues. “There’s still significant differences between the two sides but negotiations continue,” Reid, a Nevada Democrat, said on the Senate floor today. The Senate will resume its session tomorrow at 11 a.m. Washington time and “perhaps” have further announcements then, he said. “I certainly hope so.” McConnell, a Kentucky Republican, reached out to Vice President Joe Biden in an effort to break the impasse.

• Merkel Calls for German Patience as Euro Crisis ‘Far From Over’. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the economic environment will be more difficult in 2013 than this year, and that Europe’s sovereign debt crisis is “far from over,” though progress has been made. “The reforms that we’ve agreed on are starting to take effect,” Merkel, who faces federal elections in September, said in a New Year’s television speech to the nation, sent today in advance by e-mail. “Nevertheless, we still need a lot of patience. The crisis is far from over.”

• French Court Says 75% Tax Rate on Rich Is Unconstitutional. President Francois Hollande’s 75 percent millionaire-tax is unconstitutional because it fails to guarantee taxpayer equality, France’s top court ruled today. The tax, one of Hollande’s campaign promises, had become a focal point of discontent among entrepreneurs and other wealth creators, some of whom have quit French shores as a result. The ruling comes as the president seeks to cut France’s public deficit to 3 percent of gross domestic product next year from a projected 4.5 percent this year. “Politically, this has an impact because it was a symbol for French public opinion, and was considered abroad as the emblem of French tax excess, of French tax hell,” said Dominique Barbet, senior economist at BNP Paribas SA in Paris. “In deficit terms, it’s truly negligible.”

• Spain’s Iberdrola Has Four Units Taken Over by Bolivian State. Bolivian army and police seized buildings occupied by Iberdrola SA (IBE) yesterday, hours after President Evo Morales ordered the nationalization of four business units owned by Spain’s largest utility. “We have been forced to make this decision as we want to have egalitarian electricity rates in rural and urban areas,” Morales said yesterday morning in a broadcast from the presidential palace.

• PBOC to Control Risks, Seek Appropriate Financing Growth. China’s central bank said it will focus on controlling risks in the financial system and will seek “stable and appropriate” growth in aggregate financing, a measure of funding that includes loans, stock and bond sales. The People’s Bank of China also said it will stick to a prudent monetary policy next year and try to stabilize growth, rebalance the economy and contain inflation. The four-paragraph statement released late Dec. 28 after a quarterly meeting of the monetary policy committee, mostly reiterated the stance set out at a government work conference earlier this month. The PBOC’s addition of “controlling risks” as a policy objective may signal growing concern that a surge in non-bank lending over the past two years will lead to defaults that could trigger social unrest. Regulators “may tighten control on the quality and quantity of credit supply, particularly through non-bank channels such as trust loans” in the first half of 2013, Zhang Zhiwei, chief China economist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Hong Kong, said in a note after the central bank report. A slowdown in credit growth would feed through to a moderation in economic expansion, he said. 

• BRIC Dominance Ebbs as State Meddling Means Equities Trail World. Stocks in the biggest developing markets are lagging behind global equities for a record third year as faster economic growth proves no lure for investors amid concerns over government interference in markets. The MSCI BRIC Index (MXBRIC) of shares in Brazil, Russia, India and China rose 11 percent this year, trailing the MSCI All-Country World Index by 1.6 percentage points. The trend will probably persist in 2013, according to John-Paul Smith, a Deutsche Bank AG strategist. Mutual funds that invest in BRIC nations have posted $1.65 billion of outflows as Brazilian politicians intervened to cut utility rates, China maintained control of its biggest companies and Russian businesses spent shareholder money on projects favored by the government. 

• Lumber Prices May Tumble 25% After Leading Commodities in 2012. Lumber futures may tumble as much as 25% from a seven-year high as output increases in Canada, the world's biggest exporter, according to Forest Economic Advisors LLC. The price may touch $300 per 1,000 board feet in 2013, Paul F. Jannke, a principal at the consulting company, said in a telephone interview. In mid-October, he correctly forecast the rally. "We're pretty close to the peak," Jannke said. "The initial spike tends to be the highest, then production ramps up. If the mills increase shifts from a 40-hour week to a 50-hour week, that's a big jump, and everybody is ratcheting up their work weeks." 

• Hedge Funds Cut Bullish Bets to Lowest Since June: Commodities. Hedge funds cut bullish commodity bets to a six-month low as mounting concern that slowing economic growth will erode demand drove prices toward the first fourth-quarter retreat since the global recession. Speculators reduced net-long positions across 18 U.S. futures and options by 11 percent to 675,625 million contracts in the week ended Dec. 24, the lowest since June 19, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Gold holdings reached a four-month low, while those for copper dropped for the first time in five weeks. Investors are the most bearish on natural gas since May.

• Russia Says No Chance of Convincing Assad to Quit. Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad told a top United Nations envoy this week that he won’t quit before his term ends in 2014, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. “It’s impossible to change his position,” Lavrov said at a joint press conference after talks in Moscow today with UN and Arab League special envoy to Syria, Lakhdar Brahimi, who met Assad in Damascus on Dec. 24.

• UN Envoy Warns of Syria ‘Hell’ as Beheaded Bodies Found. UN special envoy Lakhdar Brahimi warned yesterday that the war in Syria is spiraling into “hell” and giving rise to warlords. The Syrian army killed 143 people across the country yesterday, the opposition Local Coordination Committees said in an e-mailed statement. Fifty unidentified beheaded corpses with signs of torture were recovered behind Tishreen Military Hospital in Damascus, the group said. “The situation is bad and it’s getting worse,” Brahimi said in Cairo. “I can’t see anything other than these two paths: Either there will be a political solution that will meet the ambitions and legitimate rights of the Syrian people, or Syria will turn into hell.”

• Japan Detains Chinese Fishing Boat Amid Tensions Over Islands. Japan detained a Chinese fishing boat that entered its waters, bringing the captain and two of the vessel’s crew members in for questioning, China’s official Xinhua News Agency reported. The boat’s captain, Lin Shiqin, admitted his vessel entered Japanese waters, Xinhua reported. China sent a diplomat to visit the three crew members detained by the Japanese coast guard, Xinhua said, citing the Chinese Consulate General in Fukuoka. 

• Singapore Price Risks Persist as Economy Seen Entering Recession.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Parties Pivot to Blame Game in Cliff Saga. GOP Girds for Brunt of Ire, but Polls Suggest Fingers Will Also Point at Democrats; Obama Aides Recall Debt-Limit Clash.

• Unthinkable Cuts Almost a Reality. Mandatory federal spending cuts designed to be prohibitively drastic will become a reality on Wednesday if negotiators remain unable to reach an agreement to avert the reductions.

• Fiscal Cliff: Live Stream.

• France Seeks New Path to High Tax. The government of Socialist President François Hollande on Sunday said it would consider other ways of imposing a top income-tax rate of 75% on high-wealth individuals after the country's top constitutional authority scrapped the plan. The Constitutional Council's decision is a political blow to Mr. Hollande, who had vowed to shift to the rich the burden of efforts to improve the country's finances. "Humiliating," French weekly newspaper Le Journal du Dimanche said in a front-page banner headline Sunday. The council sanctioned Mr. Hollande's "fiscal bludgeoning," former Prime Minister François Fillon told French radio.

• Gauging the Guidance That Models Give the Fed. When the Federal Reserve said in December that it would keep short-term interest rates near zero until the unemployment rate falls to 6.5%, it was backed by a team of geeks who get little attention outside the central bank but a lot of attention inside. The geeks have names such as Ferbus, Edo and Sigma. They are computer-modeling programs the central bank uses to make predictions about how various policies and events will play out across the economy. In December, the Fed wanted to telegraph how long it would keep interest rates low. To do that it used forecasting models to map out different scenarios. Looking to the models for guidance, Fed officials decided to announce they would keep interest rates near zero until the unemployment rate drops to 6.5%. The models told them such a commitment would help nudge unemployment lower—it was 7.7% in November—and wouldn't risk a big burst of inflation. But here is the problem: The models are deeply flawed. They failed to foresee the financial crisis in 2008 and have tended to overestimate the strength of the economy for several years. Could they fail the Fed again? Of course, no model or human can perfectly predict the future. But the Fed models have a more specific problem. Despite all their complexity and sophistication, they have long been plagued by gaps in how they read and project the economy. One of the biggest is that they have ignored the nuances of the financial system—one of the primary channels through which Fed policy works.

• Flying Is Safest Since Dawn of Jet Age. Air travel is now the safest it has been since the dawn of jet planes, with the global airline industry set to mark its lowest rate of fatal accidents since the early 1960s. There have been 22 fatal crashes world-wide this year, a number that includes all passenger and cargo flights, down from 28 crashes in 2011, according to data assembled by the Aviation Safety Network, which compiles accident and incident information online. That crash count is down from a 10-year average of 34 fatal accidents per year. The figures were compiled before Saturday's crash of a Russian-built jet near Moscow, in which four people were killed when the plane careened off a runway and caught fire.

• Container Ships Bulk Up, and Slow Down. Grappling with excess container capacity and declining shipping fares, companies such as CMA CGM of France, owner of the Marco Polo, and A.P. Møller Maersk of Denmark are racing to operate the biggest-possible ships so they can benefit from economies of scale, and run them at moderate speeds to save on fuel costs.

• Pension Funds Call For Insider Curbs. A group of pension funds that oversee more than $3 trillion in assets asked U.S. securities regulators to revamp rules on how corporate executives can trade their company stock.

• Senate Report Widens Fault for Benghazi Failures. 

• Justice Department Hits Snags in Delivering on BofA(BAC) Deal. 

• How the 'Dairy Cliff' Will Cream Consumers. Got milk? Enjoy the price you paid, because federal policy, reaching its sell-by date, will have dire results.

Marketwatch.com:

• China stocks bear risk of capitulation in 2013. Commentary: China’s new leaders can expect short honeymoon. Many of the factors that plagued mainland Chinese stocks last year remain in the year ahead. China may have new faces in its leadership, but it faces the same old problems with its economy.

Fox News:

• Secretary Clinton in hospital with blood clot stemming from concussion.

CNBC:  

• If There's a 'Fiscal Cliff' Deal, It's Likely to Be Small. Whether negotiated in a rush before the new year or left for early January, the fiscal deal President Barack Obama and Congress cobble together will be far smaller than what they initially envisioned as an alternative to purposefully distasteful tax increases and spending cuts. Instead, their deal, if a deal they indeed cut, will put off some big decisions about tax and entitlement changes and leave other deadlines in place that will likely lead to similar moments of brinkmanship, some n just a matter of weeks.

Zero Hedge:

• The IMF On China's Over-Investment.

• Margin Debt Soars To 2008 Levels As Everyone Is "All In", Levered, And Selling Vol. (graph)

• Obama Grants Pay Increase For Members Of Congress, Federal Workers In Executive Order. 

• Stephen Roach On Why Abe's Aggression Won't Save Japan.

• The Keynesian Legacy Unravels. 

• The Fiscal Policy Q&A, Timeline, And Market Scenarios.

• China PMI Surges To 19-Month High - US (And Chinese) Equities Sigh.

Business Insider:

• The World Is Entering A 5-Year Period Of Abundant Oil.

• PIMCO's Bill Gross Just Tweeted His Dismal 2013 Outlook. 

• Things That Might Happen In 2013. 

• Tonight We Saw Why It's Basically Impossible To Cut Entitlements.

• Even Die-Hard BlackBerry Fans Don't Like The New Keyboard Phone.

Wall Street All-Stars:

• Indicator Update: Beyond the Cliff.

New York Times: 

• Settlement Expected on Past Abuses in Home Loans. Banking regulators are close to a $10 billion settlement with 14 banks that would end the government’s efforts to hold lenders responsible for foreclosure abuses like faulty paperwork and excessive fees that may have led to evictions, according to people with knowledge of the discussions.

• Family of Chinese Regulator Profits in Insurance Firm’s Rise. Relatives of a top Chinese regulator profited enormously from the purchase of shares in a once-struggling insurance company that is now one of China’s biggest financial powerhouses, according to interviews and a review of regulatory filings.

Denver Post:

• Colorado's crush of gun checks requires more money, officials say. The Colorado Bureau of Investigation plans to ask lawmakers for half a million dollars to help it more quickly process the huge backlog of background checks for gun buyers that has deluged the agency for weeks.

TechCrunch:

• Intel’s(INTC) Cable TV Service And Set Top Box Will Soon Roll Out City By City. Intel is preparing to launch its rumored virtual cable TV service and set top box and has a plan to overcome licensing hurdles. Rather than roll out nationwide, the launch will happen on a city-by-city basis so Intel has more flexibility in negotiating licensing with reluctant content providers, according to a video industry source. The Intel box may also eliminate a core frustration with DVRs.

Reuters:

• China academics warn of "violent revolution" if no political reform. A prominent group of Chinese academics has warned in a bold open letter that the country risks "violent revolution" if the government does not respond to public pressure and allow long-stalled political reforms. The 73 scholars, including well-known current and retired legal experts at top universities and lawyers, said political reform had not matched the quick pace of economic expansion. "If reforms to the system urgently needed by Chinese society keep being frustrated and stagnate without progress, then official corruption and dissatisfaction in society will boil up to a crisis point and China will once again miss the opportunity for peaceful reform, and slip into the turbulence and chaos of violent revolution," they wrote. 

• Bad China bets ruin 2012 for Asia's star fund managers. The Warren Buffetts of the East failed to live up their reputations in 2012, when big-name investment gurus made the wrong calls on China while markets in India and Southeast Asia raced ahead to rank among the top performers globally. 

• Monti's reform path faces test beyond Italy elections.

itv:

• Al Qaeda offers gold bounty for US ambassador in Yemen. Al Qaeda-linked militants in Yemen have pledged to give three kilograms of gold - worth around £100,000 - to anyone who can kill the US ambassador in Sanaa. An audio message posted on militant websites also offered around £15,000 for the head of any American soldier found fighting in the country. A statement from the al Malahem Foundation, reported by the Associated Press, said the bounties would be valid for six months and were issued to "inspire and encourage our Muslim nation for jihad."

Telegraph:

• The US 'cliff' - one small part of a huge debt crisis. So here we are, at the turn of the year, with the global economy tottering on the edge of America’s fiscal cliff.

Frankfurt Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung:

• Bundesbank's Weidmann Warns Euro Crisis Not Yet Over. The causes of the crisis haven't been resolved, says Germany Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann in an interview. Govt. bond purchases by the ECB bear stability risks and the danger of mixing monetary and fiscal policies, Weidman said. The euro system shouldn't mutualize state solvency risks, Weidmann said. Weidmann proposes to limit banks' holding of govt. bonds and that govt bonds need to be secured with capital.

• Siemen's Loescher Expects Headwinds From Euro Zone. Siemens AG, Europe's largest engineering company, expects declining economic growth rates in 2013 with a slight recession in the euro zone, CEO Peter Loescher said in an interview.

Der Spiegel: 

• General Motors Co.'s(GM) European division plans production cut of more than 10% to 845,000 vehicles in 2013.

• German Finance Ministry Prepares Spending Cuts. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has mandated a task force to work out details for a budget restructuring plan. Proposals include abolishing the reduced VAT rate and increasing working years before retirement.

To Vima:

• Greece's main opposition Syriza party, which opposes terms agreed to by the government in exchange for bailout funds from the European Union and IMF, has 22.6% voter support, a poll by Kapa Research shows. PM Antonis Samaras's New Democracy party would get 21.5% if elections were held now. Nationalist Golden Dawn party would place third with 9.8% voter support.

Xinhua:

• China's small businesses continue to face difficulty getting loans as lenders view them as risky, citing the chief engineer of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.

China Securities Journal:

• China should expand the scope of property and resource tax trials, citing Li Wei, head of the State Council's Development Research Center. China should develop new "revenue sources" for local governments, citing Li.

Weekend Recommendations

Barron's:

• Bullish commentary on (MSI), (V), (AAPL), (PAY), (CRUS), (NOV), (ROST) and (MA).

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 112.50 +2.0 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 88.25 +.5 basis point.

• FTSE-100 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures +.21%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.01%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (CALM)/.90

Economic Releases 

• None of note
  

Upcoming Splits

• (AIRM) 3-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for December and the China Manufacturing PMI could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.