Weekly Outlook

U.S. Week Ahead by MarketWatch (video). 
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as US fiscal cliff concerns and Eurozone debt angst offset diminishing global growth fears and short-covering. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,466.47 +3.41%*




The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,466.47 +3.41%

• DJIA 13,435.21 +2.59%

• NASDAQ 3,101.65 +3.88%

• Russell 2000 879.15 +4.99%

• Value Line Geometric(broad market) 380.72 +4.65%

• Russell 1000 Growth 675.36 +3.34%

• Russell 1000 Value 739.44 +3.72%

• Morgan Stanley Consumer 861.36 +3.1%

• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,090.70 +5.29%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 704.64 +3.38%

• Transports 5,534.06 +5.10%

• Utilities 464.62 +3.02%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 93.52 +3.59%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 44.57 +2.83%

• Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias 1,077.38 -.07%

• Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias 807.58 +.79%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 164,732 +4.25%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 660 +751

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 58.3 +16.7%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 198,078 +1.7%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,473,345 -.22%

• Total Put/Call .84 -20.75%

• OEX Put/Call 1.14 +100.0%

• ISE Sentiment 119.0 +40.0%

• NYSE Arms .82 -40.58%

• Volatility(VIX) 13.83 -28.97%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 61.39 -9.92%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.86 -3.44%

• Smart Money Flow Index 10,951.38 +.35%

• Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.665 Trillion unch.

• AAII % Bulls 38.7 -12.8%

• AAII % Bears 36.2 +19.8%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 294.13 -.48%

• Crude Oil 93.09 +2.13%

• Reformulated Gasoline 276.43 -1.03%

• Natural Gas 3.29 -2.35%

• Heating Oil 301.77 -1.95%

• Gold 1,648.90 -.90%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 215.02 +1.56%

• Copper 369.35 +2.47%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 349.67 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 153.30 USD/Ton +9.97%

• Lumber 376.0 -3.14%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,534.96 -2.55%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 4.9% -50 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .2398 -6.87%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 112.66 +.50%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 34.10 -13.6 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 58.0% chance of no change, 42.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 1/30

• US Dollar Index 80.50 +1.04%

• Yield Curve 163.0 +18 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.90% +20 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $2.899 Trillion +.33%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 39.49 +9.69%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 174.0 -2.14%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 101.51 -8.07%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 149.66 -7.36%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 127.75 -6.05%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 446.87 -4.02%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 376.0 +7 basis points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.48% +4 basis points

• TED Spread 24.0 -6.25 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 13.75 -.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.25 -2.0 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 86.75 -9.18%
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 125.70 -10.82%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 193.73 -7.96%
  

• CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-Year Treasury Spread 90.0 unch.

• M1 Money Supply $2.463 Trillion +1.27%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,081.80 +1.50%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 360,000 +3,200

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.5% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.34% -1 basis point

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 650.30 -10.37%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -31.8 +.3 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +2.50% +10 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $3.30/gallon +.02/gallon

• U.S. Heating Demand Next 7 Days n/a

• Baltic Dry Index 706.0 +1.0%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,113.58 n/a

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 25.0-9.09%

• Rail Freight Carloads 155,800 -35.12%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +5.05%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +3.34%

Leading Sectors

• Gaming +11.21%

• Oil Tankers +9.43%

• Alt Energy +9.17%

• Education +8.55%

• Airlines +8.43%

Lagging Sectors

• REITs +1.86%

• Software +1.78%

• Disk Drives +.42%

• Gold & Silver +.20%

• HMOs -.65%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (5)

• ZIP, DUF, LNDC, ALJ and FII

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (0)

• None

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Euro Reversal, Short-Covering, Technical Buying, Financial/Transport Sector Strength

Broad Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• VIX 13.87 -4.74%

• ISE Sentiment Index 112.0 -19.4%

• Total Put/Call .86 +4.88%

• NYSE Arms .99 -13.35%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 85.79 +.16%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 125.71 +1.67%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 101.51 -.59%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 193.86 +.89%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 13.5 +.75 bp

• TED Spread 24.0 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.0 +.5 bp

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .07% unch.

• Yield Curve 164.0 +1 bp

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $153.30/Metric Tonne +2.34%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 34.10 -.6 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.48 +1 bp

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +102 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +10 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my retail/medical/tech/biotech sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Euro-Area Manufacturing, Services Shrink More Than Estimated. European services and factory output contracted more than initially estimated in December, adding to signs a recession in the region may extend into this year. A composite index based on a survey of purchasing managers in both industries was revised down to 47.2 from an initial estimate of 47.3 published on Dec. 14, London-based Markit Economics said in a report today.

• Euro-Area Consumer Prices Rise More Than Estimated on Food. Euro-area consumer prices increased more than economists estimated in December as higher prices for food and services offset slower growth in energy costs.

• Google(GOOG) Free to Extend Web Search Lead as U.S. Ends Probe. Google Inc. (GOOG) is free to extend its dominance of the $50 billion Internet-search market after U.S. regulators ended an investigation into whether the company unfairly disadvantaged competing websites by favoring its own services in search results.

• JPMorgan(JPM) Faces Sanction for Withholding Madoff Documents. The U.S. Treasury Department’s inspector general has threatened to punish JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) for failing to turn over documents to regulators investigating the bank’s ties to Bernard Madoff’s Ponzi scheme.

Wall Street Journal:

• Brazil to Ease Back on Stimulus Measures. Brazil's government plans to ease back on policies to weaken the currency and lower interest rates in 2013 as economic growth starts to recover after two years in the doldrums, Finance Minister Guido Mantega said in an interview. "2013 will be calmer, with fewer measures because they've been done," Mr. Mantega said. "Monetary and exchange rate policies are now adjusted."

• FDA Proposes Food-Safety Rules. Federal regulators on Friday proposed new rules aimed at preventing food-related illnesses, requiring that fruit and vegetable farmers keep deadly bacteria out of their fields and subjecting processors to stricter safety monitoring. The safety standards proposed by the Food and Drug Administration will cover all aspects of growing and harvesting produce, including crops like cantaloupes and lettuce, which have been the source of deadly illness outbreaks in recent years. Facilities that use those raw crops to make food like peanut butter will be ordered to implement government-approved plans to keep bacteria out.

Barron's:

• Gold: Is the Fed Signaling a Sell? Credit Suisse Calls Metal a ‘Wounded Bull’.

Fox News: 

• Ex-Burglars Say Newspaper’s Gun Map Would’ve Made the Job Easier, Safer. Reformed crooks say the New York newspaper that published a map of names and addresses of gun owners did a great service – to their old cronies in the burglary trade.

CNBC: 

• Santelli: 'This Whole Discussion is Childish!' (video)

Zero Hedge:

• 155,000 Jobs Added in December, Unemployment Rate 7.8%. (graph)

• US Services Add Jobs. 

• Spain - Out Damned Spot. 

• European Stocks End Best Week In 5 Months On Sour Credit Note. (graphs)

Business Insider:

• CHART OF THE DAY: THE SCARIEST JOBS CHART EVER. 

• GOLDMAN(GS): These Are The 40 Most Undervalued Stocks In The Market. 

• Factory Orders Show No Growth In November.

Reuters:

• Copper down on Fed minutes.

• Hedge fund chief Einhorn disappoints, Loeb has big 2012. 

• Mosaic(MOS) profit drops on weak China supply contract.

• Fund investors sought stocks ahead of U.S. fiscal deal -EPFR. Investors poured $5.06 billion into stock funds worldwide in the latest week, as the appetite for risk rose after U.S. lawmakers cobbled together a last-minute tax deal that avoided the worst of the so-called fiscal cliff, data from EPFR Global showed on Friday. 

• Bullard says Fed could pause QE this year. The Federal Reserve will be in a position to think about halting its large-scale asset purchases this year if the U.S. economy improves, a top central bank official said on Friday, fingering a 7.1-percent unemployment rate as a possible goal.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.12%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Steel -1.2% 2) Gold & Silver -1.05% 3) Computer Services -.52%
  

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• BBG, CSTR, FDS, TNAV, SNI, BSBR, ULTA, ENDP, BWS and FINL

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) UPL 2) HIG 3) MET 4) UA 5) MOS
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ARAY 2) IPGP 3) NYT 4) BWS 5) GM
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume