Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Ag +1.15% 2) Airlines +1.06% 3) Gold & Silver +.98%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- RNG, SGMO, DANG, ORAN, SSI, BJRI, QUNR, NM, AXLL, SINA, HA, AGIO, KEYW, WAC, PBF, IRBT, DWA, NTI, JOY, VLO and SWC
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) MDLZ 2) SPLS 3) PPHM 4) HA 5) SGMO
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) YHOO 2) UTX 3) FCEL 4) CIEN 5) IGT
Charts:
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are unch. to +.75% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 130.0 +1.0 basis point.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 97.0 -2.5 basis points.
- NASDAQ 100 futures +.11%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (SPLS)/.39
- (COST)/1.17
- (KR)/.72
- (JOY)/.65
- (CIEN)/.06
- (SSI)/.99
- (COO)/1.46
- (FNSR)/.44
- (HRB)/-.11
- (PF)/.58
- (TFM)/.42
- (PLCE)/.95
- (KFY)/.34
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Final 4Q Non-Farm Productivity is estimated to rise +2.2% versus a prior estimate of a +3.2% gain.
- Final 4Q Unit Labor Costs are estimated to fall -.5% versus a prior estimate of a -1.6% decline.
- Initial Jobless Claims are estimated at 336K versus 348K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated at 2970K versus 2964K the prior week.
10:00 am EST
- Factory Orders for January are estimated to fall -.5% versus a -1.5% decline in December.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The
Fed's Dudley speaking, Fed's Plosser speaking, Fed's Lockhart speaking,
ECB rate decision, BoE rate decision, Draghi press conference, 4Q
Household Net Worth Change, RBC Consumer Outlook Index for March,
Challenger Job Cuts report for February, BofA Refining Conference,
weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas
inventory report, (HUN) investor day, (COL) investor conference, (A)
analyst meeting and the (TRLA) analyst day could also impact trading
today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian
indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial
shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
- Sector Performance: Mixed
- Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 14.19 +.64%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.55 +.02%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.61 -2.93%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 53.73 +.84%
- ISE Sentiment Index 139.0 +14.88%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.56 +.12%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 87.10 -1.52%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 51.0 -1.30%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 96.67 -2.95%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 299.53 -1.02%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 361.06 -1.56%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 13.25 -.25 basis point
- TED Spread 18.25 -.75 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.25 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% unch.
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $116.80/Metric Tonne -.76%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -16.70 +2.0 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.0 -.4 point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.19 unch.
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating +1 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating -2 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs, index hedges and emerging markets shorts
- Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
Bloomberg:
- Russia Defies West’s Crimea Pleas as EU Offers Ukraine Aid. Russia defied pleas from the West to loosen its grip on Ukraine’s
southern Crimea region, as the European Union promised 1.6 billion euros
($2.2 billion) in emergency aid to help the Ukrainian government avert a default.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the western-backed
government in Kiev no longer rules over Crimea, saying control has
shifted to armed “self-defense” groups. U.S. Secretary of State John
Kerry warned Russia against violating “very clear legal obligations” to
uphold Ukraine’s unity.
- Moldova Warns of Contagion After Russia’s Intervention in Crimea. Moldovan Prime Minister Iurie Leanca
said Russia’s troop buildup in Crimea, an autonomous province of
Ukraine, could be replicated in other eastern European
countries. “It is just a very dangerous development,” Leanca said in
an interview at Bloomberg’s headquarters in New York today.
“It’s indeed very contagious.”
- China Bear Stearns Moment Seen by BofA in Solar Default Risk. A solar company’s potential default may be China’s
“Bear Stearns moment,” prompting investors to reassess credit risks as
they did after the U.S. lender was bailed out in 2008, according to Bank
of America Corp. “We doubt that the financial
system in China will experience a liquidity crunch immediately because
of this default but we think the chain reaction will probably start,”
Bank of America strategists David Cui, Tracy Tian and Katherine Tai
wrote in a note today. During the U.S. financial crisis, it took a year “to reach the Lehman stage” when investors began to panic and shadow
banking froze, the strategists added.
- EU Says Italy Faces a ‘Major Challenge’ in Reducing Debt.
Italy’s new government under Prime Minister Matteo Renzi faces a “major
challenge” in achieving strong growth and lowering its public debt, the
European Commission said today. “Italy has to address the very high level of public debt and weak external competitiveness,” the Brussels-based
commission said today in a report on the EU member countries’
economic imbalances. “Both are ultimately rooted in the
protracted sluggish productivity growth and demand urgent policy
attention.”
- European Stocks Little Changed After Data; Subsea Falls.
European stocks were little changed, after rallying yesterday by the
most in eight months, as data showed the region’s services output
expanded faster than estimated while U.S. hiring missed projections.
Subsea 7 SA tumbled the most since June after posting fourth-quarter
profit that missed analysts’ forecast. Melrose Industries Plc (MRO)
tumbled 7.8 percent after Numis Securities Ltd. advised investors to
sell the stock. Admiral Group (ADM) Plc rose 7.5 percent, for the
highest price in 2 1/2 years. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped less than 0.1 percent to 337.06 at the close in London.
- WTI, Brent Oils Decline on U.S. Supply Report. West Texas Intermediate and Brent
crudes extended losses after a government report showed that
U.S. inventories advanced for a seventh week.
Futures fell as much as 1.8 percent in New York after the
Energy Information Administration said supplies rose by 1.43 million
barrels to 363.8 million last week. Refineries operated at 87.4 percent
of capacity, down 0.6 percentage points from the prior week. Refiners
are performing maintenance as they transition to summer from winter
fuels. Oil also slipped on speculation that Ukraine’s crisis won’t
disrupt shipments.
- Americans Shut Out of Home Market Threaten Recovery: Mortgages. Kirk
Rohrig is concerned he may soon join the growing ranks of Americans
shut out of the housing recovery and the financial benefits that spring
from it. Rohrig, who is unmarried, began hunting in November for his
first home in Portland, Oregon, where cash buyers are driving up
property prices. The software support
specialist earns about $55,000 a year, has a high credit score of 790
and can’t find anything worth buying for about $200,000.
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
- Russia May Confiscate US Assets if Sanctioned. Secretary of State John Kerry will meet with Russian Foreign Minister
Sergey Lavrov to discuss the crisis in Ukraine on Wednesday, a day
after the U.S. escalated a war of words with Russian President Vladimir
Putin over Moscow's military intervention in Crimea. Kerry and Lavrov are expected to meet on the sidelines of a
long-planned conference on Syrian refugees, which is likely to be
overshadowed by ongoing tensions in Ukraine.
ZeroHedge:
Business Insider:
StockTwits:
Reuters:
- Fed confirms bad weather hit to U.S. economy in early 2014. Severe weather across much
of the United States took a toll on shopping and consumer
spending in recent weeks, leading to slower economic growth or
outright contraction in some areas of the country, the Federal
Reserve said on Wednesday. The Fed, in its anecdotal Beige Book report, said economic
activity in January and February shrank slightly in two of its
12 districts, New York and Philadelphia, mostly due to
"unusually severe weather."
- Facebook(FB), Instagram crack down on gun sales on social networks. Facebook Inc and its photo sharing subsidiary, Instagram, will delete posts offering to buy or sell guns without background checks, Facebook
announced on Wednesday.
- Global economic growth eased in February -PMI. JPMorgan's Global All-Industry Output Index, produced with
Markit, fell to 53.0 from January's 54.0.
- EU warns Italy is in economic trouble, France to miss deficit targets. The
European Commission put Italy on Wednesday on its watch list because of
the country's very high public debt and weak competitiveness and warned
France that will miss agreed budget deficit reduction targets unless it
takes action.
Financial Times:
- Ukraine crisis: Splits emerge in west’s stance on Russia. The
west’s diplomatic efforts to counter Russia’s takeover of Crimea faced
setbacks on multiple fronts on Wednesday as the Kremlin refused to
engage with the new Ukrainian government and allies themselves were
at loggerheads over how tough a line to take with Moscow.
- China ramps up rhetoric battle with Japan. Chinese
Premier Li Keqiang has warned Japan that China would not allow any
country to “reverse the course of history”, as Beijing and Tokyo remain
locked in an increasingly tense dispute over contested islands in the
East China Sea.
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Coal -1.27% 2) Steel -1.14% 3) Hospitals -1.10%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- NCLH, HCI, OAK, BOBE, VEEV, ACAD, LXFT, INXN, YY, CSIQ, NAV, PETM, ZU, UIL, CHEF, JBT, INSY, NSM, ETH, SJI, NUVA, FLT, FLTX, ENDP and ABM
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) KOG 2) END 3) CAM 4) NAV 5) EWA
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) XOMA 2) PG 3) GTIV 4) NTRS 5) X
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Gold & Silver +1.12% 2) Networking +1.06% 3) Agriculture +.64%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- ARWR, SWHC, AVAV, DANG, THRM, GMED, FENG, XXIA, SFUN, SZYM, CYTK, RKUS, GOGO, INVN, OSIR, FEYE, THRM, MXWL, IRBT, CYTK and WAC
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) FCEL 2) SWC 3) SWHC 4) GNK 5) XOMA
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) SWHC 2) IBM 3) HPT 4) MXWL 5) GMCR
Charts:
