Wednesday, June 04, 2014

Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 11:26 AM
Style Outperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Value -.21%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Insurance +1.23% 2) Biotech +.73% 3) Steel +.53%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • PL, RXN, VNDA, FSLR, RNA, AEGR, SPWR, VLCCF, NWL, MBI, WAG, EXAS, ALDR, ICPT, NYLD and X
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) END 2) DG 3) XOP 4) DIS 5) ALTR
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) WAG 2) APA 3) GOOG 4) LNKD 5) RL
Charts:
0 comments

Wednesday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 12:32 AM
Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:
  • World Bank Approves First Russia Investment Since Crisis. The World Bank approved an investment in Russia for the first time since President Vladimir Putin annexed Crimea, overriding opposition from Canada and lack of support from the U.S. The International Finance Corp., the lender’s private-sector arm, voted May 29 for parts of a 250 million euro ($340 million) package enabling French grocery retailer Groupe Auchan SA to expand in Russia, Vietnam and other emerging markets, World Bank spokeswoman Serene Jweied said yesterday in an e-mail.
  • Asia Territory Spats Pose Real Danger to Trade, Singapore Warns. The risk of territorial disputes damaging trade in Asia is “very real” and the region must focus on shoring up economic links as well as security ties, according to Singapore Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen. “It’s completely artificial to think that there are somehow firewalls between trade and security,” Ng, 55, said yesterday in an interview at the Ministry of Defence. “We shouldn’t from a security point of view be dominating headlines every few other days and I don’t think it’s necessarily a positive if this continues for the region. At some point it may impact trade and our real economies.”
  • Russian Military Jet Intercepted U.S. Plane Near Japan. A Russian Su-27 Flanker fighter jet intercepted a U.S. surveillance plane off Russia’s east coast near Japan in April, flying unusually close, as tensions rose over the Ukraine crisis. The U.S. RC-135U Combat Sent electronic intelligence plane made by Boeing Co. (BA) was conducting a routine mission over the Sea of Okhotsk north of Japan on April 23 when the Russian fighter flew within about 100 feet (30 meters) of its nose, Rear Admiral John Kirby, a Pentagon spokesman, said today. Asked why the Pentagon didn’t disclose the incident until it was reported today by the Washington Free Beacon, spokesman Army Colonel Steve Warren said, “I don’t have a good answer for you.” 
  • Nespresso Falls Victim to Mining Cutbacks as China Cools. China’s reduced craving for raw materials is driving mining companies to go to extreme measures to cut costs amid steadily falling prices. Having already cut billions of dollars, mining companies are now scratching for savings wherever they can find them, from renegotiating rubber contracts for tires, to adopting driverless trucks and trains. Even menus aren’t exempt.
  • Brookstone Won With $173 Million Bid by Chinese Buyers. Brookstone Inc., the bankrupt luxury-gadget retailer, agreed to sell its assets to a group of Chinese buyers for more than $173 million, after they outbid a unit of Spencer Spirit Holdings Inc. at an auction, a lawyer said.
  • Asian Stocks Retreat From 7-Month High Before U.S. Jobs. Asian stocks fell, with regional benchmark index retreating from a seven-month high, as investors await a report on U.S. jobs and a decision from the European Central Bank on monetary policy. Santen Pharmaceutical Co. dropped 1.5 percent in Tokyo, leading a decline among health-care shares. Australand Property Group. climbed to a six-year high in Sydney after Frasers Centrepoint Ltd., a Singapore property company spun off from Fraser & Neave Ltd., trumped Stockland’s offer to buy the firm. JFE Holdings Inc. climbed 3.1 percent after Credit Suisse Group AG advised buying shares of the Japanese steelmaker. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) slid 0.2 percent to 142.84 as of 9:52 a.m. in Hong Kong as more than four stocks fell for every three that rose.
  • Juncker Boosted as EU’s Christian Democrats Widen Lead. Europe’s Christian Democrats widened their lead over other political groups in the European Parliament after last month’s elections, bolstering Jean-Claude Juncker’s bid to take over the bloc’s top executive job. The Christian Democrats won 221, or 29 percent, of the 751 seats in the incoming European Union assembly, according to an update it releasedyesterday in Brussels of the May 22-25 election results. That compares with 214 seats estimated June 2 and last week.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • Ukrainian Forces Clash With Pro-Russian Rebels. Kiev Acknowledges 181 People Dead as a Result of Military Action in Eastern Ukraine.
  • After Guantanamo, Freed Detainees Returned to Violence in Syria Battlefields. Release of Five Senior Taliban Figures from the U.S. Detention Center Renews Debate. 
  • The Accelerating Spread of Terrorism. Since 2010, there has been a 58% increase in the number of jihadist groups world-wide. President Obama's decision to withdraw troops from Afghanistan by 2016 is a risky step and may embolden Islamic extremists. So could the release of five high-level prisoners from Guantanamo Bay in a swap with the Taliban to win the freedom of Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl. The number of al Qaeda and other jihadist groups and fighters are growing, not shrinking. U.S. disengagement—or even risking the return of terrorists to the field by freeing them from detention—is not the answer to the threat they pose. Instead, U.S. strategy...
  • Health Care Is Our Other Afghanistan. The president and his worker bees believe in ObamaCare about as much as they believe in the Afghanistan war. 
Fox News:
  • Boehner: Lawmakers briefed on Bergdahl trade 2 years ago, had 'serious' concerns. Top congressional leaders were briefed more than two years ago about the possible exchange of five Guantanamo prisoners for American soldier Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl, but raised "serious" concerns from the outset about the risks of such a trade, officials say. House Speaker John Boehner and others provided new details Tuesday about the prior deliberations, and voiced grave concern that the administration charged ahead with the prisoner swap over the weekend without Congress' approval.
  • Federal regs for auto dealers costing US economy more than $10B, study says. Federal regulations for auto dealers are costing America's economy more than $10 billion in lost sales and employment each year, according to a new study conducted by the Center for Automotive Research provided to Fox News.
CNBC: 
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters:
Financial Times: 
  • Russia and China plan own rating agency to rival western players. Russia and China have agreed to set up a joint rating agency as Moscow’s stand-off with the west over Ukraine has made it more eager to establish institutions that would reduce its dependence on the US and Europe. “In the beginning, the agency will assess Russian-Chinese investment projects with a view to attracting of [investors from] a number of Asian countries,” Anton Siluanov, Russia’s finance minister, said in Beijing, according to his ministry. “Gradually, based on the progress and authority of such an agency, we believe it will rise to a level where its opinions will attract other countries.”
Evening Recommendations
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.50% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 106.50 +1.0 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 79.75 +.75 basis point.
  • FTSE-100 futures +.04%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.11%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures  -.10%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (CYBX)/.04
  • (BF/B)/.58
  • (HOV)/.03
  • (FIVE)/.06
  • (PVH)/1.49 
Economic Releases
8:15 am EST
  • The ADP Employment Change for May is estimated at 210K versus 220K in April.
8:30 am EST
  • The Trade Deficit for April is estimated at -$40.8B versus -$40.4B in March.
  • Final 1Q Non-Farm Productivity is estimated at -3.0% versus a prior estimate of -1.7%.
  • Final 1Q Unit Labor Costs are estimated to rise +5.3% versus a prior estimate of a +4.2% gain.
9:45 am EST
  • Final Markit US Services PMI for May is estimated at 58.2 versus a prior estimate of 58.4.
10:00 am EST
  • The ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite for May is estimated to rise to 55.5 versus 55.2 in April.
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -160,000 barrels versus a +1,657,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +140,000 barrels versus a -1,803,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +640,000 barrels versus a -196,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.18% versus a +1.2% gain the prior week.
2:00 pm EST
  • U.S. Fed Releases Beige Book.
Upcoming Splits
  • (AAPL) 7-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone Services PMI, Bank of Canada decision, weekly MBA mortgage applications report and the Deutsche Bank Industrials/Basic Materials Conference could impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and real estate shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
0 comments

Tuesday, June 03, 2014

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Russia/Ukraine Tensions, Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Profit-Taking, Transport/Gaming Sector Weakness

Posted by Gary .....at 3:28 PM
Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 11.81 +1.98%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 145.77 +.33%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.16 +.14%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 55.05 -.79%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 75.0 -21.98%
  • Total Put/Call .93 +34.78%
  • NYSE Arms .71 -10.30% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.10 -.44%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 72.17 +.16%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 34.95 -.58%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 79.81 +1.02%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 254.26 +1.52%
  • China Blended Corporate Spread Index 323.23 -.93%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 13.50 unch.
  • TED Spread 19.75 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.75 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% unch.
  • Yield Curve 219.0 +5.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $92.50/Metric Tonne +.43%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -2.10 +1.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -22.60 -.5 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.19 -1.0 basis point
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +22 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -5 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/medical/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
1 comments

Today's Headlines

Posted by Gary .....at 3:04 PM
Bloomberg:  
  • Ukraine Fortifies Russian Border as Death Toll Climbs. Ukraine’s government said it’s deploying heavy weaponry and armored vehicles to strengthen its border with Russia and halt an influx of fighters after skirmishes with separatists claimed another dozen lives. Authorities in Kiev are also moving personnel and equipment to the western border with Transnistria, the breakaway Moldovan region where hundreds of Russian troops are stationed, State Border Service chief Mykola Lytvyn told reporters in Kiev today, without being more specific. 
  • Bond Yields Lowest Since Napoleon Are No Comfort to Europe Amid Deflation Fight. Europe’s lowest government bond yields since the Napoleonic Wars are signaling investors want more action from Mario Draghi. Instead of a vote of confidence, the most pronounced rally in 200 years suggests the European Central Bank president needs to stave off the risks of stagnation and deflation. Austria, Belgium, France (GFRN10) and Germany can borrow at lower rates (GDBR10) than the U.S. as inflation less than half the ECB’s target stokes concern the euro zone will take many years to recover from its longest-ever recession.
  • U.S. Rebuked by Israel for Continuing Palestinian Aid. The U.S. said it will maintain financial aid to the Palestinian Authority even under a new government backed by the Islamic Hamas movement, earning a rebuke from Israel. Secretary of State John Kerry called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday to discuss continuing U.S. support for the Palestinian Authority, according to State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki.
  • Brazil Debt Suffering Social-Spend Promises With Election. As President Dilma Rousseff’s lead narrows in polls before October’s election, she and her top opponent are courting voters with spending promises that would undermine the fiscal discipline investors say is needed to restore confidence in the economy. 
  • Chinese Stocks Fall for Third Day as Property Developers Decline. China’s stocks fell, with the benchmark index reversing gains in the last minutes of trading, as property and consumer staple companies declined. China Vanke Co. (000002), the nation’s biggest developer, slid 1.8 percent after SouFun Holdings Ltd. said the nation’s home prices fell in May for the first time in two years. Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co. plunged the most in six months to lead declines by milk companies. SDIC Power Holdings Co Ltd. added 2.8 percent after gauges of manufacturing output increased and the government took steps to boost lending at some banks. The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) fell less than 0.1 percent to 2,038.31 at the close, with about five stocks dropping for every three that rose.
  • European Stocks Fall as Investors Weigh ECB Rate Outlook. European stocks declined from a six-year high as a report showing lower-than-estimated inflation in the euro area prompted investors to weigh the outlook for interest rates before Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting. Pennon Group Plc lost 3 percent after saying pretax profit at its Viridor waste management unit fell about 20 percent. Eutelsat Communications SA slipped 3.7 percent as Abertis Infraestructuras SA sold its holding in the French satellite operator. Wolseley (WOS) Plc rose 1.6 percent after posting higher sales on improved demand in the U.S. and Nordic region. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index retreated 0.5 percent to 343.48 at the close of trading.
Wall Street Journal:
MarketWatch.com:
Fox News: 
  • Traded Taliban leaders free to roam in Middle East? Claim undercuts Obama assurance. President Obama's claim Tuesday that the U.S. would "be keeping eyes" on five hardened Taliban leaders traded for Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl's freedom was immediately challenged by a Middle East official quoted as saying they'd actually be allowed to move freely -- and even "go back to Afghanistan if they want to."
CNBC:
  • Silicon Valley rents soar as tech gobbles space. Asking rents in Palo Alto now average $83 a square foot annually. That's nearly triple the national average, according to Amber Schiada of Jones Lang LaSalle, a real estate services company. In the last four years, commercial real estate prices are up 75 percent in Palo Alto and in nearby Sunnyvale and Mountain View, prices are up 68 percent and 115 percent, respectively.
ZeroHedge: 
Business Insider: 
USAToday:
Reuters: 
Telegraph:
  • Europe remains a jobless swamp, despite the Spanish miracle. Italy lost 68,000 jobs in April, according to the country’s data agency ISTAT. The total employed fell to 22,295,000. Italian unemployment rose to 13.6pc. For youth it has climbed to a modern-era high of 43.3pc, implying very serious damage to Italy’s long-term economic dynamism due to labour hysteresis. The employment rate dropped to 55.2pc. Ageing workers are giving up the search for jobs – chiefly in the Mezzogiorno – and returning to their patches of land in impoverished early retirement.
Kommersant:
  • Ukraine May Confiscate Russian Assets After Crimea. Ukrainian Justice Ministry proposed confiscating Russian companies' assets in Ukraine and abroad to compensate for $92b losses from Crimea annexation, citing Minister Pavlo Petrenko as speaking in Kiev.
Folha de S.Paulo:
  • Brazil Vehicle Sales Fall 7% Y/Y in May.
0 comments

Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 12:44 PM
Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth -.70%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gaming -3.72% 2) Alt Energy -1.83% 3) Road & Rail -1.42%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • GOOD, CQP, WHZ, BAGL, KKD, CLVS, RCAP, PHH, AEIS, NRP, WAIR, TRI, IPCM, PKX, BERY, MNST, BITA, SAFM, FNHC, CNC, IPAR, TOUR, DXYN, HRS, MFRM, CBOE and TRN
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) JDSU 2) ACI 3) WLT 4) BRCM 5) XOM
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) MNST 2) CLVS 3) CLF 4) AXP 5) TXI
Charts:
0 comments

Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 11:23 AM
Style Outperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Value -.21%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Hospitals +1.06% 2) Semis +.49% 3) Utilities -.05%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • IDCC, HSH, GWRE, ACHC, SWKS, AMAT and TFM
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) MRO 2) EXPR 3) TIBX 4) CVA 5) TSN
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) DG 2) SWKS 3) DVN 4) AAPL 5) GD
Charts:
0 comments
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)