Market Week in Review

• S&P 500 1,925.15 -2.69%*

 The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,925.15 -2.69%

• DJIA 16,493.32 -2.76%

• NASDAQ 4,352.63 -2.18%

• Russell 2000 1,114.86 -2.61%

• S&P 500 High Beta 32.20 -3.33%

• Wilshire 5000 20,079.29 -2.65%

• Russell 1000 Growth 894.10 -2.43%

• Russell 1000 Value 971.62 -2.85%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 446.91 -2.98%

• Solactive US Cyclical 131.80 -3.53%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 958.05 -1.75%

• Transports 8,120.86 -3.65%

• Utilities 540.69 -2.84%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 105.24 -2.63%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 43.87 -1.80%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,171.99 -.49%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 967.38 -.43%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 223,108 -2.24%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -293 -637

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 43.24 -3.35%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 364,739 -1.81%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,628,926 -.85%

• Total Put/Call 1.24 +31.91%

• OEX Put/Call .74 -70.63%

• ISE Sentiment 43.0 -51.14%

• NYSE Arms .91 -10.78%

• Volatility(VIX) 17.03 +34.2%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 60.34 +8.25%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 5.65 +3.86%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.68 +13.41%

• Smart Money Flow Index 11,352.05 -2.51%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.554 Trillion -.34%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$3.374 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 31.1 +5.0%

• AAII % Bears 31.1 +3.9%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 292.48 -1.97%

• Crude Oil 97.88 -3.94%

• Reformulated Gasoline 274.43 -3.40%

• Natural Gas 3.80 +.4%

• Heating Oil 286.61 -1.59%

• Gold 1,294.10 -1.10%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 202.27 -2.08%

• Copper 321.45 -1.02%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 356.67 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 95.20 USD/Ton +.95%

• Lumber 324.10 -.58%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,297.60 -1.98%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 4.1% -10 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .1038 -9.11%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 126.99 +.14%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -13.0 +11.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.4 +.2 point

• Fed Fund Futures imply 40.0% chance of no change, 60.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 9/17

• US Dollar Index 81.30 +.33%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 143.75 +.69%

• Yield Curve 202.0 +4.0 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.49% +2.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.364 Trillion -.09%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 15.89 +2.50%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 165.0 unch.

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 37.74 +11.74%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 75.49 +6.21%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 209.84 +3.34%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 94.44 +7.93%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 361.50 +4.69%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 242.32 +9.56%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 309.60 +2.96%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.25% -2.0 basis points

• TED Spread 21.75 +.75 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.75 +.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.5 -.75 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 65.86 +11.33%
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 75.03 +11.17%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 280.45 +14.45%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 81.50 -1.5 basis points

• M1 Money Supply $2.876 Trillion +.62%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,046.40 +2.0%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 297,000 -4,750

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.9% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.12% -1.0 basis point

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 341.70 -2.20%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 36.3 -1.3 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +3.60% -30 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $3.52/gallon -.02/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 755.0 +2.16%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,096.44 +.38%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 27.50 -8.33%

• Rail Freight Carloads 264,809 -1.07%

Best Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth -2.3%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value -2.8%

Leading Sectors

• Gaming +1.1%

• Telecom +1.0%

• Hospitals +.7%

• Retail -.1%

• Defense -.9%

Lagging Sectors

• Alternative Energy -4.3% 

• Road & Rail -4.3%

• Construction -4.4%

• Oil Service -4.6%

• Homebuidlers -5.0%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (28)

• ZLTQ, AMED, JRN, FDO, LPSN, RUBI, SNCR, PTRY, IPHI, DCO, DTLK, CYNO, XPO, ABAX, TRLA, EXAM, WIN, OPLK, FTD, ATRO, VRSN, IPGP, HSP, CGNX, DRII, RFMD, EW and SSP

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (52)

• TSN, CMP, HURN, MGLN, RBC, CHMT, ROK, INFA, DORM, ENTG, CALM, BWLD, RRTS, NTGR, COLM, EMN, MXIM, NTRI, TTEK, FEIC, EPR, UIHC, HUM, AWI, MOH, HW, DWA, ETN, SLAB, OSK, AIMC, MW, LLL, RGR, RYL, GRC, MMSI, CODE, WIRE, MTW, OCN, ATEN, IPXL, DEST, BZH, WCG, MGAM, GNW, SWFT, ASGN, ARCB and EHTH

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Slighlty Lower into Afternoon on Rising European/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Global Growth Fears, Ruaaia-Ukraine/Mideast Tensions, Financial/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Slightly Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.73 -1.30%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 143.72 -.01%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.72 -1.90%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 59.54 -2.28%

• ISE Sentiment Index 38.0 -44.93%

• Total Put/Call 1.20 +22.45%

• NYSE Arms .85 +44.38% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 65.70 +4.39%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 75.33 +2.92%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 37.73 +7.23%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 75.07 +.17%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 280.20 +2.84%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 309.59 +1.20%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 21.0 +.75 basis point

• TED Spread 21.75 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.5 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% unch.

• Yield Curve 203.0 unch.

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $95.20/Metric Tonne -.42%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -13.0 -.5 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.40 +2.0 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.25 -3.0 basis points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -14 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +1 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech sector longs and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.92%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -2.13% 2) Networking -1.90% 3) Banks -1.32%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• MVNR, WWWW, ATHL, IMMR, YRCW, OCN, OMG, RARE, ASH, AXL, EHTH, ARRS, VCYT, INSY, RMD, MT, CIR, NGVC, BBG, HF, DISCK, LRE, STAA, CTRX, NSP, VNR, WU, EPE, MDAS, TDS, GWR, SSP, WLL, CJES, PKI, RMD, DATA, RSPP, HCLP, GTLS, ATHL, EHTH, SPWR, LYV, CTRL, CTRL and AAWW

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CMG 2) PCLN 3) AXL 4) XOP 5) BAC
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) PKI 2) BBG 3) DDD 4) PBF 5) WWWW
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value -.61%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) HMOs +.63% 2) Defense +.54% 3) Gold & Silver +.45%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• BYI, SPR, AWI, EXPE, GDOT, LNKD, IMPV, SWIR, DGI, SPR, SYNA, BZH, SGEN and CENX

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) AXL 2) RMD 3) RRC 4) CYH 5) ESRX
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) PG 2) TSLA 3) EXPE 4) SYK 5) CHD
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 

• Why Putin Has 2006 Flash Before His Eyes After Sanctions. With the world watching if U.S. and European sanctions over Ukraine usher in a new Cold War, the showdown first risks sparking a return to capital controls in Russia after they were dismantled eight years ago. President Vladimir Putin’s government scrapped capital controls in 2006, becoming the only one of the biggest emerging economies to allow unrestricted flows of money across borders. If the Ukrainian conflict worsens, tripwires may be set off in case the ruble weakens 15 percent or the country’s international reserves fall about $100 billion, according to Russian economic institutes that advise the government. 

• Abenomics Charm Fades as Yields Signal Headwinds: Japan Credit. Japan’s bond investors are mirroring voters in turning away from Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The nation’s implied forward yield, an indicator of traders’ expectations for the 10-year note rate in 2016, fell to 1.62 percent on July 29. That’s the lowest since the Bank of Japan announced record stimulus in April 2013, suggesting reduced bets that an improving economy will depress demand for the safety of sovereign debt.

• Argentina Debt Dilemma Spotlights Knotted World of Default Swaps. Whenever the knotted world of credit-default swaps is pushed to the forefront in a financial crisis, conspiracy theories abound. Argentina is no exception. Argentine Economy Minister Axel Kicillof described a group of so-called holdout creditors this week as “vulture funds” after failing to reach a restructuring agreement with them. Kicillof specifically directed his ire at credit swaps, a market, he said, that clouds the motives of creditors while leading to “the most wretched speculative capitalism that exists.” “When they present a solution you don’t know if it’s something you can believe at the negotiating table or if there’s something else that you’ll never know about happening outside that gives them greater benefits,” Kicillof told reporters at a July 30 news conference. 

• China Rongsheng Sees Wider Loss on Sluggish Ship Orders. China Rongsheng Heavy Industries Group Holdings Ltd. (1101), the country’s second-largest private shipbuilder, said it expects losses in the first half to widen after customers canceling orders forced it to cut production. The Shanghai-based company expects a “significant increase” in the net loss for the six months that ended in June compared with a year earlier, according to a filing to the Hong Kong Exchange yesterday. The shipbuilder cited its “conservative operation strategies” for the slump after customers changed orders as global demand stayed sluggish.

• Asian Stocks Extend Global Rout Amid Earnings Concerns. Asian stocks dropped, extending the biggest global rout in six months that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average wipe out this year’s gains in one session amid weaker earnings and credit-market concerns. Skymark Airlines Inc. sank 7.7 percent after Japan’s third-largest carrier said it may go out of business should it have to pay Airbus Group NV a penalty for canceling the planned purchase of six A380 superjumbos. Samsung Electronics Co. fell 1.7 percent in Seoul after UBS AG cut its rating on the stock. Sony Corp. rose 5.7 percent in Tokyo as the maker of PlayStation game consoles posted a surprise first-quarter profit. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) fell 0.5 percent to 148.07 as of 10:17 a.m. in Tokyo, heading for its first weekly loss in three weeks.

• Commodities Cap Biggest Monthly Decline Since May 2012. Commodities had the worst monthly performance in more than two years, led by losses for crops including soybeans and wheat on signs of bigger supplies. The Bloomberg Commodity Index of 22 raw materials fell 5 percent in July to 127.91, the biggest loss since May 2012. Corn had the largest drop since 2011, and cotton posted for the longest losing streak in three years. 

• WTI Falls After Biggest Monthly Drop in Two Years; Brent Slides. West Texas Intermediate dropped for a fifth day after capping the biggest monthly decline in more than two years amid concern a prolonged shutdown of a Kansas refinery will reduce crude demand. Brent slid in London. Futures slid as much as 0.5 percent in New York, extending a 6.8 percent loss in July.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Israel, Hamas Agree to 3-Day Cease-Fire. Will Hold Talks in Egypt on More Lasting Solution. Israel and Hamas agreed to a three-day cease-fire in the Gaza conflict with the hope of forging a more lasting peace. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon announced the truce, set to begin Friday morning, in a joint statement issued in New Delhi. A spokesman for Hamas, the Islamist group that rules Gaza, confirmed that all militant factions in the Palestinian territory had agreed to suspend violence. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office confirmed the agreement. Israel, Hamas and other Palestinian factions would travel to Cairo immediately for negotiations aimed at building the cease-fire into a more lasting truce, the U.S. and U.N. said. During the pause, Israel won't pull back its forces inside Gaza. 

• History Suggests China is On Verge of Banking Crisis.

• Bears Who Won Big During Finance Crisis Are Growling Again. Singer and Lippmann Are Among Hedge-Fund Managers Wary of the Potential for Prices to Fall. Many of the Wall Street money managers who made billions by anticipating the U.S. housing bubble see more trouble on the horizon. Unlike before the crisis, when those traders were mostly united against subprime mortgages, the wagers vary this time. Some are against U.S. junk bonds, while others are targeting European sovereign debt. The... 

• Junk Bonds Sink on Fears Rally Will End as Economy Picks Up. U.S. Junk-Bond Funds Post $1.48 Billion Weekly Outflow. Investors retreated from risky corporate debt on Thursday, sending prices tumbling and deepening fears of an end to a long rally in junk bonds. 

• Apollo Global Starts New Hedge Fund to Short Junk Bonds. Private-Equity Firm to Launch With External Money This Fall.

• Leaving U.S. Allies Adrift as Chaos Rises by Joseph Lieberman. In Eastern Europe, Asia and the Middle East, America's friends are on the defensive and increasingly feeling alone. When I was getting into politics in Connecticut a long time ago, an experienced politician counseled me: Be loyal to your friends and people who have supported you. Take care of them whenever you can. You should also try to convince people who opposed you in the last election to support you in the next election, but never do that by being disloyal to your friends or you will end up without anybody you can depend on when you need help. I have been thinking of that wise counsel as numerous crises threaten the world's...
  

Zero Hedge:

• Pole-Dancing And/Or Happy Women Should Avoid Turkey, Deputy PM.

• Tesla's(TSLA) Non-GAAP Quarter In Three Gigacharts (Added Free Option: GAAP Charts).

• "Markets In Turmoil" Russell 2000 Plunges Most In Over 2 Years, Dow Down For 2014. (graph)

• "Stability Breeds Instability", Or Why John Taylor Is Angry.

• Previewing Tomorrow's 'Anti-Goldilocks' Payrolls Data.

• China PMI Jumps To 2 Year Highs (Jobs Contract For 27 Months), Japan PMI Slips (Jobs Worst In 11 Months). (graph)

• The Coming Slump.

Business Insider:

• Without Realizing It, Russian Soldiers Are Proving Vladimir Putin Is Lying About Eastern Ukraine.

• MORGAN STANLEY(MS): Russia Could Cut Off Gas To Europe.

 CNN:

• Source: Flight leaves for Liberia to evacuate Americans infected with Ebola.

Reuters:

• Tesla(TSLA) expects to boost 2015 output to more than 60,000. Tesla Motors Inc, the California-based maker of luxury electric cars, said it expects to build more than 60,000 cars in 2015, after spending heavily this year to update and expand its Fremont assembly plant.
  The initial response from investors was mixed, with shares rising, falling, then climbing again after Musk's call with analysts. They closed at $223.30, down 2.5 percent, in regular trading. 

• Expedia(EXPE) profit rises on higher hotel, flight bookings. Online travel agency Expedia Inc reported better-than-expected quarterly results, driven by higher hotel and flight bookings. Expedia shares rose as much as 4 percent to $82.65 after the bell on Thursday.

• U.S.-based stock funds attract $7.6 bln over week -Lipper.

• Third straight week of outflows from high-yield funds: Lipper. US high-yield funds have seen a third consecutive week of outflows, Lipper reported on Thursday, with US$1.476bn being pulled out of the asset class. For the three weeks ended 7/30, the total outflow is $5.536bn. 

• LinkedIn forecasts strong qtr, driven by hiring business. Corporate networking site LinkedIn Corp forecast better-than-expected adjusted profit and revenue in the current quarter, helped by a rapid rise in its hiring business. Shares of the company rose as much as 15 percent to $208 in extended trading.

Evening Recommendations

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -1.0% to -.50% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 108.5 +5.0 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 75.0 +4.0 basis points.

• FTSE-100 futures -.25%.

• S&P 500 futures +.30%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures  +.37%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (AXL)/.71

• (MT)/.20

• (BKW)/.23

• (CBOE)/.50

• (CVX)/2.67

• (CLX)/1.35

• (HLT)/.19

• (PG)/.91

• (RUTH)/.20

• (WY)/.35

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• The Change in Nonfarm Payrolls for July is estimated at 230K versus 288K in June.

• The Unemployment Rate for July is estimated at 6.1% versus 6.1% in June.

• Average Hourly Earnings for July are estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in June.

• Personal Income for June is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.4% gain in May.

• Personal Spending for June is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +2% gain in May.

• The PCE Core for June is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.2% gain in May.

9:45 am EST

• The Final Markit US Manufacturing PMI for July is estimated to rise to 56.5 versus a prior estimate of 56.3.

9:55 am EST

• Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for July is estimated to rise to 81.8 versus a prior estimate of 81.3.

10:00 am EST

• The ISM Manufacturing for July is estimated to rise to 56.0 versus 55.3 in June.

• ISM Prices Paid is estimated at 58.0 versus 58.0 in June.

• Construction Spending for June is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.1% gain in May.
  

Afternoon:

• Total Vehicle Sales are estimated to fall to 16.7M versus 16.92M in June.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Fisher speaking and Eurozone PMI report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.