Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 

• Russia Scraps EU Gas Link in Favor of Turkish Deliveries. Russia scrapped a proposed natural gas pipeline that the European Union opposed because it would bypass Ukraine, moving forward instead with plans to ship more fuel to Turkey. The decision to shelve the $45 billion South Stream project is the latest sign that Russia’s economic ties with Europe continue to fray as the crisis in Ukraine persists. The route under the Black Sea would have offered Russia’s OAO Gazprom a more direct path to feed the continent’s gas needs, a plan the European Union objected to because it would reduce Ukraine’s leverage against its neighbor.

• RBA Keeps Record-Low Rate to Boost Economy as Commodities Tumble. The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its benchmark interest rate at a record low to spur hiring in an economy struggling for traction as commodity prices tumble. The overnight cash rate target was held at 2.5 percent for a 16th month, according to a statement today from Governor Glenn Stevens following a board meeting in Sydney. The decision was predicted by all 30 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and markets had priced almost no chance of a move. 

• China ETF Outflows Show Traders Losing Faith in Rally. Exchange-traded fund investors are showing little confidence that the world-beating rally in China’s domestic stock market will last. Traders pulled about $845 million from the CSOP FTSE China A50 ETF (2822) in the two weeks through Nov. 28, the biggest outflow since the $5.7 billion fund was started in 2012, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The $9.7 billion iShares FTSE A50 China Index ETF lost $585 million last week, the most since 2009, as the Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) Index rose to a three-year high.

• Draghi Treads Path of ECB Powerlessness Toward QE Without Reform. Looking out from the top of the European Central Bank’s new tower in Frankfurt, it’s easy to find dark clouds on the horizon. The view for policy makers is of a euro-zone populace so weary of years of economic turmoil that it’s increasingly electing politicians who say no to pan-European cooperation, and spurn reforms that the ECB says are vital to revive the economy. Trapped by their mandate to prevent deflation, officials fret they might soon be forced to roll out quantitative easing that can never succeed by itself.

• Emerging Market Distressed Debt Loses Most Since 2008. Losses in emerging market distressed debt have mounted to the worst since the global financial crisis led by Indonesian coal miner PT Bumi Resources and ZAO Russian Standard Bank. Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s distressed emerging markets corporate index tumbled 2.7 percent yesterday after a 5.6 percent drop in November. The gauge, which tracks 108 dollar-and euro-denominated debentures from Russia to China and Brazil, has retreated 9.8 percent this year, the most since a 36.8 percent slide in 2008.

• Oil Resumes Drop as Commodity Volatility Jumps; Won Rises. Oil resumed declines after jumping from a five-year low and metals retreated amid the highest commodity-price volatility in two years. South Korea’s won led emerging-market currencies higher and Asian mining and energy companies rebounded. West Texas Intermediate crude retreated 0.6 percent by 11:44 a.m. in Tokyo.

• Copper in London Declines on Oil, China Manufacturing Weakness. Copper declined for the sixth time in seven days as crude oil retreated and after a gauge of manufacturing strength fell to an eight-month low in China, the largest metals consumer. Copper dropped as much as 0.9 percent. Oil trimmed the biggest rally since August 2012 as investors weighed OPEC’s decision to let the market curb a global supply glut. China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index was at 50.3 in November, the lowest since March, according to government data yesterday, while a private gauge from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics retreated to 50 from 50.4 in October.

• Get Ready for Big Mortgage Rate Increases. A decade ago, the housing market was heading into the busiest years of the bubble. Ten years later, hundreds of thousands of homeowners are about to get a nasty surprise. As their loans turn 10 years old, they will see their monthly loan payments reset higher—in some cases more than double.

• Beware the Vulnerable Oil Debt That Lurks in Your Junk-Bond ETFs. (video) It pays to look a little closer at your investments in exchange-traded high-yield funds right now to find out just how exposed you are to plunging oil prices. Take State Street (STT) Corp.’s $9.8 billion junk-bond ETF that trades under the ticker JNK. (JNK) It’s lost almost twice as much as a broad index of high-yield debt since the end of August, partly because its bigger allocation to energy companies has been a drag as oil prices plummet to the lowest since 2009.

• U.S. Corporate Bond Sales Pass $1.5 Trillion for Annual Record. U.S. corporate bond sales swelled to an annual record as a late-year rush by companies to lock in low interest rates pushed offerings for 2014 past $1.5 trillion. Bolstered by issues last month including $8 billion from Internet commerce company Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) and a $17 billion sale today by heart-rhythm device maker Medtronic Inc. (MDT), volume passed the previous high of $1.494 trillion set last year. Companies have offered $1.168 trillion of investment-grade notes in 2014 and $344 billion of junk bonds, propelled by multiple sales from Verizon Communications Inc. and General Electric Co. (GE), according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That outpaces the $1.146 trillion of high-grade notes and $348 billion of junk notes issued last year, the data show.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Dodgy Home Appraisals Are Making a Comeback. Industry Executives See Parallels With Pre-Crisis Valuations; Regulators Are Wary. Home appraisers are inflating the values of some properties they assess, often at the behest of loan officers and real-estate agents, in what industry executives say is a return to practices seen before the financial crisis. 

• Supreme Court Weighs When Social-Media Threats Become Criminal Acts. Justices Seen Seeking Middle-Ground Approach in Setting Threshold.

• Basic Costs Squeeze Families. Health Care, Cellphones Eat Up Income, Leaving Less for Things Like Movies, Clothes. The American middle class has absorbed a steep increase in the cost of health care and other necessities as incomes have stagnated over the past half decade, a squeeze that has forced families to cut back spending on everything from clothing to restaurants.

• UVA, Ferguson and Media Failure. Narratives and allegations are not facts, despite what the media would have us believe. 

Fox News:

• Lawsuit claims ICE mounted campaign to ‘purge’ senior officials amid immigration changes. A longtime federal immigration attorney claims Immigration and Customs Enforcement managers mounted a campaign of "humiliation" and "brutal scape-goating" to purge officials they didn't want, raising concerns from a top GOP lawmaker that the administration was trying to "force compliance" with its controversial policies.

MarketWatch.com:

• China plays big role in oil’s slide. If you want to understand why the demand side of oil has been unraveling — and why it could continue — look no further than China. 

• Iran, Venezuela, Russia may face pain from cratering oil prices. Falling oil prices are good news for the average U.S. consumer. But tanking oil is likely to crimp the fiscal budgets of regimes like Iran, Venezuela and Russia — regimes that have proved antagonistic to the U.S.

• Cypress, Spansion agree to $4 billion all-stock merger.

CNBC: 

• As crude tumbles, oil drillers seek to temporarily idle more rigs. Offshore drillers globally are increasingly considering "warm stacking" their rigs to take them temporarily off the market, as they gear up for a slowdown in the hunt for oil with crude prices sliding to five-year lows. 

• U.S. shale producers' 'knives are already out': Yergin. (video) While oil prices are down after OPEC refused to curtail production, it won't have a big impact on output from U.S. shale producers, at least for the near term, IHS' Dan Yergin told CNBC on Monday.

Zero Hedge:

• Total US Debt Rises Over $18 Trillion; Up 70% Under Barack Obama.

• It's Muppet-Slaughtering Time - Goldman(GS) Unveils 2015 Global Equity Themes. (graph)

• The Fed's Biggest Nightmare: Consumers Are "Losing Faith" Their Cost Of Living Won't Keep Rising.

• US Debt In Public Hands Doubles Under Barack Obama. (graph)

• The Longest Streak In Stock Market History... Is Over. (graph)

• Crude Crash Slams Venezuelan Bonds To Close At 5-Year Lows: 21% Yield. (graph)

• Tensions Between US & Russia Are Worse Than You Realize – Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

• 2014 Is Now The Worst Year For US Macro Data Performance Since 2008. (graph)

Business Insider:

• Hedge Funds Are Closing Like It's 2009.

• ISIS Is Running An Alarmingly Effective Terrorist State.

• FBI Warns US Businesses Of New Destructive Cyber Attacks.

• US Retailers Are Becoming Wary Of Alibaba(BABA).

Reuters: 

• Cyber ring stole secrets for gaming U.S. stock market -FireEye(FEYE). Security researchers say they have uncovered a cyber espionage ring focused on stealing corporate secrets for the purpose of gaming the stock market, in an operation that has compromised sensitive data about dozens of publicly held companies.

• Speculators add to net U.S. long dollars, highest since 2008-CFTC. 

• Bond funds worldwide attract $204 bln inflows, beat stocks -BofA. Investors worldwide have poured $204 billion into bond funds year to date, easily surpassing inflows of $121 billion into stock funds, a Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research report showed on Monday.

Telegraph: 

• Capital controls feared as Russian rouble collapses. 'Funding problems are increasing dramatically. We think Russia is now flirting with systemic problems,' said Danske Bank.

The Independent:

• Russian rouble suffers biggest fall since 1998 crisis as oil price tumbles. The plummeting oil price pulled Russia’s currency down with it today, with the rouble recording its biggest interday fall since its 1998 currency crisis.

Evening Recommendations

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.50% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 103.50 +1.5 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 64.25 +2.0 basis points.

• FTSE-100 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures +.10%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures  +.11%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (VNCE)/.33

• (BOBE)/.33

• (OVTI)/.51

Economic Releases
9:45 am EST

• ISM New York for November is estimated to rise to 55.0 versus 54.8 in October.

10:00 am EST

• Construction Spending for October is estimated to rise +.6% versus a -.4% decline in September.

Afternoon:

• Total Vehicle Sales for November are estimated to rise to 16.6M versus 16.35M in October.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Yellen speaking, Fed's Stanley Fischer speaking, Fed's Dudley speaking, Australia GDP report, US weekly retail sales reports, CSFB Industrials Conference, Piper Healthcare Conference, Citi Basic Materials Conference, (JCI) analyst meeting, (UNH) investor conference and the (BDC) investor meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and real estate shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the early close, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Global Growth Fears, Russia-Ukraine Tensions, Rising Emerging Markets/European Debt Angst, Transport/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.42 +8.18%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 154.15 -.04%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.37 +4.36%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 68.23 -.44%

• ISE Sentiment Index 89.0 +20.27%

• Total Put/Call .97 unch.

• NYSE Arms 1.19 -4.45% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.95 +2.95%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.53 +.17%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 28.40 +1.0%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 63.96 +2.59%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 287.55 +5.10%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 328.77 +1.51%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.50 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 22.75 +.75 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.75 -2.75 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.

• Yield Curve 173.0 unch.

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $71.11/Metric Tonne -.29%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 7.80 +1.6 points
• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -20.80 +2.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.7 -3.5 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.81 -3.0 basis points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -50 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating -3 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and added to my (EEM) short

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.62%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -4.76% 2) Coal -4.42% 3) Road & Rail -2.72%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• BOKF, VPFG, BBEP, QUNR, PRIM, WEX, AIRR, CFR, GBX, PSIX, MCEP, EMES, LINE, PWR, EXLP, SSL, SDRL, PB, FTK, BUD, PBA, SXE, SLCA, KEX, LGCY, APL, HCLP, EVEP, LINE, ARP, HEES, TRGP, NGLS, NRP, TCS, LNCO, MTZ, VNR, SM, BCEI, CMLP, ATLS, SLCA, TESO, TRN, AZPN, OAS, ARII, NS, ACM, ROSE, MEMP, ARLP, UPL, URI, CJES, GPRE, WCC, CRZO, FTK, GEL, OIS, CVRR, TNET, CLMT, OKS, KYN, WLL, SPN, GWR, CG, GME, DPM, TCBI, CAM, NSC, KSU, WMB, EQM, EPE, NTI, XPO and FLR

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) AMD 2) EWW 3) KRE 4) XLF 5) UPL

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) PWR 2) TSLA 3) FLR 4) WEX 5) BABA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.70%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +2.72% 2) Utilities +.38% 3) Drugs +.12%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• HA

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) MJN 2) GPRE 3) CDE 4) UCO 5) NLNK
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) DE 2) AEM 3) NAV 4) ASH 5) MKC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines 
Bloomberg:

• Russia’s New Aid Convoy to Rebels Riles Ukraine as Crisis Mounts. Russia is sending a convoy of more than 100 vehicles with what it says is humanitarian assistance to rebel-held territory in Ukraine, drawing accusations from the authorities in Kiev that it’s aiding separatists. The dispatch marks the eighth such mission since August by Russia, which says it’s acting to mitigate the humanitarian suffering caused by the unrest. Ukraine has called the convoys an invasion and blamed Russia for the toll on civilians. The repeated sight of trucks covered with white tarpaulins crossing from Russia underscores Ukraine’s loss of control over parts of the border amid its bloodiest conflict since the Second World War.

• Russian Warships Enter English Channel Amid Tension Over Ukraine. Russian warships entered the English Channel amid simmering tensions with the U.S. and Europe over the conflict in Ukraine. The squadron will conduct exercises in the area, according to a spokeswoman for Russia’s Northern Fleet. At least four vessels led by the anti-submarine ship Severomorsk plan drills in the expanse of water separating England from continental Europe, the state-run news service RIA Novosti said yesterday, citing a statement by the Russian Navy. NATO said the foray isn’t “alarming, it’s normal maritime traffic.” Russia is embroiled in its most serious confrontation with the U.S. and its European allies since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

• ETF Tumbles on Crude’s Plunge as Ukraine Crisis Weighs. The biggest exchange-traded fund for Russian equities plunged to a five-year low amid concern a deepening oil rout will push the world’s largest energy exporter, already beset by international sanctions, further toward a recession. The Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX) sank 5.5 percent on Nov. 28 to $19.56, the lowest since April 2009, extending November’s tumble to 11 percent. The ruble, the worst performing emerging-market currency in 2014, fell for the first time below 50 versus the dollar, completing a 13 percent slide for the month.

• ECB’s Lautenschlaeger Rebuffs QE as German Opposition Grows. European Central Bank Executive Board member Sabine Lautenschlaeger said quantitative easing isn’t the right policy choice for the euro area currently, hardening a split among officials over the right response to slowing inflation. “A consideration of the costs and benefits, and the opportunities and risks, of a broad purchase program of government bonds does not give a positive outcome,” Lautenschlaeger, a former Bundesbank vice president, said at an event in Berlin today. “There are very few shared competencies in fiscal policy. As long as this is the case, the ECB’s purchase of government securities is inevitably linked to a serious incentive problem.” 

• Japan Dairies Losing as Abe’s Weak Yen Boosts Corn Costs. Japan’s dairies and cake lovers just can’t seem to catch a break. A weakening yen is making it more expensive for farmers to import the U.S. corn their cows eat at a time when record crops have reduced livestock-feeding costs around the world. And while Japanese milk demand is increasing and prices of some dairy products are at record highs, domestic production is the lowest in three decades even as rising output everywhere else creates a global surplus.

• Xi Says China Will Keep Pushing to Alter Asia Security Landscape. China will continue its efforts to rewrite Asia’s security architecture to increase its influence, President Xi Jinping said in a foreign policy speech over the weekend, according to Xinhua, the state-run news agency. “We should be fully mindful of the complexity of the evolving international architecture, and we should also recognize that the growing trend toward a multi-polar world will not change,” Xi said, according to Xinhua. 

• Hong Kong Protesters Clash With Police for Street Control. Hong Kong police used batons, pepper spray and water hoses in battles with pro-democracy protesters for control of streets near the government’s headquarters, as student leaders pledged to fight on for free elections. Student leaders called this morning for people to head to the Admiralty district as demonstrators, some with makeshift shields and head gear, clashed with police along Lung Wo Road and other junctions near the main protest site in the city. Traffic was flowing on the roadway as of 9:30 a.m. local time. 

• Global Bond Yields Decline to 18-Month Low on Inflation Outlook. A gauge of government bond yields around the world fell to an 18-month low as tumbling oil prices push down inflation expectations and economic growth falters. The average yield among securities in the Bank of America Merrill Lynch World Sovereign Bond Index dropped to 1.59 percent at the end of last week, the lowest level since May 2013. Australian 10-year yields dropped below 3 percent for the first time in two years.

• Chinese Stocks in Hong Kong Fall Most in Two Weeks on PMI Data. Chinese stocks trading in Hong Kong fell, sending the benchmark index to its biggest loss in two weeks, as a drop in the nation’s manufacturing gauge increased concern economic growth is slowing. Jiangxi Copper Co., the largest Chinese producer of the metal, plunged 4 percent, while PetroChina Co., the biggest oil company, declined 2.7 percent. Ping An Insurance (Group) Co., China’s second-biggest insurer, gained 2.2 percent after it said it will raise HK$36.8 billion ($4.75 billion) in a Hong Kong share sale. Airlines rallied in Shanghai as oil prices extended losses, while lenders climbed after the government said it will start an insurance system for bank deposits. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) slipped 1.2 percent to 11,003.28 at 10:51 a.m.

• Asia Stocks Fall With U.S. Futures on China, Holiday Data. Asian stocks fell with U.S. index futures as a Chinese manufacturing gauge dropped, American holiday spending slowed and oil tumbled to a five-year low. Malaysia’s ringgit headed for the biggest two-day retreat since 1998 and precious metals slumped. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) fell 0.7 percent by 11:42 a.m. in Tokyo, with Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures dropping 0.4 percent. West Texas Intermediate crude lost 2.1 percent to $64.74 a barrel, sending Australian energy stocks toward the biggest three-day loss since the global financial crisis. Gold sank as Swiss voters rejected a measure to force the central bank to hold bullion. The Bloomberg-JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index fell to a four-year low as the ringgit weakened 1.2 percent. 

• Ringgit Set for Biggest Two-Day Drop Since 1998 on Oil Decline. Malaysia’s ringgit headed for its biggest two-day decline since the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis and led losses in emerging markets on concern a protracted slide in crude will erode the net oil-exporting nation’s revenue. The currency weakened 1.3 percent to 3.4250 per dollar as of 10:38 a.m. in Kuala Lumpur, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The ringgit has dropped 2.3 percent in two days, the sharpest decline since June 1998.

• Commodities Retreat to Five-Year Low as Oil Tumbles With Gold. Commodities fell to the lowest level in more than five years as oil sank on prospects for a glut, gold fell after Swiss voters rejected a move to force the central bank to buy more bullion and data from China confirmed a slowdown in the world’s top user of fuels and metals. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) of 22 raw materials lost as much as 1.3 percent to 111.4738, the lowest level since May 2009, and traded at 111.4777 at 11:03 a.m. in Singapore. West Texas Intermediate crude fell below $65 a barrel for the first time since July 2009, while gold, silver and copper declined.

• Miners ‘Covering Their Eyes’ on China’s Commodity Cliff. After spending $1 trillion since 2002 on projects to feed China’s commodity boom, the world’s mining companies have a lot riding on their biggest customer. While commodities may be trading at five-year lows, the heads of three top miners BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), Vale SA (VALE3) and Rio Tinto Group (RIO) last week all backed China, the world’s second-biggest economy, to keep buying increasing amounts of their products deep into the next decade. Not everyone agrees. “The commodity guys are just too optimistic,” Tao Dong, chief regional economist for Asia excluding Japan at Credit Suisse Group AG in Hong Kong, said in an interview, without referring to particular companies.

• BHP(BHP) Sees No Slowdown in Iron-Ore Supply Increase as Prices Slump. BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), the world’s biggest mining company, signaled there will be no slowdown in the drive by global iron-ore producers to boost production even as prices slump. “Even the iron-ore price where it is today can induce more volume,” Jimmy Wilson, BHP’s president of iron ore, said in an interview broadcast today by Australia’s Nine Network. “If that volume doesn’t come from our business, it’s going to come from other businesses around the world and other countries around the world.”

• OPEC Gusher to Hit Weakest Players, From Wildcatters to Iran. Saudi Arabia and its OPEC allies’ firm stand against cutting crude output to slow the plunge in oil prices has set the energy world on a painful course that will leave the weakest behind, from governments to U.S. wildcatters. A grand experiment has begun, one in which the cartel of producing nations -- sometimes called the central bank of oil -- is leaving the market to decide who is strongest and how to cut as much as 2 million barrels a day of surplus supply. 

Wall Street Journal: 

• Bond Funds Load Up on Cash. Portfolio Managers Gird for Volatility Amid Expected Rate Increase. Large bond funds are holding the most cash since the financial crisis as portfolio managers brace for potential price swings and unruly trading ahead of an expected Federal Reserve rate increase in 2015.

• Russian Firms Hire Lobbyists to Fight Senate Sanctions. Energy Company Partly Owned by Friend of Putin Spends at Least $280,000 on Effort. A Russian energy company partly owned by a friend of President Vladimir Putin has spent at least $280,000 in lobbying fees in the U.S. aimed in part at opposing a Senate bill that seeks to broaden U.S. economic sanctions against Russia for invading Ukraine, according to lobbying-disclosure records.

• The Global Shakeout From Plunging Oil by Daniel Yergin. New supply—rather than demand—is dominating the market, and OPEC has been caught by surprise.  

MarketWatch.com:

• China's slowdown hits iron-ore prices. China's hunger for minerals to build skyscrapers, cars and bridges produced a decadelong surge in the price and production of key commodities. Now, exporting nations are feeling the hit as the China-fueled boom slows. Topping the list are big commodity players Australia and Brazil, but also smaller resource-rich countries, such as Guinea, Indonesia and Mongolia, where minerals make up a disproportionate share of the economy and employment.

CNBC:

• WHO: Ebola Toll Leaps Higher to Nearly 7,000 in West Africa. (video) The death toll from the worst Ebola outbreak on record has reached nearly 7,000 in West Africa, the World Health Organization said on Saturday. The toll of 6,928 dead showed a leap of just over 1,200 since the WHO released its previous report on Wednesday. The U.N. health agency did not provide any explanation for the abrupt increase, but the figures, published on its website, appeared to include previously unreported deaths. A WHO spokesperson was not immediately available for comment.

Zero Hedge:

• What Can Hong Kong And Cuba Teach Us About Economic Policy?

• The First Oil-Exporting Casualty Of The Crude Carnage: Venezuela.

• Treasury Yields Crater To 19-Month Lows After Stocks Close. (graph)

• Crude Crashes Most In Over 5 Years.

• Crude Carnage Continues After Close: WTI Now $65 Handle, Lowest Since 2009. (graph)

• As Japanese Bankruptcies Soar, Goldman Warns "Further Yen Depreciation Could Be A Net Burden". (graph)

• Macau Is 'Near Broken'.

• Italy's Temporary "Glass Half Full" Insanity. (graph)

• Federal Reserve Confirms Biggest Foreign Gold Withdrawal In Over Ten Years. (graph)

• The Yellow Cab Bubble Pops: Taxi Medallion Prices Tumble 17% From Last Year's Record Highs. (graph)

• "Panic Selling" Saudi Stocks Crash Into Bear Market Following OPEC Decision. (graph)

• Swiss Gold Referendum Fails: 78% Vote Against "Protecting The Country's Wealth".

• Holiday Spending Season Begins With Decline At Brick-And-Mortar Outlets Offset By Jump In Online Purchases. (graph)

• Russia's Patience Is Wearing Thin.

• 'We Are Entering A New Oil Normal".

• The Imploding Energy Sector Is Responsible For A Third Of S&P 500 Capex. (graph)

• Retail Disaster: Holiday Sales Crater by 11%, Online Spend Declines: NRF Blames Shopping Fiasco On "Stronger Economy". (graph)

• Crude Carnage Goes Contagious As Brevan Howard Liquidates Underperforming Commodity Fund. (graph)

• "Why Anyone Believes Printing Money Will Leave Us Better Off Is Beyond Me".

• China Manufacturing PMI Drops To 8-Month Lows, Teeters On Brink Of Contraction. (graph)

Business Insider:

• Macau Is 'Near Broken'.

• CEOs Could Be Getting Ready To Revolt Against Obamacare.

• This Is The Chart Of The Year. (graph)

• Americans Bought Guns at a Record-Setting Clip on Black Friday.

• Japan Is Losing Faith In Abenomics.

• Chinese Home Prices Slide For The 7th Straight Month.

• Egypt Erupts In Protests Over Verdict For Its Ousted President.

• Uber Takes Tons Of Your Private Data — But So Does Lyft.

• The Weekend Is Over And Oil Is Getting Crushed.

• OIL GIANT WARNS: Crude Could Crash To $30.

• The Aussie Dollar Just Tanked To A 4-Year Low. (graph)

NY Post:

• Terrorists Plotting to Blow Up 5 Planes in Christmas 'Spectacular': Report. Terrorists are plotting to blow up five passenger planes from European cities as part of a Christmas “spectacular,” according to a new report. “Everyone is expecting something catastrophic very soon,” a well-placed source told Britain’s Sunday Express. “We’ve been told that five planes are being targeted in a high-profile hit before Christmas. They’ve been waiting for the big one.” A source told The Post that London authorities were the first to uncover the threat, which would involve mid-air bombings. “There is a credible threat that they’re concerned about. They’ve known about it for awhile,’’ a source said.

Mainichi:

• Majority in Japan Say Abenomics Didn't Improve Economy. 70% of Japanese say economy hasn't improved on Abenomics, according to a Mainichi poll conducted Nov. 29- Nov. 30. Among those supporting the Cabinet, 50% say economy hasn't improved on Abenomics; 91% of those opposing the Cabinet say Abenomics hasn't improved the economy.

ABC:

• Australia Govt to Lower Assumed Iron Ore Price to $60/Ton.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -1.50% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.0 +1.0 basis point.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 62.25 -.25 basis point.

• FTSE-100 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures -.37%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.25%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (MFRM)/.70

• (SCVL)/.48

• (HGR)/.44

• (THO)/.81

Economic Releases
9:45 am EST

• Final Markit US Manufacturing PMI for November is estimated to rise to 55.0 versus 54.7 in October.  

10:00 am EST

• ISM Manufacturing for November is estimated to fall to 58.0 versus 59.0 in October.

• ISM Prices Paid for November is estimated to fall to 52.5 versus 53.5 in October.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Dudley speaking, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, Reserve Bank of Australia Decision, Cowen Energy Conference, CSFB Tech Conference and the (BEAV) investor meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintian losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

Week Ahead by Bloomberg. 
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on global growth worries, Russia/Ukraine tensions, rising European/Emerging Markets debt angst, profit-taking and technical selling. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.